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MAVS BACK IN THE WIN COLUMN AGAINST PISTONS

The Mavericks snapped a 4-game home losing streak, and took away a much-needed victory in their chase for the sixth seed. 


GAME STORY

Looking for an infusion of first-quarter energy, Rick substituted Powell for Maxi in the starting lineup. 

After going down 2-8 to start the game, the Mavs briefly attained the lead around five minutes in.  They were soon down by three possessions, but managed to pull within three points by the end of the first quarter, trailing 33-36. Jerami Grant had a 15-point frame for Detroit. Luka led the Mavs with 11. 

Things turned quite physical to begin the second. Tyler Cook barreled over Maxi on an offensive foul that left Kleber lying on the ground trying to catch his breath. Willie was sent to the floor on the next play. Soon, Maxi could be seen heading to the bench grabbing his hip, Luka followed with a bleeding elbow, and WCS asked out of the game, appearing winded. After trying to play through his injury, Maxi went to the locker room for good with a back bruise resulting from the charge. 

The Mavs broke out their zone defense, which proved effective in limiting Detroit’s inside game. Jerami Grant exited the floor with his third foul. The Mavericks closed the half on a 12-2 run, leading 67-58 going into the locker room. Brunson was excellent, displaying his versatility with a 13-point period. KP chipped in 9. Detroit was held to 22 points. 

The two teams engaged in a lot of basket trading in the third, and the Mavs extended their lead by a point, leading 100-90 after thirty-six minutes. 

The Mavs held a double-digit lead for most of the fourth. A scoreless period of over four minutes for Dallas in the middle of the quarter ended with a pair of Luka free throws, a steal and breakaway dunk for KP, and a kickout from Luka to THJ for a corner three. Three players fouled out in the last couple minutes — KP, WCS, and Plumlee. Aside from that, Dallas closed the game comfortably. 


STATISTICS

The Mavericks dominated many of the stat categories. They put up 13 more attempts than the Pistons, and 11 more 3PTAs. Both teams had respectable nights from three — Pistons 41%, Mavs 37%. Dallas had only 6 turnovers in the entire game, and had advantages of 52-40 in PIP, 21-12 in second-chance points, and 13-4 in fast-break points. The second quarter was the clincher for the home team Mavs, who were a combined -2 in the other three periods. Going to the zone and getting Grant into foul trouble enabled the Mavericks to gain control. 


PLAYERS

BRUNSON. Jalen had a remarkable game, with 20 points and 5 assists in a 29-minute sixth-man role, on 8-12 shooting. Someone besides the stars needed to step up in a big way, and in this contest, it was JB. 

DONCIC.  Luka was one assist shy of a triple-double, with 30 points, 10 boards, 9 dimes, and 2 steals. If one wanted to be picky about it, he was 4-11 from three and 6-10 from the line, but OTOH, he had only 3 turnovers and was able to keep his minutes to 33. He played a part in keeping Grant in foul trouble, drawing a second on him late in the first. Toward the end of the second, he had a spectacular Eurostep-lob for a DFS dunk. The What-A-Burger Play of the Day was his looooong three off the glass in the third. 

PORZINGIS. KP had a solid outing, recording a 19/7/4 line, to go with three steals. He was 6-13 from the field and 2-5 from distance. His offense was balanced, as he scored in a variety of ways. He fouled out on an ill-advised hack of a jump shooter (at least his second such foul in the match), but the game was more or less in hand by that point anyway. The other Mavs seemed to be making a concerted effort to involve him. Toward the middle of the second, he had a fast-break jumper from Redick, followed by a fadeaway bank shot from Brunson. Perhaps one of his most important statistics was his minutes, considering the coming back-to-back -- a moderate 33. 

POWELL. Dwight had 6 points and three boards in 11 minutes as a starter, including a highlight-reel put back after a chase-down block of a Luka shot. I think his brief outing was attributable to his being rendered irrelevant defensively by Jerami Grant. As to why he was out there so early, Rick said he thought the starting lineup needed a change, and he put Dwight in because #7 had changed the Sac game with hard physical play and had some history playing as a starter with the rest of the group. He further observed that Powell’s ethic represents everything the Mavs want to be as a team. THJ further complimented Dwight as being a hard worker and always giving his best. 

