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CLIPPERS EXPOSE MAVS AT AAC

This was a match where the team that played better won. The game was interesting and entertaining, but ultimately a relatively comfortable win for LA. 


NOTABLE ITEMS

GAME FLOW.  The Clippers were missing Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka. For the Mavs, Dwight Powell was listed as ill, and James Johnson was out again for personal reasons. We hope the missing players are okay. 

The Mavericks more or less held their own for the first few minutes, but when Luka went out, they rapidly lost traction, going down by double digits. Even when Luka returned, they couldn’t recover quickly, and trailed by 14, before an 8-2 run to close the first brought their deficit to 23-31 at the buzzer. Dallas played pretty well in the second, even achieving a one-point lead several times in advance of the Clippers’ going 6-0 at the end of the second, and the Mavs headed into halftime with a 50-55 disadvantage.

Your boys were able to hang in there for a while in the third, until the Clippers overwhelmed them late. They finished the quarter with a two-point deficit in the period, for a 78-85 margin headed into the fourth. Things got worse before they got better in the final frame, with the Mavs going down by 10 or more several times. About halfway through the fourth, they made a little headway, and were within four at the 3:15 mark. Unfortunately, the Clips finished the game on a 6-0 run, with the Mavs producing six missed shots and two turnovers to close the contest. 

NUMBERS.  Both teams shot pretty well overall (50/44/82 Clips, 49/41/80 Mavs). However, the Clippers got 7 more shots up, thanks to out-rebounding the Mavs 46-33, earning 13 second-chance points, and winning 15 points off 15 Maverick turnovers. The Clips also had 6 more free-throw attempts, although both teams combined for only 16. Despite some heroic efforts from Luka and THJ, who combined for 15 of the Mavs’ 21 fourth-quarter points, the late-game execution gaffes came out to bite the Mavs again, and they were not able to sustain the momentum they had built toward the end. 

DONCIC.  Luka had yet another triple double, with 15 points, 10 rebounds, and a season-high 16 assists, which was great. However, he did not shoot especially well (9-23, although he did have a couple of long shots earning him the sobriquet “Logo Luka”), had 7 turnovers, and earned only 4 free-throw attempts. He did have a potential four-point play in which the foul was ruled on the floor; Carlisle tried to challenge it, but the call was not challengeable on that basis, and the team lost a timeout. 

Luka said after the game that the loss was on him —he took too many “terrible shots,” “didn’t score,” and “lost too many balls.” The point guard was the recipient of a huge amount of defensive attention, which flustered him a bit and left him without good options too many times. It should be interesting to see what adjustments Carlisle employs to make things a little easier for his star. As for the refs, Luka said he wasn’t looking to get fined, but hopes that the officials do a better job of calling the game on Wednesday, lol. Despite the low number of fouls called in the game (28), Luka was in foul trouble for much of the second half, and played through it. 

PORZINGIS. This was a very good game by KP, who put up 22 points on ridiculous 9-14 shooting, along with 7 rebounds and a block. That said, he had only 7 two-point attempts, and did not take much advantage of smaller players guarding him — which, in fairness, looks like it might have been the game plan. We’ll see if Rick tries to get him a few more touches in the rematch. He was attentive and moving well on the defensive end. 

HARDAWAY. THJ had a tremendous second-half effort, putting up 16 of his 21 points in the back 24, and going 8-12, and 5-9 from three, for the night. He took DFS’ place in the closing unit, and his minutes were back up to 30. Tim has struggled a bit lately, and it was great to see him doing his thing again. The team needs him to score well. 
 
OTHER STARTERS. Josh, Doe-Doe and Maxi had decidedly meh performances, combining for 17 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 turnovers. J Rich and Maxi anchored the team in +/-, at -20 and -21. I don’t entirely blame the situation on the players — they can only do what they can do, and they looked generally smaller, weaker, slower, and less skilled than their Clipper counterparts. These guys may have pretty well reached their ceilings at this stage, and it will surprise me if they ever reach Paul George-Kawhi Leonard levels. However, it would be nice if they could at least make their open shots — they combined for 3-12 from deep. 

