STARLESS MAVERICKS EXHIBIT LUSTRE-LESS PERFORMANCE
BRUNSON BRILLIANCE WASTED IN LOSS
The Mavs and their fans spent a night in Yucksville, trying to cope without their two stars.
Shortly before game time, Luka was downgraded from doubtful to out with a left quad contusion suffered in the Miami game. KP continued on the injured list. The Bulls had virus problems, and counted Markannen, Satoransky, Hutchison, and Arcidiacono absent.
GAME STORY
Neither team played particularly well, and they mostly exchanged scores and stops for the first 34 minutes. By that time, I don’t know whether the Mavs began to tire, or what, but their offense was stuck in the mud, and the defense did not pick up. The Bulls went up 86-81 after three, and continued to stay ahead of the hapless Mavs for the rest of the game. Dallas whittled the deficit down to 2 at the 3:27 mark, but let the game slip away with a variety of late mistakes. The Mavs missed 14 threes and 6 free throws in the final period, and had a 6-rebound disadvantage.
NOTABLE ITEMS
1. How They Lost. The loss came down to terrible three-point shooting (26%), 8 missed free throws for a 70% performance at the line, giving up 18 second-chance points, going stagnant late, and allowing 62 points by the Bulls’ starting backcourt.
2. Bright spots. Jalen took Luka’s place in the starting lineup, and took over well, particularly in the first three quarters. He had a career second-best scoring night with 31 points, and did it on 11-17 shooting. He faded somewhat in the stretch, but let’s not take away from one of the Mavs’ only bright spots on the night. He also had 7 assists, and would have had more if his teammates had hit the open shots generated. Maxi also had a good night, with 16 points off the bench and 3-6 from three. J Rich contributed a solid performance, as well. The high scorers were Brunson 31, Richardson and Maxi with 16 each, and Hardaway 13.
3. Bulls. Zach Lavine put the hammer on the Mavs with 39 points, and his back-court mate Coby White added 23, coming alive in the second half. The Bulls as a whole made a lot of mistakes, and didn’t shoot very well either, but Dallas failed to capitalize on what was a middling Chicago performance, at best, overall.
OBSERVATIONS
Carlisle allowed that the Bulls won because they played better than his team did. While admitting that Chicago made some “hellacious” shots, he observed that his Mavs “shot themselves in the foot” by failing to rebound, failing to recover 50-50 balls, and not hitting their free throws. He did give Brunson a shout-out, complimenting his point guard for being “always ready.”
Willie gave a post-game interview, and said that it was easy to say that the Mavs should have recovered more 50-50 balls after a game, but that some of that is down to unlucky bounces and such during the contest. He did acknowledge that grabbing loose balls should be a matter of attention each and every game. He thought the loss was down to letting Zach Lavine get going early, and thought they should have given more focus to shutting him down. Brunson also answered a couple questions, and was hesitant to criticize his teammates, but admitted that the squad is capable of doing much better.
I hope that we don’t have many of these games without both Luka and KP. Even apart from the result, there just wasn’t much snap, crackle, or pop in this game, despite some outstanding individual performances. I think there was probably something to Willie’s comments about LaVine — the Bulls had the best player on the floor, and that’s always a significant advantage in basketball. But I don’t know that there is much of a defense for the team’s lackluster performance in so many aspects of the game.
Carlisle doesn’t think excuses should be made for the performance, so I won’t offer any. But if both Luka and KP are missing for any substantial period of the season at all, I will have to re-assess my evaluation of their likely success. Good health and a speedy return to both of them!
The Mavs now face Houston in a back-to-back. Yikes. Luka is day-to-day, so will be evaluated in the morning for availability in that match. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Okay, Mavs fans. Let’s hope for the best against the Rockets.
Last year we had three elite shooters, currently we have none. Seth is gone, KP is injured, and Tim is back to being Tim. There were so many missed wide open shots by Tim that you can't credit to the opposition defense.
We currently can't defend the rim or end opposition possessions by collecting the defensive rebounds, because a team with Powell at center as the lone big body is fundamentally crippled.
