MavsBoard

I looked for a Richardson thread to add this to and couldn’t find it. Sorry.

Reading Kam’s take that Josh has made the Mavs worse on D motivated me to look at some numbers. And I’ve posted them below for whatever they’re worth. I get that Kam is great with data (even though there are limits to the value of things like on/off numbers, which he readily admits). But just calling my sense of Richardson’s defensive contributions the “eye test” seems to overly trivialize it. So I figured I would bring something more than mere opinion to support my take that Josh has been PRECISELY what this team needed on D. Here goes:

Devin Booker vs. Mavs
This season: 22 pts, 24 (2.1 below season average of 25.1)
Last season: 18, 32, 30, 27 (0.2 above season average of 26.6)

Jamal Murray vs. Mavs
This season: 21, 16, 10 (5.4 below season average of 21.1)
Last season: 16, 14, 25 (0.3 above season average of 18.5)

Dame Lilliard vs. Mavs
This season: 34, 31, 19 (2.0 below season average of 30.0)
Last season: 28, 34, 47, 61 (12.5 above season average of, again, 30.0)

I tried to find other examples but Donovan Mitchell hasn’t played against the Mavs this year, Zach Lavine has only 3 games against us over the past 2 years, with his only big outing during Josh’s Covid recovery. Others had switched teams and didn’t seem like comparable comparisons. So these seemed like the best fits for what I wanted to test. And all 3 tell the same story: Richardson’s D keeps elite guards from going ballistic on the Mavs, making us far less vulnerable defensively than we were last season. 

And that’s exactly what I thought I was seeing. Guards don’t regularly have career outings vs. this version of your Dallas Mavericks like they so often have in the past. 

Now, bigs? That’s a different story. It seems like powerful interior players are still having their way with us, more so than last year even. Whether there are numbers to support that take is a topic for another day. But if there are, then I suspect this has more to do with the declining defensive rating numbers that Kam keeps referencing. And Josh is not the cause of that.

Good thing we aren't on Tender.

I think the on/off numbers will eventually show Josh to be a big positive on defense. With joining a new team, his own covid struggles, and the Mavs KP and covid related defensive struggles, I don't think the season numbers reflect what will be.

(03-26-2021, 12:09 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Good thing we aren't on Tender.

POTW.

Problem is that in some cases DFS was the primary defender. Not to mention that I can find a similar or even bigger number of games where opposing wings/guards torched the Mavs.

Defensive stats are noisy and even tracking data can be misleading but Richardson is below average in most metrics.

Quick comparisation:

Defended FG% (from 3):
THJ -4.5% (-2.5%)
DFS +0.1 (+3.6)
JRich +1.6% (+5.6%)

DBPM (boxscore summary):
DFS -0.3
JRich -0.5
THJ -1.8

Raw defensive on/off
DFS +3.5
JRich +4.4
THJ +5.6

DRPM:
DFS +0.68
THJ -0.45
JRich -0.67

DRaptor:
DFS +0.6
THJ 0.0
JRich -1.0

DLeBron (PIMP):
DFS +0.24
Richardson -0.70
THJ -1.79

Hustle stats:

Deflections
JRich 2.1
DFS 1.9
THJ 1.1

Contested shots
DFS 5.5
THJ 5.2
JRich 4.3

Just looking at Defensive Raptor (which is based on on/off numbers) there is definitely an advantage to being a 2nd stringer shooting guard who gets most  of your minutes while the top line scorers are getting a breather or sitting out in garbage time.   There are a lot of names like Alec Caruso, David Nwaba, Garrett Temple, Hamidou Diallo and Josh Okogie with really high RAPTOR marks among players with at least 600 minutes played.

Let's look at the on/off stats again for defense....

All season
On: 113.7 (1056 mins)
Off: 107.7 (965 mins)
Net: -6.0 (3rd worst on the team behind Luka and KP who is the worst by far)

His rating with Luka is 114.4, with KP is 116.3....so him playing with those guys has brought down his numbers some.



But let's look at the more recent stretch where the team is playing better D overall. Has JR's impact improved? 


Last 15 games
On: 109.1 (480 mins)
Off: 104.8 (240 mins)
Net: -4.3 (5th worst on team)

With Luka 108.8, with KP 107.4...so in the last 15 games his rating with Luka/KP has been better, so they haven't been bringing him down.