STARTERSDorian had 11 points, including three triples, and won the DPOG award for limiting Grant in the second half. I thought Richardson bounced back to a degree from the Sac game, and registered 12 points in 28 minutes. He had an exciting moment in the first with a stumble through a double team for a circus-shot and-one, although he missed the free throw.

BENCH. THJ had a decent showing, especially considering that he was playing through an illness, with 15 points on 6-13 shooting in 26 minutes. Maxi had 5 rebounds in a night cut short by injury. Rick reported after the game that Kleber has a pretty bad bruise, and they will assess his ability to get back on the court in the morning.  Willie got a runout, filling in for the injured Maxi. He had 8 points and 4 rebounds in 13 minutes, and fouled out in the last minute of the game. Redick had a couple of threes to give the team a lift in a 12-minute showing. I wouldn’t mind seeing a little more of JJ, although I understand that his heel is still bothersome, so I don’t know how realistic that is. Melli recorded a rebound and a steal in 6 minutes. 

PISTONS.  Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph combined to lay 50 points on the Mavs. Fortunately for the home team, foul trouble for Grant limited him to 27 minutes overall, and a combined three minutes in the second and third quarters. Mason Plumlee registered a 13/16/7 line and fouled out near the end of the game. Josh Jackson had 12 points on 5-10 shooting. Saddiq Bey and former Mav Wayne Ellington put up 11 apiece. Although the Pistons have a poor record, they were far from pushovers. 


OBSERVATIONS

Carlisle noted the rough start, but was proud of his guys for maintaining their poise, getting back on track in the second quarter, and staying with Detroit in the second half. He denied that he has gone to a new starting unit going forward, and said lineups will remain fluid, depending on matchups. 

It was great to see the Mavericks with a win at home, even if it was against one of the league’s cellar dwellers. They face the Lakers Thursday night, for the second game of a back-to-back. Anthony Davis has said he will return to the court if he is feeling all right, and he is a handful for the Mavs, or any other team, to deal with. Maxi may or may not be available. It will not be a scheduled rest game for Porzingis, but whether he plays will depend on how he feels. Rick hopes he can go, and most fans probably join him in that desire. 

With Portland’s loss to Denver, the Mavs are half a game behind Portland. However, the next two games are against the Lakers, and that is a team that can never be taken lightly, with or without AD. 

The Mavericks' overall energy was on an uptick, and hopefully, this contest represents a step in the right direction for the team.
Best lineups were with KP/JRich sitting.  The team was +13 in those minutes.  Carlisle normally subs out two players half way through the first and third.  It was three last night with KP/JRich staying on the floor with THJ/Brunson/Maxi or THJ/Brunson/Melli.  Those groupings held their own.  But, when KP/JRich subsequently went out together, the team that remained played well (which is why JRich was -14 for the night).

When KP/JRich sat, Luka was in with 3 to 4 subs.  But, it wasn't the same subs each half.  The common players each time were THJ and WCS.  Willie only played when KP sat and except for a few seconds only played with Luka in.  This may be a side benefit of Powell starting...a consistent role for WCS with Luka against the bench players.

There were few minutes outside first six of each half with Luka/KP together.  The team was only +2 with both on the floor together.

The starters really only play together the first few minutes of each half.  If there is a disappointment, it is they didn't do anything with the starters of a bad team.  The starter minutes were -2.  The non-Luka minutes were +3 (mainly because Brunson went nuts in the mid second quarter).  It really was the Luka + bench guys squad that carried the win.

Rotation was set up for Brunson to be the closer of each half with long stretches in the 2nd and 4th.  In both cases JRich sat the final minutes to end each half with THJ replacing him.
Still trying to figure out why Melli dropped out of the rotation. He obviously isn´t a big time boxscore stuffer but looking at net impact and on/off numbers he has been incredible.

Small sample sizer alert but...
In 159 minutes with Melli on the floor the Mavs have a 98.4 D-Rating. Without him it is 114.5.

With Kleber´s recent slump and the overall exhaustion I really don´t get why RC reduced his minutes.
(04-22-2021, 04:28 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Still trying to figure out why Melli dropped out of the rotation.