OTHER  RESERVES. Brunson played pretty well, recording  8 points and 3 assists in 24 minutes, but it wasn’t really a good match up for him, and he accordingly saw more limited time on the court than usual as of late. WCS was on the receiving end of a couple of exciting dunks, including the completion of a Willie-Luka-Willie give-and-go from mid-court, but he missed a couple of rim shots, did some goofy stuff, and ended up with 6 points and 2 rebounds to show for his 16 minutes. Burke did not score in 7 minutes of action. 

CLIPPERS. Seven of the Clippers were in double figures, led by Kawhi with 22. Paul George was 5-11, but had some key shots down the stretch. Zubac torched Dallas with 15 points, 7-8 shooting, and 11 boards. Marcus Morris got a rare start and laid 14 points on the Mavs, while Lou Will and Batum combined for 26 off the bench. The Clippers interior defense was stifling, holding the Mavericks to 30 points in the paint. 


OBSERVATIONS

Rick thought his team responded well after a “tough start,” but allowed that it was hard to win having to be in a reactive mode. While admitting that not many fouls had been called, he denied that this loss was about the officiating. Rather, it was because the Mavs did not quite achieve the level they needed to compete in terms of spacing, ball movement, execution, poise, and aggression. They will watch film, make some adjustments, and try again on Wednesday. 

My fear for this team is that we might be getting seduced by some regular-season wins lately into thinking they are readier for playoff basketball than they are. I think this is the level of play they are likely to see in the postseason, and while it kept looking like they were in a position to string enough possessions together to go on a run, they were really never able to do much more than hang around. Granted, this game wasn’t their high-water mark in terms of playing or coaching, but it wasn’t un-representative, either. For this season, they may be able to achieve their goals by further refining what they are doing, but ultimately, I think they’re going to need an upgrade in at least a couple of positions if they want to be a factor. The Clippers just brutally exposed their weaknesses. Something to keep an eye on. 

That's not to say they can't win another game. The Mavs have a chance at revenge Wednesday evening at the AAC. It looks within the realm of the possible!
An especially wonderful recap today. I think you’re right that this is likely a representation of what playoff Mavs might look like, however, I will say, I think the clippers did get some breaks with long offensive rebounds that fell their way.

Overall, the team competed well, and that’s all you can really ask for... but as you said, sure would be nice if Doe-Doe could hit a wide open shot from time to time...
(03-16-2021, 06:12 AM)Paul Gasol Wrote: [ -> ]sure would be nice if Doe-Doe could hit a wide open shot from time to time...


This was driving me crazy. I think this kind of games show that we need to upgrade at least one of DFS/Kleber to really become a contendet. Upgrade offense by not downgrading the defense. It was not just missing wide open shots. There was numerous times they had a semi opened shot but hesitated and went into dribbling, that never leads to anything. Bad pass a couple of times or just wasted opportunity many times more. This was the main difference between the two teams. Our two stars were better than Clippers ones.
(03-16-2021, 12:35 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I think they’re going to need an upgrade in at least a couple of positions if they want to be a factor.


Yep. Standing pat this year will lead to another 1st round exit likely (or getting bounced in the play-in tourney. If the Mavs are wanting to take a step forward and get the the 2nd round I think Donnie is going to have to be magical with the trades. 

I personally have resigned my expectations to another 1st round out.
(03-16-2021, 06:30 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]This was driving me crazy. I think this kind of games show that we need to upgrade at least one of DFS/Kleber to really become a contender. Upgrade offense by not downgrading the defense.  

To some extent, isn't this the theory behind a Gordon trade.  Maxi slides to backup 4/5 and WCS moves to Burke status.  You share 2/3 minutes between DFS, JRich and THJ.  PG minutes go to Luka and Brunson (and Burke moves to Boban status).  It would be more clearly an upgrade if Gordon was a better 3 point shooter.  But, he can do some things with the ball in his hands that Maxi and DFS can't.
You can somewhat get by with Do Do as a starter when Richardson is hitting, but when Richardson is off and two of your starting wings are zeros on offense you're not going to be beat bonafide playoff teams.
(03-16-2021, 07:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Yep. Standing pat this year will lead to another 1st round exit likely (or getting bounced in the play-in tourney. If the Mavs are wanting to take a step forward and get the the 2nd round I think Donnie is going to have to be magical with the trades. 

