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MAVERICKS DEFEAT MIAMI IN LOW-SCORING GAME

Well, you can win ‘em pretty, or you can win ‘em ugly, but they both count the same. The Mavs conducted a defensive battle with the Heat and lived to tell the tale, winning their first game with under 100 points in almost two years. All the MFFLs who were perched on the edge of the ledge after the Charlotte game can move back to a little safer ground. At least for now. 


GAME STORY

The Mavs entered the court looking spiffy in their new gold-and-white City jerseys. 

Both teams began the game in unprepossessing fashion, and the score was tied at only 5 apiece five minutes in. A timeout seemed to revive the squads a bit, and Dallas led 20-16 after twelve minutes. The offenses were not on fire, but the Mavs did well to attack when their shots weren't falling. Both teams combined to go 1-14 from deep. Yikes. 

James Johnson spent a spell leading the second unit to begin the next quarter. He was the leading scorer in the period, with 8 points. He had two quick threes to jumpstart the frame, a steal leading to a three from Doe-Doe, and a layup from Tim. Luka made the highlight reel with a foray into the paint, where he exhibited some fancy footwork dancing away from his defenders, and added a spin-fake and an up-and-under bucket, putting Adebayo in the blender. He also hit his first three in ages, and looked up at the heavens with an expression of profound relief and deep gratitude to the basketball gods. 

The Mavs put five threes on the board, but the Heat missed all of their long-range shots, ending the half 0-14 from three. On the last play of the half, the ref missed Luka getting clobbered at the rim. Luka gave said ref a piece of his mind, resulting in a T. He gave the advertising boarding a vicious kick on his way out of the gym. Woah. At any rate, the Heat managed only 15 points in the quarter, and the halftime score was a ludicrous 46-31.

Doe-Doe was called for his fourth foul about ten seconds into the third, and Powell ended his stint with his own fourth seven minutes in. The Heat came alive a little, and managed to get 22 points on the board, but the Mavs did them a little better with 27. Mavs led 73-53 after three. 

The Mavs appeared to tire in the fourth. They were up by 23 points at the 8:32 mark, but a combination of missed shots, turnovers, mistakes, and Avery Bradley laying 12 points on them reduced the lead to 9 with 1:11 left. I was on the verge of an apoplexy with flashbacks of all those surrendered leads from last season, but fortunately, the Mavs salvaged the win. Whew!


NOTABLE POINTS 

  1. Defense and Rebounding. The Mavs looked pretty good tonight, getting up into the Heat players, closing out on shooters, forcing turnovers, swarming, getting deflections,  and securing rebounds. Rick said the team had concentrated solely on attention to defensive detail over the past two days, and thinks it paid off.
2.  Shooting. The Mavs' win came down to out-shooting the Heat, but both teams were really pretty putrid when it came to putting the ball in the basket. The Mavericks were less than 50% inside the arc, 32% from three, and also missed six free throws for 74% at the line. The Heat’s loss came courtesy of a 7-33 performance from long range (21%), and seven missed free throws out of 25 attempts. 

3.  Hardaway. Tim led the team in minutes (39) and +/- (+17). Although his 18 points weren’t particularly efficient (6-18), he did have a nice mixture of threes and paint shots, scoring in both the half-court and transition. He also had a couple of steals, and some good defensive plays. In an unusual move, Rick ran him out for the entire fourth quarter, and his performance fell off some late. I know there are some MFFLs who are not especially admirers of THJ, but, while aspects of his game can be criticized, he is the one of three Mavs who are pretty dependably good for 15 points a night, and he is likely to be a key piece going forward.

4.  Doncic. Luka looked much more like the Luka of old than he did in the Hornets game, scoring his first double-double of the season with 27 points and 15 boards, to go with 7 assists. He was 9 of 22 from the field, but who's counting? He would have had an even bigger assist total, had his teammates managed to hit the numerous open looks he generated for them. After the game, he mentioned his happiness when that first three went in, lol. Rick says that his conditioning is improving, and Coach is playing him longer stretches. Tonight, he was able to play 36 minutes, and Rick noted that although he was tired, it will serve to make him stronger.

5.  Richardson. Josh had 11 points (5-10), but arguably made his most important contributions on the defensive end. A good part of the Heat failing to make their shots was down to his efforts. A great example of a player not having to pile up a lot of points to make a substantial impact on the game. 

6.  Powell.  I thought Dwight had his best game of the season. He took only one shot, but was the leading rebounder after Doncic, with 8 boards, all in the first half. He also had two steals and an effective defensive game. Good to see him take a step forward. 

