I have harped on the necessity for the Mavs to avoid trading their 2027 FRP prior to the deadline this year, with the belief that if '24 conveys, then the Mavs would, this offseason, only be able to trade a single pick via the Stepien rule, that being 2031, because 2025 would be locked by the loss of '24, and '26 would be locked by virtue of '27 being conveyed to whomever we traded it to. Someone on the BR board told me that I was wrong, that we would still have '25 to trade because the Stepien rule applies only to future picks, rather than past picks. Is that true?
If he is correct, then perhaps it would be reasonable of the Mavs to trade '27, as they would still have two future FRPs for future trades. If not, as I presumed, and the Mavs would only have a pick seven years out (in which anything could happen...) to trade, then trading '27 prior to the deadline would be catastrophic for future flexibility.
If the Mavs traded '27 prior to the deadline and still had two picks to trade in the offseason, how bad would that hurt the offseason? If Siakam or OG wanted to come here, it would seem that a sign-and-trade wouldn't need three picks - perhaps only one. Hmmm.... I guess it would depend as well on if Mikal Bridges - the ideal pairing with Luka and Kai, tbh - would be available for three FRPs.
(12-05-2023, 03:01 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I have harped on the necessity for the Mavs to avoid trading their 2027 FRP prior to the deadline this year, with the belief that if '24 conveys, then the Mavs would, this offseason, only be able to trade a single pick via the Stepien rule, that being 2031, because 2025 would be locked by the loss of '24, and '26 would be locked by virtue of '27 being conveyed to whomever we traded it to. Someone on the BR board told me that I was wrong, that we would still have '25 to trade because the Stepien rule applies only to future picks, rather than past picks. Is that true?
If he is correct, then perhaps it would be reasonable of the Mavs to trade '27, as they would still have two future FRPs for future trades. If not, as I presumed, and the Mavs would only have a pick seven years out (in which anything could happen...) to trade, then trading '27 prior to the deadline would be catastrophic for future flexibility.
If the Mavs traded '27 prior to the deadline and still had two picks to trade in the offseason, how bad would that hurt the offseason? If Siakam or OG wanted to come here, it would seem that a sign-and-trade wouldn't need three picks - perhaps only one. Hmmm.... I guess it would depend as well on if Mikal Bridges - the ideal pairing with Luka and Kai, tbh - would be available for three FRPs.
There are multiple guys on here better at this than me, but I believe we can still trade 26.
I think most of the folks (including me) arguing against trading the first are focused on long term versus this year and are skeptical that a deal will materialize this TDL that would make sense. The general line of thought is that Lively is clearly the future at center and we need to spending the majority of our assets on wings vs backup center. Unless we want to send a Kyrie package for Siakam or OG, I have not heard of a lot of deals that make sense to spend a first on. In the upcoming offseason, we will have more picks, perfect sized expiring contracts for trading, and there should be a lot more options. Its less about holding onto that pick for dear life, and more about maximizing the long term value of it.
I love Mikal Bridges, but I like OG at least as much and if I can get him in a S&T for one pick, thats a way better deal than sending 3 for Mikal. However, if OG doesn't want to come here but Mikal is an option, it would be nice to have the assets to pull that trigger.
I know this does not relate to what you asked...but what is Siakam roll with Mavs and Lively? Or would you include Lively in a Siakam deal? Neither can shoot. Twin towers when necessary and Lively to the bench?
Would Mikal Bridges go back to a Phoenix roll after proving he can score? Seems like if I was him I would pull the Jerami Grant/Kyle Kuzma and get paid and play somewhere I get more stimulation by being able to be involved on offense. Call it a non-winning attitude if you want...but I bet there are teams Mikal could go to where he would be heavily involved in offense and the team still be successful. He is the perfect player for Luka, though.
OG makes the most sense. Good fit...not as good as Phoenix Bridges, though. I just hate how everyone on RealGM says he is a glorified roll player who will be expensive if traded for and his next contract will be an over pay. Sure...nothing wrong with a little over pay if its on a team with a perfect fit...and Dallas and Luka seem to be a great fit...but everyone seems to say they dont want that next contract based on his overall skill.
(12-05-2023, 04:46 PM)youzigizag Wrote: [ -> ]I know this does not relate to what you asked...but what is Siakam roll with Mavs and Lively? Or would you include Lively in a Siakam deal? Neither can shoot. Twin towers when necessary and Lively to the bench?