Last 10 games
On: 110.0 (332 mins)
Off: 103.3 (148 mins)
Net: -6.7 (worst on the team)

With Luka 108.5, with KP 107.1...so again Luka/KP are NOT hurting his numbers in the last 10 either.


There might be some things I have not seen that could explain some of what is going on, but when a player is dead last on the whole team (or close to) you can conclude quite confidently that this player is hurting the team in that area in some form or fashion (or his mesh with certain teammates is hurting the team).


Quick comments on my eye-test:

1) JR is a "flop" and "flail" kind of guy (you see this when he gets fouled and sprawls on the ground). 

2) This makes it seem that JR is giving good effort (which he usually is) AND it creates the illusion that he is playing great D. 

3) When I specifically watch JR play D I do NOT see an above average defender. I see a guy flying and flailing around the court, but I do NOT see a lock down defender and I do not see a guy who is playing elite help/team D. 

Point is this: Really take some time and watch JR play D (on ball D and off ball help D), he is not that good at it IMO. And the numbers bear this out this year. I think he has the potential to be a more average defender (what he was in MIA and PHI), but in no way do I think he will ever become a "defensive stopper" and I think asking him to be a "defensive stopper" like RC has done only makes things worse. 


Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

(03-26-2021, 02:39 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

Seconded.  JRich can still opt in though.

(03-26-2021, 02:52 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Seconded.  JRich can still opt in though.

Count me in. THJ's offense is more valuable and consistent. He has earned his right to stay with Luka.

(03-26-2021, 02:39 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Quick comments on my eye-test:

1) JR is a "flop" and "flail" kind of guy (you see this when he gets fouled and sprawls on the ground). 

2) This makes it seem that JR is giving good effort (which he usually is) AND it creates the illusion that he is playing great D. 

3) When I specifically watch JR play D I do NOT see an above average defender. I see a guy flying and flailing around the court, but I do NOT see a lock down defender and I do not see a guy who is playing elite help/team D. 

Point is this: Really take some time and watch JR play D (on ball D and off ball help D), he is not that good at it IMO. And the numbers bear this out this year. I think he has the potential to be a more average defender (what he was in MIA and PHI), but in no way do I think he will ever become a "defensive stopper" and I think asking him to be a "defensive stopper" like RC has done only makes things worse. 


Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

Outstanding articulation of this, and it matches my eye test conclusions pretty much exactly. I think Richardson is a decent player with a chance to get better as he plays here over time (if he does) and I don't want to throw him in the trash, but this "great defender" rep he has on this board simply started as a "grass is greener" evaluation of his game from afar and then hasn't been let go of yet by many. My opinion. 

Also, I get a bonus check from the government every time a Mavs fan types your last sentence, so thanks!

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(03-26-2021, 02:52 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Seconded.  JRich can still opt in though.

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(03-26-2021, 05:50 PM)Time Machine Dirk Wrote: [ -> ]Count me in. THJ's offense is more valuable and consistent. He has earned his right to stay with Luka.

(03-26-2021, 02:39 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Let's look at the on/off stats again for defense....

All season
On: 113.7 (1056 mins)
Off: 107.7 (965 mins)
Net: -6.0 (3rd worst on the team behind Luka and KP who is the worst by far)

His rating with Luka is 114.4, with KP is 116.3....so him playing with those guys has brought down his numbers some.



But let's look at the more recent stretch where the team is playing better D overall. Has JR's impact improved? 


Last 15 games
On: 109.1 (480 mins)
Off: 104.8 (240 mins)
Net: -4.3 (5th worst on team)

With Luka 108.8, with KP 107.4...so in the last 15 games his rating with Luka/KP has been better, so they haven't been bringing him down.


Last 10 games
On: 110.0 (332 mins)
Off: 103.3 (148 mins)
Net: -6.7 (worst on the team)

With Luka 108.5, with KP 107.1...so again Luka/KP are NOT hurting his numbers in the last 10 either.


There might be some things I have not seen that could explain some of what is going on, but when a player is dead last on the whole team (or close to) you can conclude quite confidently that this player is hurting the team in that area in some form or fashion (or his mesh with certain teammates is hurting the team).


Quick comments on my eye-test:

1) JR is a "flop" and "flail" kind of guy (you see this when he gets fouled and sprawls on the ground). 

2) This makes it seem that JR is giving good effort (which he usually is) AND it creates the illusion that he is playing great D. 

3) When I specifically watch JR play D I do NOT see an above average defender. I see a guy flying and flailing around the court, but I do NOT see a lock down defender and I do not see a guy who is playing elite help/team D. 