The difference between a win and a loss is missing a couple of easy shots, and then giving up a couple of easy field goals on the other end.
It is acceptable to be not so good without your two All-NBA caliber players. People may get frustrated because they assume this team should be good enough with Luka and consider KP as a cherry on top, but KP is essential for this team. We can cover for Luka's production here and there, but we can't make up for what KP's presence on the floor brings. He is our Anthony Davis.
(01-04-2021, 01:47 AM)pompelmo Wrote: [ -> ]There were so many missed wide open shots by Tim that you can't credit to the opposition defense.
He is shooting 46.7% so far on wide open threes....29.6% on open threes.....36.1% on catch and shoot threes.....6 game (small) sample size.
(01-04-2021, 12:21 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]BRUNSON BRILLIANCE WASTED IN LOSS
He has improved this year, he used to dribble in under the basket in a rush and get stuck. Now he takes a page out of Luka's game and goes in under control and really has a nice pace.
Season 3-point shooting numbers are looking brutal. It´s basically Maxi and a bunch of bad/mediocre guys.
Maxi 48% / 4.2 3PA
Burke 35% / 3.3 3PA
Richardson 33% / 6 3PA
Powell 33% / 0.5 3PA
Brunson 33% / 3 3PA
Johnson 33% / 1.5 3PA
THJ 33% / 8.2 3PA
DFS 27% / 5 3PA
Doncic 16% / 6.2 3PA
Mavs rank last in the league in 3-point percentage at 30.7%. 6th in 3-point attempts. League average is 36.1%.
That´s by far the biggest problem this season. Obviously a missed shot is a wasted possession but that´s not all. Worse spacing leads to less easy baskets in the paint. 3-point misses lead to more long rebounds, more transition opportunities for the opponent (fastbreak points, mismatches) and so on.
The Mavs lost Curry but that doesn´t explain why the entire team except for Maxi is shooting worse than last year and well below their career averages. The sample size is still small and the percentages will most likely go up but it is concerning that it isn´t about one or two players. That´s the usual hot/cold stretch for any shooter. The entire team is struggling.
After 6 games, which is still an extremely small sample, following weaknesses can be observed:
1. Wing defense is mostly good. Problem is the center line with basically non existing rim protection. While most of the ire is focused towards Powell, WCS has been arguably even worse lately. This should be corrected with KP return.
2. DFS is good defensively but his shooting has totally left him. If he doesn't get it back to 35+% on open threes, he can't be a starter. Spacing will be better with KP return.
3. THJ is a big hole defensively but not consistent offensively. His shooting is valued as he is the only one that keep defenses honest, even when not shooting great
(01-04-2021, 08:37 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]6 game (small) sample size.
very true. The jury is still out on whether last season was the new normal and he is in a slump or it was a fluky season. However he is 35/103 on his last approximately one hundred shots (12 games). He is 37/99 in the 12 games before.
45% on wide open threes is very good when you are on the floor primarily for your defensive duties and act as a punisher on offense, taking 4-5 mostly corner threes a game; like Dorian Finney-Smith or Jerami Grant of yesterday. In fact, I don't care about Dorian's regressed 3PT% very much until it reaches to a point where defenses completely ignore him and clog the lane. 1/5 is 20% which is bad and 2/5 at 40% is good, yet the difference is only 3 points for the whole game.
However, Tim doesn't bring much to the table of the defensive end. He is on the floor as one of the primary scoring options. 2/12 from three is 10 empty possessions which happens to be more than 10% of all our possessions last game (88).
He hit at the same ration on wide open threes last year (around 46.5%), but also hit 39% on 3.7 attempts of open threes, and 34% on 1.4
tight three attempts per game. He also hit 35.6% of his 2.2 pull up threes per game. That is more of a scorer's profile.