7.  DFS.  Doe-Doe had 12 points on 5-8 shooting and grabbed five rebounds. He also defended well, and I think would have had an even bigger impact if he hadn’t gotten into foul trouble in the second and third quarters. 

8.  Johnson. Rick gave James a shout-out after the game, saying that he had a big impact off the bench with his unselfish play. He revealed that James is still not 100% with a lingering knee injury, but that he is a a “spirit guy,” a veteran leader, and a great addition to the team. James himself was asked to comment on Luka as a leader after the game. After giving it a minute’s thought, he said that Luka is an “emerging” leader, allowing that you can’t be the team leader if you’ve only been in the league for a couple of seasons — you need a veteran for that. Sounds like Rick thinks that James is that leader. 

9.  Heat. This was a long way from being the Heat’s finest hour, but the Mavs had something to do with that. Adebayo was their most impactful player, with 19 points and 11 boards. While we’re on the subject of the Heat, what’s with the names on this roster? Bam. Precious. Iggy. Sounds like a gol-dang nursery school team. 


OBSERVATIONS

Rick was pleased with his team’s “gritty” effort. He said the players are starting to realize that this season is going to be very different from last. They are not going to be setting offensive records right and left, and are going to have to rely on the attention to detail and the going above and beyond that it takes to have a championship mentality. As far as his outlook on the team’s progress, he observed that they have “shown up in two out of five games” and “haven’t done s___,” prompting an apology from the FSSW studio, lol. 

This win was far from beautiful, and they are going to have to play a lot better than this to be relevant, but I still liked it, at least sort of. There was a lot of determination and effort in evidence, and the players appeared to be communicating better and playing more as a collective. As Rick pointed out, the key will be maintaining that disposition consistently.

Neither the Mavs nor the Heat is likely to encounter this level of scoring drought very often, and to some degree, this is probably just another oddball result from a goofy early season. It's hard to know how much can be taken away from it. However, I think we saw improvement in several respects, and I like their chances of rounding into a squad that other teams won't want to face. 

Next stop, Chicago. Until then!
NBA (and basketball in general) box scores need some noise cleansing. However this won't be done just to keep sports almanacs tidy.

First, a three pointer is not ever an easy basket. Only a handful players can hit around 50% on even the wide open threes. That is making 1 shot out of 2; or in other words, missing one of every two attempts is still considered very good. Therefore making a three mostly relies on the shooters skill. A pass to a three point shooter is not "a pass leading to an easy basket". The passer's contribution is minimal. Only passes leading to an easy lay up or dunk should count as an assist. That way "shooters costing Luka assists by missing shots" complaints would end. Those are not uncontested lay ups.

Second, a defensive rebound is the expected result of a missed shot. When teams are running back after the shot without contesting the offensive rebound to avoid giving up transition opportunities, collecting the defensive rebound become even easier, where you actually decide which player in the pool should collect it. The team shooting better usually also wins the rebounding battle on the box score because of giving less defensive rebound opportunities, yet this is not really a good indicator about how the actual rebounding battle went. They should only count offensive rebounds as a personal stat, and offensive rebounds conceded as a team stat. Therefore, people looking at the box score would have a better understanding of which team rebounded better.

Third, they should count the easy points conceded after a failed steal or block attempt so that those won't only count as positive stats. A steal or dunk attempt has the opportunity cost of giving up your defensive positioning, which is ignored by the box score. Players collecting steals and blocks are not always the best defenders.

Last, live turnovers should be a separate stat. When you pass or step out of bounds or lose the possession by an offensive foul, your defensive possession is normally set the following opponent's possession. When it is a live turnover, you collect the ball under your basket.

These changes would help box scores to reflect the contributions of players like Westbrook, Drummond and Whiteside better. A triple double is promoted as a huge accomplishment by the league, but the player who accomplished this feat at all of the games he played this season has yet to lead his not-so-bad-on-paper team to a win. IF his TDs are worthless, what makes others' worthwhile?

The games are played to win, not to collect individual stats. The personal stats are supposed to indicate how much that player contributed for the win.
(01-02-2021, 02:00 AM)pompelmo Wrote: [ -> ]NBA (and basketball in general) box scores need some noise cleansing. However this won't be done just to keep sports almanacs tidy.
Thanks for these thoughts, pompelmo. 

Just as a friendly suggestion, I am afraid your points are likely to get lost in a postgame recap convo. Your post might receive more attention in its own thread. 