Point is this: Really take some time and watch JR play D (on ball D and off ball help D), he is not that good at it IMO. And the numbers bear this out this year. I think he has the potential to be a more average defender (what he was in MIA and PHI), but in no way do I think he will ever become a "defensive stopper" and I think asking him to be a "defensive stopper" like RC has done only makes things worse. 


Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

I see what you mean. JRich was needed without Luka tonight and he played dreadful. Maybe this is who he is. He’s better off opting in I think so he’s probably a Mav for another year.

I really don’t think most of you are evaluating D thoughtfully. Below are the results of each Indiana possession tonight in which Richardson was defending or near the shooter. I watched the replay, hit pause, and took notes. It was obvious that the Pacers were trying to avoid Richardson, leaving whomever he guarded entirely out of most offensive plays. It was equally obvious that the Mavs switched him onto hot shooters, which caused them to quit shooting. 


Q1
10:20 guarding Levert, gets screened and Levert gets the assist to Sabonis
9:50 guarding Levert’s missed 3
6:18 steal from Turner
5:55 guarding Brogdon’s missed 3
3:56 nearest zone defender to Brogdon’s made 3 but was screened off
Q2
8:50 comes off McDermott to pick up wide open Turner at the 3 point line, who assists to McDermott for wide open 3
6:08 blocks McDermott on the way up for another 3 attempt
5:50 nearest guy to Lamb as he airballs an open, transition 3
1:35 gets beat by Brogdon to the rim where shot is blocked by Porzingis
Q3
11:44 steals inbounds for fastbreak score
10:50 gives help defense on Levert drive, resulting in miss and grabs rebound
9:06 hounds Brogdon to half court and back to 3 pt line, forcing missed 3, and runs down rebound
4:23 strips ball from McConnell
0:40 helps on Sumner’s drive, resulting in miss
0:10 harasses Lamb into wild missed 3 with shot clock running out
Q4
6:11 gives up 3 to Brogdon*
4:46 contests Turner 3, which misses


* This was his only bad defensive play of the game that resulted in points. There were other errors. But none of them cost points. Not a single one. Just this 3, which he contested, but not closely enough. It was a very good defensive performance. Like the rest of you, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his offense. But if you thought he played anything less than stellar D, you weren’t paying close enough attention.

I dont believe in any advanced stats over a less than 100 game sample size, if not more.  I dont think he's a great defender but he's above average.

On off stats over 20-30 game sample sizes or plus minus over one game are complete idiocy. Someone here will have us believe JRich sucks and KP sucks and WCS is badass based on SSS on/off stats.   Same for Delon Wright.

(03-26-2021, 10:53 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: [ -> ]He’s better off opting in I think so he’s probably a Mav for another year.

I think this is best case scenario for him and the Mavs. If my theory is correct that he needs continuity with a team to really get his stuff going, it'll be MUCH better for his next contract, and the on court product the Mavs put out there. If not, it's better that we didn't resign him to a long overpaid contract.

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(03-27-2021, 12:09 AM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]I really don’t think most of you are evaluating D thoughtfully. Below are the results of each Indiana possession tonight in which Richardson was defending or near the shooter. I watched the replay, hit pause, and took notes. It was obvious that the Pacers were trying to avoid Richardson, leaving whomever he guarded entirely out of most offensive plays. It was equally obvious that the Mavs switched him onto hot shooters, which caused them to quit shooting. 


Q1
10:20 guarding Levert, gets screened and Levert gets the assist to Sabonis
9:50 guarding Levert’s missed 3
6:18 steal from Turner
5:55 guarding Brogdon’s missed 3
3:56 nearest zone defender to Brogdon’s made 3 but was screened off
Q2
8:50 comes off McDermott to pick up wide open Turner at the 3 point line, who assists to McDermott for wide open 3
6:08 blocks McDermott on the way up for another 3 attempt
5:50 nearest guy to Lamb as he airballs an open, transition 3
1:35 gets beat by Brogdon to the rim where shot is blocked by Porzingis
Q3
11:44 steals inbounds for fastbreak score
10:50 gives help defense on Levert drive, resulting in miss and grabs rebound
9:06 hounds Brogdon to half court and back to 3 pt line, forcing missed 3, and runs down rebound
4:23 strips ball from McConnell
0:40 helps on Sumner’s drive, resulting in miss
0:10 harasses Lamb into wild missed 3 with shot clock running out
Q4
6:11 gives up 3 to Brogdon*
4:46 contests Turner 3, which misses


* This was his only bad defensive play of the game that resulted in points. There were other errors. But none of them cost points. Not a single one. Just this 3, which he contested, but not closely enough. It was a very good defensive performance. Like the rest of you, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his offense. But if you thought he played anything less than stellar D, you weren’t paying close enough attention.