(01-04-2021, 09:20 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Maxi 48% / 4.2 3PA
Burke 35% / 3.3 3PA
Richardson 33% / 6 3PA
Powell 33% / 0.5 3PA
Brunson 33% / 3 3PA
Johnson 33% / 1.5 3PA
THJ 33% / 8.2 3PA
DFS 27% / 5 3PA
Doncic 16% / 6.2 3PA
That's the story, right there. Hopefully, it's temporary. You'd have to think it would be, at least for the majority of them.
(01-04-2021, 09:20 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Season 3-point shooting numbers are looking brutal. It´s basically Maxi and a bunch of bad/mediocre guys.
Maxi 48% / 4.2 3PA
Burke 35% / 3.3 3PA
Richardson 33% / 6 3PA
Powell 33% / 0.5 3PA
Brunson 33% / 3 3PA
Johnson 33% / 1.5 3PA
THJ 33% / 8.2 3PA
DFS 27% / 5 3PA
Doncic 16% / 6.2 3PA
Mavs rank last in the league in 3-point percentage at 30.7%. 6th in 3-point attempts. League average is 36.1%.
That´s by far the biggest problem this season. Obviously a missed shot is a wasted possession but that´s not all. Worse spacing leads to less easy baskets in the paint. 3-point misses lead to more long rebounds, more transition opportunities for the opponent (fastbreak points, mismatches) and so on.
The Mavs lost Curry but that doesn´t explain why the entire team except for Maxi is shooting worse than last year and well below their career averages. The sample size is still small and the percentages will most likely go up but it is concerning that it isn´t about one or two players. That´s the usual hot/cold stretch for any shooter. The entire team is struggling.
Ouch! Only Brunson's heroic performance made it worth the effort made to
surge watch this game.
For Carlisle's offense to do it's thing the shooters absolutely have to shoot well enough to not only to score the points but to create the gravity that produces the winning spacing for the other shooters.
Quote:The Mavs lost Curry but that doesn´t explain why the entire team except for Maxi is shooting worse than last year and well below their career averages.
Certainly true,
to an extent. Curry as a truly elite 3 point threat was one of those players that had a gravitational pull to defenders. Now Mavs are missing him along with KP's gravity. In this game you throw in Luka who gets his not only as a 3 point threat but as an elite offensive threat everywhere.
You can also see now for example that all of Philly's 3 point shooters are getting more space and shooting better and adding Steph's little brother as well Danny Green is contributing to that.
Props to Maxi for that blistering shooting start.
Big men that stretch the floor from 3, like the great Dirk Nowitzki, make it even harder for teams to contest the shot well offering an extra gravitational advantage. KP's return should be a big boost. Luka's % has to be a real concern for a team hoping to make the playoffs in the West. That won't do.
(01-04-2021, 12:32 PM)Dahlsim Wrote: [ -> ]Certainly true, to an extent. Curry as a truly elite 3 point threat was one of those players that had a gravitational pull to defenders. Now Mavs are missing him along with KP's gravity. In this game you throw in Luka who gets his not only as a 3 point threat but as an elite offensive threat everywhere.
Curry only played 24 minutes per game and wasn´t even a part of the starting five in most games. KP missed a lot of games and struggled early in the season.
I don´t buy it. It´s not like DFS and THJ aren´t getting open looks. They are just missing.
I think losing Curry hurts because the Mavs lost their best "difficult shot maker". A guy that can pull from everywhere (3-point, midrange, corner, top of the key) and make a contested shot. Without KP, Doncic and Curry the Mavs had no bail out option on offense. Leading to a lot of contested midrange and 3-point misses from THJ and Richardson.
(01-04-2021, 12:46 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]It´s not like DFS and THJ aren´t getting open looks. They are just missing.
I agree. If either one of those guys starts out shooting north of 38%, I think the team has two more wins.
I can buy that the pace and rhythm of the open shots is different this year, so far, but not enough to explain the abysmal accuracy. If it's not temporary, the team is in trouble. This entire team's paradigm is built on the concept that these guys are all above average "finishers," either shooting off of the catch or in Powell's case, scoring in the paint off of Luka. Those two things go hand-in-hand, but seeing those shooting numbers and then observing how the team is being defended has me feeling like the shooting is the extinction level event.