Of course, you are welcome to leave it here if you prefer.
So Mavs lose to the Suns and Hornets but beat the Clippers and Heat? Go figure.
(01-02-2021, 08:49 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So Mavs lose to the Suns and Hornets but beat the Clippers and Heat? Go figure.

For real.

Have you checked out the standings? Lots of teams are doing weird things to start the season out. I'm a little relieved that it isn't just the Mavs.
(01-02-2021, 12:53 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]MAVERICKS DEFEAT MIAMI IN LOW-SCORING GAME

 
6.  Powell.  I thought Dwight had his best game of the season. He took only one shot, but was the leading rebounder after Doncic, with 8 boards, all in the first half. He also had two steals and an effective defensive game. Good to see him take a step forward. 

Carlisle continues to play around with his rotation.  Last night Luka played the entire first and 3rd quarter and the back half of the 2nd and 4th.  He got much more time with starters and less with the subs than he usually gets.  JRich was the first out (along with Powell) and came back to play with the subs in the late 1st/early 2nd.  In the 3rd Finney's foul trouble changed up what would have been the pattern, so we don't know what his plan was.  

Maxi and Burke have consistently been the first players in from the bench.  Powell has been consistently the first player out.  But, every night the first player besides Powell to leave has been slightly different.

I don't know that last night qualifies as a close finish, but the final 6:30 featured Luka, DFS, THJ, JRich and Maxi as the closing five.

Probably the biggest development in my mind was getting to see Powell/Maxi together with the starters for extended minutes for the first time.  This came courtesy of the aforementioned DFS foul trouble.  For the final 5:16 of the second quarter we saw Luka, JRich, THJ with Powell and Maxi and the team went on a 13-2 run and was +9 for the entire time.  We got the same thing again when DFS drew his fourth foul early in the 3rd.  The Mavs went on a 15-5 run and were +6 from 10:24-5:07 with Powell/Maxi playing with Luka/JRich and THJ.  These, were the two of the three most positive +/- segments of the game.

One of the biggest questions about what happens when KP comes back is who sits among what then amounts to six starters.  Most of the attention focuses around it being either Powell or DFS.  Powell sitting makes sense based on what the Mav's did after Powell's injury and how it "appears" that moment in time "allowed" KP a bigger role (a development that would have happened eventually anyway in my mind).  DFS sitting makes more sense because he's more effective as a three and the period of time when we had Powell as a starter with KP was the period where our historically efficient offence was actually at its best.  We have lots of experience seeing what DFS looks like with the starters and a single big.  We have very little recent experience seeing Powell with starters alongside another big.  Powell has never been suited to be a stand-alone big.  But last night was a good reminder of how good things were when he's with starters and another big.
(01-02-2021, 09:38 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]One of the biggest questions about what happens when KP comes back is who sits among what then amounts to six starters.  Most of the attention focuses around it being either Powell or DFS.  Powell sitting makes sense based on what the Mav's did after Powell's injury and how it "appears" that moment in time "allowed" KP a bigger role (a development that would have happened eventually anyway).  DFS sitting makes more sense because he's more effective as a three and the period of time when we had Powell as a starter with KP was the period where our historically efficient offence was actually at its best.  We have lots of experience seeing what DFS looks like with the starters and a single big.  We have very little recent experience seeing Powell with starters alongside another big.  Powell has never been suited to be a stand-alone big.  But last night was a good reminder of how good things were when he's with starters and another big.


Are you 100% positive it won't be THJ going to the bench? I'm not. I don't know if the shooting will be good enough with Luka/Richardson/DFS/Powell/KP, but I'd like to see them try it.

EDIT: In addition to the shooting, I guess it matters greatly whether Carlisle wants to play the pick and roll action through Powell, or if he'd prefer Porzingis. Powell will be kind of useless out there if they directly involve KP. They'd need better shooting in that case. 

I can't wait to see what's what.
(01-02-2021, 09:42 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Are you 100% positive it won't be THJ going to the bench? I'm not. I don't know if the shooting will be good enough with Luka/Richardson/DFS/Powell/KP, but I'd like to see them try it.

I'm not sure of anything.  THJ getting sat in his contract year would be a tough pill to swallow.

I can see a finishing lineup along the lines of what you suggest (or Luka, JRich, DFS, Maxi,KP).  That is a ton of D and if DFS and Maxi are hitting their 3's then you don't really need to do O for D swaps late in the game.
(01-02-2021, 09:48 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]THJ getting sat in his contract year would be a tough pill to swallow.