I think he is trying to figure it out as well. His body language at times has been really depressed and disappointed. Especially last night when he played a stint of what felt like 30 seconds...he looked so bummed going back to his seat.
(04-22-2021, 02:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]In both cases JRich sat the final minutes to end each half with THJ replacing him.

RC benching JR at the end of halves has been good, but he still plays him way more minutes than his play deserves IMO.
A win is a win, but things just aren't clicking yet.    I will be interested how they play tonight after a relatively physical game.

I didn't feel like Bey played 27 minutes last night.  I was anxious to watch him closely.  A pretty quiet game from him.  I didn't expect him to shoot so well from three as a rookie or to shoot as many threes as he has this year.   He is a real solid player.   Really knows how to play.    I am not sure of his upside though.

I am actually more impressed with Stewart.   19 years old and built like that.    Plus, the scouts who went to practices at Washington last year said he has a good touch as well and may be able to develop three point range in time.    I would love a player like him who you can put in the game and he just wrecks things.  He always plays hard too.  There were a few times when Luka, who bullies everyone, put a body on Stewart and Stewart treated Luka like a rag doll.   Really impressed with him.
A couple more thoughts...

I liked the way KP was used last night.  One post up with most of his two point attempts coming off movement (either a KP two dribble drive and pull-up or a flash and turn around).  I don't know if 13 attempts (second most) is the right number or not and I wish he hit a few more of those open 3's he takes, but I liked the rest of this.  If they stick with Powell/KP getting time together and if they don't want to marginalize KP by making him stand around the perimeter, then they need to find him in the flow or get him cutting to a spot for a 15-17 footer.  I like that action better than the post up because I feel KP is about to get his pocket picked the entire time he has it with his back to the basket.

I pay a little more attention when Redick is in the game.  It is like I expect something good to happen.  More than anything, I wish I could combine that shooting with a little more size and D and create a starter in the place of Richardson.  When they go with Powell as a starter, it is pretty easy to see that the keepers in the starting lineup are Luka/DFS/KP.  I'm a fan of Maxi/Brunson/THJ (depending on price) and Powell on the bench.  The key is filling those two starter spots.  One thing about the Powell experiment (if it lasts) is we can see how a Holmes acquisition might look (basically a better version of Powell).  Can you split $34mm between Holmes and Fournier?  You lose THJ in the process, but Green (and Bey) have to eventually be worked in.  Green's D at the backup SG/SF would help to offset the mediocre D you get with Fournier.  But, at least Fournier gives you that third guard to rotate with Luka and Brunson where there are always two creator/shooter types on the floor at all times.
(04-22-2021, 07:20 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]A couple more thoughts...

I liked the way KP was used last night.  One post up with most of his two point attempts coming off movement (either a KP two dribble drive and pull-up or a flash and turn around).  I don't know if 13 attempts (second most) is the right number or not and I wish he hit a few more of those open 3's he takes, but I liked the rest of this.  If they stick with Powell/KP getting time together and if they don't want to marginalize KP by making him stand around the perimeter, then they need to find him in the flow or get him cutting to a spot for a 15-17 footer.  I like that action better than the post up because I feel KP is about to get his pocket picked the entire time he has it with his back to the basket.

I pay a little more attention when Redick is in the game.  It is like I expect something good to happen.  More than anything, I wish I could combine that shooting with a little more size and D and create a starter in the place of Richardson.  When they go with Powell as a starter, it is pretty easy to see that the keepers in the starting lineup are Luka/DFS/KP.  I'm a fan of Maxi/Brunson/THJ (depending on price) and Powell on the bench.  The key is filling those two starter spots.  One thing about the Powell experiment (if it lasts) is we can see how a Holmes acquisition might look (basically a better version of Powell).  Can you split $34mm between Holmes and Fournier?  You lose THJ in the process, but Green (and Bey) have to eventually be worked in.  Green's D at the backup SG/SF would help to offset the mediocre D you get with Fournier.  But, at least Fournier gives you that third guard to rotate with Luka and Brunson where there are always two creator/shooter types on the floor at all times.