Is it a matter of shooing in cavernous arenas, or not having quite enough off-season time to warm up for the season? I hope so, but if that's the case, it seems like it would be a league wide phenomenon. Maybe it is, and the arms race is simply "who can adjust the quickest" (see Curry from last night). If several of the Mavs are shooting better in a week, I predict we'll all feel a lot better.
But, if it's "THJ and DFS aren't good shooters, and overachieved last season" well, then we're in for a miserable season. I'm not ready to go there yet, mentally.
(01-04-2021, 12:21 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Carlisle doesn’t think excuses should be made for the performance, so I won’t offer any. But if both Luka and KP are missing for any substantial period of the season at all, I will have to re-assess my evaluation of their likely success. Good health and a speedy return to both of them!
The Mavs now face Houston in a back-to-back. Yikes. Luka is day-to-day, so will be evaluated in the morning for availability in that match. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Okay, Mavs fans. Let’s hope for the best against the Rockets.
Sigh
Quote:Carlisle allowed that the Bulls won because they played better than his team did. While admitting that Chicago made some “hellacious” shots, he observed that his Mavs “shot themselves in the foot” by failing to rebound, failing to recover 50-50 balls, and not hitting their free throws. He did give Brunson a shout-out, complimenting his point guard for being “always ready.”
I hate to beat the drum I stopped beating but I will for a moment just to release some of my own steam from watching this situation. The alternate plan here could have been to
actually run some offense around my man Marjanovic, an elite offensive threat.
Instead he's completely wasted imo. You throw him in the game for 7 little minutes to have him run around and set picks and screens for the wings then try to get in position for garbage rebounds behind a bunch of smaller guys.
Seriously, why bother to play him at all in that role? Did WCS, Powell & Maxi really need a 7 minute blow?
We know Bobi is often somewhat of a defensive liability, probably not much more than many of the other Mavs however, so he ends up getting monster dunked on by a guy he should have laid a hard foul on instead.
On the other end Boban doesn't ever get a chance to really go back at the
little 6'10" Gafford (nice player) because he is an afterthought in his 7 minutes of Dallas offense vs Gafford in his 19 minutes.
Even in his scant 7 minutes without a lot of help from the coaching strategy, he scored 6 points on 3/4 shooting and grabbed 6 rebounds!
Bobi could be creating space and scoring for Dallas as an offensive threat, not just setting big clumsy picks out above the circle (sheesh) and picking up garbage for a few minutes.
What a monumental waste of talent, just at a time when rebounding help was needed and Brunson and Maxi could have used another scoring threat impacting the game.
Although the three-point shooting has been disappointing, I don't think that's the priority weakness at this point. For one, there is way too small a sample size to draw conclusions about shooters, and for another, they are still generating quality looks. Of course, quality looks don't matter if the shots don't fall, but you have to think at least some of them are going to start knocking those quality shots down (hopefully soon).
Much more concerning to me has been our big man platoon.
KP being out is huge, and even when he comes back, it may require a process before he reaches full effectiveness and the team gets its altered chemistry sorted out.
Powell offers little rim protection, isn't much of a rebounder, and so far, has not contributed a lot offensively, either. It may be that they are letting him play his way back into being productive, and I don't mind that concept, but in the meantime, he is too often a passenger on the court.
It's nice that Maxi has made some threes, but he isn't scoring in the paint, hasn't been a match for some of the opposing bigs, and has offered as much protection at the rim as one would hope.
I like Willie and the way he runs the floor, but his decision-making leaves something to be desired. For example, last night in the last few minutes, he had five fouls and fouled out trying to take a charge from the much shorter Coby White, with both of his feet solidly in the restricted area. Really? In the game before, there was a sequence where he caught a pass in great position for a dunk, and instead, passed back to a three-point shooter, who wasn't expecting the pass and bricked a rushed shot. He has previously thrown wild passes that he really had no business even taking. And he still doesn't appear to be totally familiar with the sets. Hopefully, he works out these kinks, but for now, he's pretty much a wild card.