I personally have resigned my expectations to another 1st round out.

Would be more important to make moves that help to build a core for the future. Don´t think any of the mentioned names moves the needle this season. They typical Mavs move. Would hate to see the typical Mavs move. Solid win now vet on a short contract (maybe expiring) for expirings and picks. Maximize capspace, waste assets and most likely let the vet walk in the summer. That´s basically Donnies go to move.
After 10+ years of failure with the always in win now mode approach it wouldn´t hurt to try something different.
(03-16-2021, 07:08 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]It would be more clearly an upgrade if Gordon was a better 3 point shooter. 


This is what worries me most. DFS, JRich and Gordon are a guarantee for a packed paint
Getting AG to upgrade Maxi and OPJ to upgrade DFS would be a great TDL.
(03-16-2021, 06:30 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]This was driving me crazy. I think this kind of games show that we need to upgrade at least one of DFS/Kleber to really become a contendet. Upgrade offense by not downgrading the defense. It was not just missing wide open shots. There was numerous times they had a semi opened shot but hesitated and went into dribbling, that never leads to anything. Bad pass a couple of times or just wasted opportunity many times more. This was the main difference between the two teams. Our two stars were better than Clippers ones.
This is called subscribing to the Seth Curry way of 3 point shooting.
(03-16-2021, 07:12 AM)HanspardShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]You can somewhat get by with Do Do as a starter when Richardson is hitting, but when Richardson is off and two of your starting wings are zeros on offense you're not going to be beat bonafide playoff teams.

I get that not everyone values RPM.  But, for arguments sake, where is the hole(s) in this lineup (numbers are probably going to improve post-COVID, but are not guaranteed to improve enough to make some of these guys starter level on a contender).


Player  Rank     Off      Def     Total
KP      9th C     1.65    0.16    1.80
WCS   20th C   (2.36)  2.64   0.28
DP     64th C   (3.98)  1.40    (2.58)

Maxi   32nd PF (2.30)  1.25   (1.04)
DFS   40th PF  (1.74)  0.30   (1.44)

THJ   20th SF  1.12    (0.57) 0.54

JR     82nd SG (0.40) (0.86) (1.26)

LD    18th PG  3.71    (1.43) 2.29
JB     34th PG 0.74    (0.57) 0.28

We only have 5 positive players and only two start.  WCS, Maxi, DFS and JB are ranked where collectively they would be a fantastic bench.  Unfortunately, too many of them are called upon to start.  JRich is killing us (first five games of March not withstanding).  Ironically he was the 82nd ranked SG last season also.

Gordon was the 15th ranked PF last season and is the 28th this season.  In both he is negative offensively and positive defensively.  Fournier is 32nd this season and was 25th last season (both times worse than THJ).
(03-16-2021, 07:43 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Getting AG to upgrade Maxi and OPJ to upgrade DFS would be a great TDL.

Gras is not always greener on the other side. Maxi on a contender would get some real role player hype. Above average defender. 5th best 3P% in the league. DFS is basically the league average defense/hustle wing. Not great but a solid rotation player.
Gordon has shown flashes of good playmaking and some shot creation but when it comes to important role player skills (shooting, defense, rebounding) he is mediocre.
Not sure about OPJ. He was really good in Washington. Has been in and out of the lineup with different injuries in the last two seasons. Fractured foot, lingering back problems, ankle sprain. Don´t even want to mention the Halloween party / Covid protocol disaster last year.
(03-16-2021, 07:52 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I get that not everyone values RPM.  But, for arguments sake, where is the hole(s) in this lineup (numbers are probably going to improve post-COVID, but are not guaranteed to improve enough to make some of these guys starter level on a contender).