Very true.
One thing this game struck me about JRich's approach to defense and Luka's approach to defense, that has nothing to do with athletic ability:  JRich constantly keeps his "head-on-a-swivel" whereas Luka plays defense many times with blinders on the ball.  I think this one adjustment to Luka's approach would do wonders. 

I've always thought Luka is an overrated rebounder, very few times does he fight for a ball, he usually just collects it on the weak side.  Rarely does he keep his head on a swivel to block out anyone behind him.  None of these 15 rebounds he collected impress me, as I watch the replays:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=REB&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000071&PlayerID=1629029&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612742&flag=1&sct=plot§ion=game
And either he has supernatural peripheral vision or he just doesn't look for guys to back-door him or to set a screen on him.

JRich is constantly surveying the court around him, looking around, communicating.  That is something Luka would do well to work on.  I would actually like him to get fewer rebounds a game and just do his job defensively.
(01-02-2021, 09:38 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Carlisle continues to play around with his rotation.  Last night Luka played the entire first and 3rd quarter and the back half of the 2nd and 4th.  He got much more time with starters and less with the subs than he usually gets.  JRich was the first out (along with Powell) and came back to play with the subs in the late 1st/early 2nd.  In the 3rd Finney's foul trouble changed up what would have been the pattern, so we don't know what his plan was.  

Maxi and Burke have consistently been the first players in from the bench.  Powell has been consistently the first player out.  But, every night the first player besides Powell to leave has been slightly different.

I don't know that last night qualifies as a close finish, but the final 6:30 featured Luka, DFS, THJ, JRich and Maxi as the closing five.

Probably the biggest development in my mind was getting to see Powell/Maxi together with the starters for extended minutes for the first time.  This came courtesy of the aforementioned DFS foul trouble.  For the final 5:16 of the second quarter we saw Luka, JRich, THJ with Powell and Maxi and the team went on a 13-2 run and was +9 for the entire time.  We got the same thing again when DFS drew his fourth foul early in the 3rd.  The Mavs went on a 15-5 run and were +6 from 10:24-5:07 with Powell/Maxi playing with Luka/JRich and THJ.  These, were the two of the three most positive +/- segments of the game.

One of the biggest questions about what happens when KP comes back is who sits among what then amounts to six starters.  Most of the attention focuses around it being either Powell or DFS.  Powell sitting makes sense based on what the Mav's did after Powell's injury and how it "appears" that moment in time "allowed" KP a bigger role (a development that would have happened eventually anyway in my mind).  DFS sitting makes more sense because he's more effective as a three and the period of time when we had Powell as a starter with KP was the period where our historically efficient offence was actually at its best.  We have lots of experience seeing what DFS looks like with the starters and a single big.  We have very little recent experience seeing Powell with starters alongside another big.  Powell has never been suited to be a stand-alone big.  But last night was a good reminder of how good things were when he's with starters and another big.

Thanks for these careful and insightful observations, DS.
My few observations:

1) Boy J-Rich had a stellar game. He was so strong defensively. I loved it. 

2) Burke is awesome. He has grown so much on defense too. I like the rotation twist that brings him in early and lessens the time he spends together with Brunson on the floor.

3) Powell was somewhat ok yesterday, but the Heat didn´t really expose him. Why didn´t Bam post him up at all?

4) Luka´s been good. I´m much more worried by his finishing at the rim than his three pointers. The finishing made him elite last season. Let´s hope he gets back to this after getting in some shape. That said, his defense was again very very solid. He´s clearly improved at that end just by having more experience.

5) 5 games played, I have absolutely no idea what this team can be with KP. I can see them missing the playoffs and I can see them winning it all. That´s crazy.
(01-02-2021, 06:28 PM)Thukydides Wrote: [ -> ]Burke is awesome. He has grown so much on defense too.


He is an absolutely underrated defender. I think he was one of the Mavs best defenders in 2018-19.
I made a comment and shared some numbers the other day around mid range shots and the lack there of with the Mavs.  I don’t know if anyone noticed but after averaging 6/game for the first 4, they shot 18 against Miami.  I think Rick was well aware after the Charlotte game that they might be getting a little predictable.  I think I saw more drives off of close outs in the last game than I saw in the previous games combined.
(01-02-2021, 10:22 PM)RDB Wrote: [ -> ]I made a comment and shared some numbers the other day around mid range shots and the lack there of with the Mavs.  I don’t know if anyone noticed but after averaging 6/game for the first 4, they shot 18 against Miami.  I think Rick was well aware after the Charlotte game that they might be getting a little predictable.  I think I saw more drives off of close outs in the last game than I saw in the previous games combined.

Interesting.