Bobi is a good offensive option when opponents are clogging the paint, as he can score over everyone. He also helps with rebounding. However, on the other end, he's not mobile enough to guard bigs who can shoot, and he's a little too gentle to be as effective defensively as he might be in the paint. Additionally, rightly or wrongly, Carlisle appears to regard him as the emergency center.
Johnson offers a different option at the 4 position, with his passing ability and two-way play, but he is still fighting injury, and is likely in line to warm the bench once KP gets back.
Once KP returns and is re-integrated, some of these problems will sort themselves out. At that point, they probably have a big man rotation of KP, Maxi, and perhaps Powell or DFS, with the others appearing situationally. I think that means Maxi, Powell, and DFS are going to need to step it up, and that needed improvement is likely a more complicated matter than shooters coming out of their slumps.
I still maintain that the team will look entirely different with both KP and Luka up to snuff and the team in their groove, but I hope they can avoid digging themselves into too deep a hole before all that occurs.
(01-04-2021, 12:46 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Curry only played 24 minutes per game and wasn´t even a part of the starting five in most games. KP missed a lot of games and struggled early in the season.
I don´t buy it. It´s not like DFS and THJ aren´t getting open looks. They are just missing.
I think losing Curry hurts because the Mavs lost their best "difficult shot maker". A guy that can pull from everywhere (3-point, midrange, corner, top of the key) and make a contested shot. Without KP, Doncic and Curry the Mavs had no bail out option on offense. Leading to a lot of contested midrange and 3-point misses from THJ and Richardson.
Quote:I don´t buy it.
Fair enough. I'm not planting a tree on the point but I can easily see the loss of more than one respected shooter having a significant impact on the other shooters. In this case its KP + Curry. Yeah, I can see that changing the floor for everybody at different times.
I do know that Philly feels he and Danny Green are part of the reason, not all of it but definitely part of the reason their shooters are hitting better % so far this season.
Shooting is also kind of contagious on a team. I can vividly recall a few times a friend of mine and I would get 'hot' together just in pickup games and really get it streaky going bouncing off each others makes.
(01-04-2021, 09:20 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Maxi 48% / 4.2 3PA
Burke 35% / 3.3 3PA
Richardson 33% / 6 3PA
Powell 33% / 0.5 3PA
Brunson 33% / 3 3PA
Johnson 33% / 1.5 3PA
THJ 33% / 8.2 3PA
DFS 27% / 5 3PA
Doncic 16% / 6.2 3PA
The Mavs lost Curry but that doesn´t explain why the entire team except for Maxi is shooting worse than last year and well below their career averages.
Maxi Career 3pt%- 35.9, 13% up this year
Burke Career 3pt% 34.5,
0.5% up this year
Richardson Career 3pt% 36.3, 3.3% down this year
Powell Career 3pt% 29.4%,
3.9% up this year
Brunson Career 3pt%- 35.1, 2% down this year
Johnson Career 3pt%- 31%,
2% up this year
THJ Career 3pt% 35.3, 2.6% down this year
DFS Career 3pt% 32.8, 6.1% down this year
Doncic Career 3pt% 31.7, 15.6% down this year
The main things that stick out to me is that besides Maxi and Richardson, everyone on the roster has been a career below average 3pt shooter. No one is elite. To go even further, 4 of those players are nearly sub 30% for their career, which is horrible.
Another thing is that 3 (Burke, Powell, Johnson) of those 9 players are actually shooting above their career averages, but thankfully besides Burke, they shouldn't be taking a lot of 3s anyways.
Maxi is going to stabilize, there is no way he can sustain nearly 50% from 3 for an entire season. Luka will also stabilize, as he isn't a 16% 3pt shooter. Our main shooters, Richardson and THJ should also hopefully stabilize to their career averages,
but I have less hope for THJ because if we take his entire career before he got to Dallas, he was a career 34.3% 3pt shooter.