And yet, according to Locked on Mavs, KP assists or scores 70% of the time on postups and that is the third highest percentage for players with 4 or more postups per game.  That is third highest in the league and higher than a lot of surprising names (Embiid, Giannis, Jokic, according to them).  He normally has 5.5 attempts/game.  That shocked me, but they are usually pretty reliable on stats.  It's at the 14:15 mark in the pod.  They use synergy for the source, I think.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lu...0517851714
(04-22-2021, 07:36 AM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]And yet, according to Locked on Mavs, KP assists or scores 70% of the time on postups and that is the third highest percentage for players with 4 or more postups per game.  That is third highest in the league and higher than a lot of surprising names (Embiid, Giannis, Jokic, according to them).  He normally has 5.5 attempts/game.  That shocked me, but they are usually pretty reliable on stats.  It's at the 14:15 mark in the pod.  They use synergy for the source, I think.

I heard that yesterday.  I'm certainly dubious from an eye-test standpoint.  

I don't have access to synergy, but their numbers don't make sense statistically either.  KP shoots .404 from 10-16 feet (where his post-ups tend to come from) and gets 16% of his 16.3 shots per game from there.  That is 2.6 shots per game and he makes 1.05.  He gets 1.7 assists per game.  So, that is 2.75 scores or assists per game and doesn't come close to 70% of 5.5 post possessions per game (and that is if 100% of his 10-16 foot shots were post ups...they are not).  Even if you added 100% of his 3-10 foot shots and 100% of his 10-16 foot shots, you don't get to 5.5 attempts (let alone 5.5 post attempts).  Something feels off.
(04-22-2021, 08:11 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I heard that yesterday.  I'm certainly dubious from an eye-test standpoint.  

I don't have access to synergy, but their numbers don't make sense statistically either.  KP shoots .404 from 10-16 feet (where his post-ups tend to come from) and gets 16% of his 16.3 shots per game from there.  That is 2.6 shots per game and he makes 1.05.  He gets 1.7 assists per game.  So, that is 2.75 scores or assists per game and doesn't come close to 70% of 5.5 post possessions per game (and that is if 100% of his 10-16 foot shots were post ups...they are not).  Even if you added 100% of his 3-10 foot shots and 100% of his 10-16 foot shots, you don't get to 5.5 attempts (let alone 5.5 post attempts).  Something feels off.

Maybe they are calling a postup inside 10 feet...as in when he pins a guard off the switch?  Or maybe they are factoring those inside 10 feet statistics in with the ones from 10-16 feet that you are pointing to and that squares the numbers?

Is your 10-16 feet postup number eye test or trackable?
(04-22-2021, 07:19 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I am actually more impressed with Stewart.   19 years old and built like that.    Plus, the scouts who went to practices at Washington last year said he has a good touch as well and may be able to develop three point range in time.    I would love a player like him who you can put in the game and he just wrecks things.  He always plays hard too.  There were a few times when Luka, who bullies everyone, put a body on Stewart and Stewart treated Luka like a rag doll.   Really impressed with him.

He definitely has a chip on his shoulder.  Supposedly Stewart has a long running vendetta against James Wiseman dating back to their AAU days.    Stewart always thought Wiseman was the media and recruiting darling and resented it.     Evidently he would just bully Wiseman in their head to head matchups.
The most promising takeaway from last night for me is that Brunson looks like he's breaking out of his funk.    If Brunson and THJ aren't feasting on the other team's 2nd unit, the Mavs lose one of their key advantages.
(04-22-2021, 08:24 AM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe they are calling a postup inside 10 feet...as in when he pins a guard off the switch?  Or maybe they are factoring those inside 10 feet statistics in with the ones from 10-16 feet that you are pointing to and that squares the numbers?

Is your 10-16 feet postup number eye test or trackable?

That's a good point.  My thought that some portion of his post-ups come from 10-16 feet is eye test.  But, knowing that I added the 3-10's and still don't get enough attempts to get to 5.5 posts per game.  It didn't dawn on me that BBall-Ref might classify any of his posts as 0-3 because almost none of them are (again...eye test).  If you combine all of his 0-3's and all of his 3-10's, that is 6.1 shots a game.  That is enough to cover 5.5 post attempts, but only if 90% of all 0-3's and 3-10's are post ups.  It wouldn't hurt my feelings to be proven wrong as it would be good for the team.  But my instincts backed by insufficient data says no.
Going with NBA.com numbers.