Player  Rank     Off      Def     Total
KP      9th C     1.65    0.16    1.80
WCS   20th C   (2.36)  2.64   0.28
DP     64th C   (3.98)  1.40    (2.58)

Maxi   32nd PF (2.30)  1.25   (1.04)
DFS   40th PF  (1.74)  0.30   (1.44)

THJ   20th SF  1.12    (0.57) 0.54

JR     82nd SG (0.40) (0.86) (1.26)

LD    18th PG  3.71    (1.43) 2.29
JB     34th PG 0.74    (0.57) 0.28

We only have 5 positive players and only two start.  WCS, Maxi, DFS and JB are ranked where collectively they would be a fantastic bench.  Unfortunately, too many of them are called upon to start.  JRich is killing us (first five games of March not withstanding).  Ironically he was the 82nd ranked SG last season also.

Gordon was the 15th ranked PF last season and is the 28th this season.  In both he is negative offensively and positive defensively.  Fournier is 32nd this season and was 25th last season (both times worse than THJ).

The original developer of RPM is a senior analyst for the Mavs. Wonder if the Mavs use something similar (advanced). The current version of RPM is an abomination. They took Engelmanns foundation and tried to match it with the eyetest. Results aren´t pretty.
(03-16-2021, 08:10 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]The current version of RPM is an abomination. They took Engelmanns foundation and tried to match it with the eyetest. Results aren´t pretty.


Yeah totally agree. Don't look at it much anymore....doesn't pass my intuition test at all. I would rather just look at raw on/off.
(03-16-2021, 07:15 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Would be more important to make moves that help to build a core for the future. Don´t think any of the mentioned names moves the needle this season. They typical Mavs move. Would hate to see the typical Mavs move. Solid win now vet on a short contract (maybe expiring) for expirings and picks. Maximize capspace, waste assets and most likely let the vet walk in the summer. That´s basically Donnies go to move.
After 10+ years of failure with the always in win now mode approach it wouldn´t hurt to try something different.

Oh for sure. I am 100% about making LONG term moves and not short term bandaids. I would rather take a step back this year to take future steps forward. I think this year is basically lost anyway. So the Mavs should be making moves NOW for the long term IMO.
(03-16-2021, 08:01 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Gras is not always greener on the other side. Maxi on a contender would get some real role player hype.
Of course Maxi on a contender would get more hype. The better the players around him, the more he can do Maxi things. He's being asked to do too much here and it's hurting him IMO. Put him on the bench with 22-25 mins and he becomes the perfect complimentary player. Maxi starting on a contender means there are 2-3 bonafide allstar/superstars on the team, which means 0 F's are being given about him, which means he can be free to do Maxi things.
Lakers late first/second round picks


Zubac
Kuzma
Jordan Clarkson
Josh Hart
Larry Nance jr
Mo Wagner

Most of these guys did not have much success in LA, but man that is some nice drafting outside the lottery.    Although they don't have a lot of fan traction in India......
I thought it was a good game, Mavs came really close but turned the ball over too many times in the 4th. When the Clippers defense turned up the Mavs didn't really have an answer. Also I have never seen Lou Williams play this good defense in an NBA game.
Mavs were right there and had multiple chances near the end, but if we had an actual NBA player instead of DFS out there this would've been an easy win.
(03-16-2021, 12:21 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I thought it was a good game, Mavs came really close but turned the ball over too many times in the 4th. When the Clippers defense turned up the Mavs didn't really have an answer. Also I have never seen Lou Williams play this good defense in an NBA game.

I agree. The Clippers really wanted this one, and for the most part, I thought the Mavs were up for the challenge. In the end, LA had one extra gear defensively that the Mavs couldn’t match, but I’m honestly not sure the Mavs have EVER seen defense like what the Clippers gave them in the 4th. I think that literally might have been a first time experience for them, because it was definitely more intense than anything they saw in that first round playoff series last year. 

I’m still on the DFS train, but his shooting slump is officially bothering me. Too many misses from him in the first half, and Burke was pretty bad, too. Luka had a pretty rough go of it down the stretch, but like I said above, he just doesn’t have much experience against this type of defense, if any. He’ll do better as he gains that experience. 

What you can’t say after last night is that the Mavericks didn’t play hard. They wanted it. More consistent efforts like that one and they’ll improve pretty quickly, imo.
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