Good stuff, glad you took the time to really dive into it!

(03-26-2021, 10:53 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: [ -> ]I see what you mean. JRich was needed without Luka tonight and he played dreadful. Maybe this is who he is. He’s better off opting in I think so he’s probably a Mav for another year.

Is that better for the Mavs?   Maybe building some continuity is a good thing?  For instance, Mike Conley was pretty bad in Utah last year.  This year he looks like a different, better player.   Having Richardson opt in, would also allow us to slowly develop Green and not block him of a lot of playing time 2-3 years down the road. 

Is Richardson a similar skilled player as Justin Holliday with the Pacers?   Holiday shoots it a little better.  He signed a 3 year 18 million dollar contract this offseason.  Is the Richardson we have seen this year a 2X or 3X player of Holiday???

(03-27-2021, 08:35 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Is that better for the Mavs?   Maybe building some continuity is a good thing?  For instance, Mike Conley was pretty bad in Utah last year.  This year he looks like a different, better player.   Having Richardson opt in, would also allow us to slowly develop Green and not block him of a lot of playing time 2-3 years down the road. 

Is Richardson a similar skilled player as Justin Holliday with the Pacers?   Holiday shoots it a little better.  He signed a 3 year 18 million dollar contract this offseason.  Is the Richardson we have seen this year a 2X or 3X player of Holiday???

Conley has more skins on the wall.  More time with the team will help, but at his age, what Josh is doing is kind of what he is.  He's had better scoring seasons and seasons with more assists, but that's really not what he's being asked to do here.  His career low 3PT shooting is offset by career best 2PT and FT shooting.  He's a plus defender and an ok offensive player (surprisingly good at getting 2PT shots for himself, I don't really care for his drive and kicks and he can look a little out of control when handling on the perimeter).  

I have no idea what to pay him and maybe he opts in and makes that issue moot.  It seems like the demand for his services league wide was pretty low and I'm not sure his time here is going to change that.  I guess we'll see if he opts out.

(03-27-2021, 12:09 AM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]I really don’t think most of you are evaluating D thoughtfully. Below are the results of each Indiana possession tonight in which Richardson was defending or near the shooter. I watched the replay, hit pause, and took notes. It was obvious that the Pacers were trying to avoid Richardson, leaving whomever he guarded entirely out of most offensive plays. It was equally obvious that the Mavs switched him onto hot shooters, which caused them to quit shooting. 


Q1
10:20 guarding Levert, gets screened and Levert gets the assist to Sabonis
9:50 guarding Levert’s missed 3
6:18 steal from Turner
5:55 guarding Brogdon’s missed 3
3:56 nearest zone defender to Brogdon’s made 3 but was screened off
Q2
8:50 comes off McDermott to pick up wide open Turner at the 3 point line, who assists to McDermott for wide open 3
6:08 blocks McDermott on the way up for another 3 attempt
5:50 nearest guy to Lamb as he airballs an open, transition 3
1:35 gets beat by Brogdon to the rim where shot is blocked by Porzingis
Q3
11:44 steals inbounds for fastbreak score
10:50 gives help defense on Levert drive, resulting in miss and grabs rebound
9:06 hounds Brogdon to half court and back to 3 pt line, forcing missed 3, and runs down rebound
4:23 strips ball from McConnell
0:40 helps on Sumner’s drive, resulting in miss
0:10 harasses Lamb into wild missed 3 with shot clock running out
Q4
6:11 gives up 3 to Brogdon*
4:46 contests Turner 3, which misses


* This was his only bad defensive play of the game that resulted in points. There were other errors. But none of them cost points. Not a single one. Just this 3, which he contested, but not closely enough. It was a very good defensive performance. Like the rest of you, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his offense. But if you thought he played anything less than stellar D, you weren’t paying close enough attention.

https://media.giphy.com/media/3j0XXwCEgO.../giphy.gif

Eye test with notepad and ability to pause and rewind>>>>>>>>>>stats of any kind...

Theres some D but no O.

The reality check of tonight’s performance is that the Mavs have wasted two offseasons in a row.