Tracking data for all post up touches.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/tracking-post-ups/?sort=POST_TOUCHES&dir=1&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*porzingis&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612742

Playtype data for post up attempts that end with a shot attempt/shooting foul/tov.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/playtype-post-up/?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*porzingis&SeasonType=Regular%20Season


0.99PPP when he finishes the play himself. 0.4tov. 0.2ast. I guess the mentioned 70% number is about the points percentage. KP scores 3.7pts on 5.4 post up touches. One of the best numbers in the league. But post up touches include all possessions and it is easy to understand why he looks really good. He rarely passes out of the post. Meaning that nearly all of his post touches end with shot attempts, fouls or tov.
For comparisation: Jokic 9.4 touches / 5.4 pts. 3.8 passes. Leading to less points per post up touch.
DP + WCS = PnR back on the menu

More zone defense as well last night

Good to mix things up. It feels desperate but here we are. Truly amazing we can move up to 6th tonight with a win(seems like that says more about Portland than it does us)
Detroit couldn´t get a stop when Plumlee was on the floor. Cannot protect the rim. Cannot defend in space. Was a completly different story when Stewart was in the game. Limiting Stewarts minutes and starting Plumlee has been the go to sneaky tank move for them.
(04-22-2021, 08:11 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I heard that yesterday.  I'm certainly dubious from an eye-test standpoint.  

I don't have access to synergy, but their numbers don't make sense statistically either.  KP shoots .404 from 10-16 feet (where his post-ups tend to come from) and gets 16% of his 16.3 shots per game from there.  That is 2.6 shots per game and he makes 1.05.  He gets 1.7 assists per game.  So, that is 2.75 scores or assists per game and doesn't come close to 70% of 5.5 post possessions per game (and that is if 100% of his 10-16 foot shots were post ups...they are not).  Even if you added 100% of his 3-10 foot shots and 100% of his 10-16 foot shots, you don't get to 5.5 attempts (let alone 5.5 post attempts).  Something feels off.


The numbers they are probably refering to are as explained below based on stats from nba.com. KP has 5.5 post ups per game. He shoots 2.8 attempts and scores on 1.4, which is 50 %. He also gets 0.7 points from FT from those 5.5 post ups. Together this means 3.5 points from 5.5 post ups or 68 %. He has 4.4 % assists from those post up attempts and you get to a little over 70 % by adding it to previously mentioned 68 %. Whatever that 70 % actually means. Certainly not that he scores or assists on 70 % of tries. He is 3rd best in NBA in this category, but there are many more efficient plays for Mavs to do, as posted yesterday.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/tracki...ST_TOUCHES&dir=1

Edit: Dirkfan already explained, saw it too late
(04-22-2021, 11:00 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Going with NBA.com numbers.

Tracking data for all post up touches.
 

Playtype data for post up attempts that end with a shot attempt/shooting foul/tov.

0.99PPP when he finishes the play himself. 0.4tov. 0.2ast. I guess the mentioned 70% number is about the points percentage. KP scores 3.7pts on 5.4 post up touches. One of the best numbers in the league. But post up touches include all possessions and it is easy to understand why he looks really good. He rarely passes out of the post. Meaning that nearly all of his post touches end with shot attempts, fouls or tov.
For comparisation: Jokic 9.4 touches / 5.4 pts. 3.8 passes. Leading to less points per post up touch.


Thanks for posting that.  The data is a little confusing as the first set has him at 5.4 "post up touches" per game and the second has him at 4.0 post ups per game.  Whatever it is that is counted in the first and not the second makes KP look really good.

But, even in the second set, if you screen for players who have a 20% or higher frequency, KP isn't too bad.  There are 19 of those (some changed teams and count twice) and KP is 9/10/11 in most measures.  It doesn't suck to have the 10th (?) best post up guy in the league who also hits 36% on 3's.
(04-22-2021, 12:12 PM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson was really going off in the PnR, particularly with KP as his screen partner. 

 

The team was +15 in the first half when KP and Brunson played together.  They were -7 in the second half.  I'll try to watch for this more.
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