Basically 7 of the core 10 man rotation are pretty bad shooters. No wonder teams are just packing the paint against the Mavs and daring them to shoot. Hopefully KP can rectify some of that spacing, but one things clear to me is that we desperately need an elite shooter.
(01-04-2021, 02:02 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Bobi is a good offensive option when opponents are clogging the paint, as he can score over everyone. He also helps with rebounding. However, on the other end, he's not mobile enough to guard bigs who can shoot, and he's a little too gentle to be as effective defensively as he might be in the paint. Additionally, rightly or wrongly, Carlisle appears to regard him as the emergency center.
Agreed for the most part ML.
Quote:Bobi is a good offensive option when opponents are clogging the paint, as he can score over everyone.
Here I agree but I'd say if you can score over everyone, there should be more useful sets for you as alternate plan in a high powered offensive attack even last year was often
not high powered when it actually mattered the most.
Not only when the paint is clogged but when you can't get a bucket and just need to get one, period.
Yeah, we agree on defense. I wish Bobi would take a risk on a few more fouls trying to aggressively defend the rim. Its frustrating for me to watch him watch the score.
Just too gentle.
That said like a lot of offensive players, he can often get you back more, sometimes a lot more on the offensive end and on the boards if he were being used that way.
Quote: the emergency center.
So was there an emergency for 7 minutes early in the game? If so I missed it.
It's more like token minutes. You have Powell, WCS, Maxi and Johnson.
Heck why not look into trading him? Stan Van Gundy is on record as loving him and wishing he used him more.
https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/...0514614272
(01-04-2021, 02:30 PM)Dahlsim Wrote: [ -> ]Heck why not look into trading him? Stan Van Gundy is on record as loving him and wishing he used him more.
Boban's value as a locker room guy should mean he shouldn't be traded just to be traded. Dude is an invaluable locker room guy. Given that we don't have JJB and Dirk, we shouldn't just give those guys away.
BRUNSON BRILLIANCE WASTED IN LOSS
His brilliance kept them in the game but his was equally bad in the closing minutes.
(01-04-2021, 02:30 PM)Dahlsim Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed for the most part ML.
Here I agree but I'd say if you can score over everyone, there should be more useful sets for you as alternate plan in a high powered offensive attack even last year was often not high powered when it actually mattered the most.
Not only when the paint is clogged but when you can't get a bucket and just need to get one, period.
Yeah, we agree on defense. I wish Bobi would take a risk on a few more fouls trying to aggressively defend the rim. Its frustrating for me to watch him watch the score. Just too gentle.
That said like a lot of offensive players, he can often get you back more, sometimes a lot more on the offensive end and on the boards if he were being used that way.
So was there an emergency for 7 minutes early in the game? If so I missed it.
It's more like token minutes. You have Powell, WCS, Maxi and Johnson.
Heck why not look into trading him? Stan Van Gundy is on record as loving him and wishing he used him more.
https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/...0514614272
Good points, dahl.
If Rick ran an attack designed around Bobi occasionally, you would have to think that would be a powerful offensive move, even if only in limited minutes. I enjoy watching him, and think he gives the otherwise three-point oriented offense a different look. I have come to believe, though, that his opportunities are going to be limited, whether I like it or not.
By "emergency center," I didn't mean there was a literal emergency, lol. I mean that he is only used in blowouts, or when the five "preferred" bigs aren't getting the job done. Call it "emergency" or "token," I think we agree on the concept.
The point being, I don't see Bobi as being a key part of the solution to the front court problems, for reasons not altogether under his control. I would love to be wrong. I am just going to enjoy watching him play in whatever minutes he is on the court while he is here. I wish there were more of a way to take advantage of what appears to be an underutilized strength, but it appears that the fit is just awkward enough in the team system that using him doesn't look like a priority for Rick.
(01-04-2021, 02:43 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]BRUNSON BRILLIANCE WASTED IN LOSS
His brilliance kept them in the game but his was equally bad in the closing minutes.
I agree with that, cow. In another game, I might have gone into that more, but I was getting too depressed with all the other negatives going on.