Would Mikal Bridges go back to a Phoenix roll after proving he can score? Seems like if I was him I would pull the Jerami Grant/Kyle Kuzma and get paid and play somewhere I get more stimulation by being able to be involved on offense. Call it a non-winning attitude if you want...but I bet there are teams Mikal could go to where he would be heavily involved in offense and the team still be successful. He is the perfect player for Luka, though.
OG makes the most sense. Good fit...not as good as Phoenix Bridges, though. I just hate how everyone on RealGM says he is a glorified roll player who will be expensive if traded for and his next contract will be an over pay. Sure...nothing wrong with a little over pay if its on a team with a perfect fit...and Dallas and Luka seem to be a great fit...but everyone seems to say they dont want that next contract based on his overall skill.
There's an awful lot of conversation about the profile of our third star (second star, really - whoever it is, they should definitely fit better with Luka and ultimately outlast Kyrie one way or another). Most seem to think in terms of a big wing with fantastic defense, strong rebounding for position, 20 ppg-ish (not higher, since he won't be able to "eat" next to Luka and Kyrie), and some distribution ability. Basically, Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard with half or less of their miles, perhaps someone a little taller than those two. Very few players who fit that profile. Have to say I've never thought of Siakam as incapable of spreading the floor, but just looked up his 3p% history and threw up in my mouth a lot. I think there are probably around ten-fifteen players in the league that come close to fitting the profile, but several of those are too old. Bottom line is, you're talking about a very rare player who is going to be an expensive commodity.
OG has a player option the coming year, which he will decline. If we get him, one way or another, our cap is going to be restrictively tied up in Luka-OG-Kyrie, so Nico and Lindsay had better be extremely astute in building around them if that happens.
(12-05-2023, 05:27 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]There's an awful lot of conversation about the profile of our third star (second star, really - whoever it is, they should definitely fit better with Luka and ultimately outlast Kyrie one way or another). Most seem to think in terms of a big wing with fantastic defense, strong rebounding for position, 20 ppg-ish (not higher, since he won't be able to "eat" next to Luka and Kyrie), and some distribution ability. Basically, Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard with half or less of their miles, perhaps someone a little taller than those two. Very few players who fit that profile. Have to say I've never thought of Siakam as incapable of spreading the floor, but just looked up his 3p% history and threw up in my mouth a lot. I think there are probably around ten-fifteen players in the league that come close to fitting the profile, but several of those are too old. Bottom line is, you're talking about a very rare player who is going to be an expensive commodity.
OG has a player option the coming year, which he will decline. If we get him, one way or another, our cap is going to be restrictively tied up in Luka-OG-Kyrie, so Nico and Lindsay had better be extremely astute in building around them if that happens.
OG shoots the 3 better than Siakam if Im not mistaken...thats why I asked the questions. Seems like Bridges and OG fit better. I dont know about historical stats...but it seems like OG shoots the 3 well enough to acquire and be called a fit with Dallas. And we arent even considering the Luka effect of open 3s he will produce for OG.
Phoenix Bridges I would take over OG me thinks. Dont know what the board thinks of that. He just seems perfect. But I dont think he would go back to that roll. And I hate talking about someone who I have no idea what they think ha.
Maybe OG's defense is so elite that many would take him over Bridges considering he can shoot 3s reasonably well and Luka would provide even better looks. Bridges can d-up and has offense and can shoot a 3, though.
If Game Theory is a thing...I dont think any team wants to help Dallas acquire Bridges or OG with Luke, Lively and Kyrie.
Stepien does in fact only apply to future firsts so if we convey '24 and still have '26 then we can trade '25 once the '24 draft is done.
My wish-list for 3rd star:
1) Tatum. I know he's never going to be available, but he's decent enough on defense to be a very good fit as the second star next to Luka. That's the "dream big" option. Honorable mentions for DBO are Scottie Barnes and Banchero, who aren't going anywhere.
2) Mikal Bridges. Shorter than most on this list, but qualifies as a big wing by virtue of his ludicrous wingspan. Elite defense, and now elite offense.
3) OG. Not going to get him in-season with our assets. Better start tampering.
4) Butler. I know he doesn't fit the timeline, and Miami certainly isn't going to make him available, but put his mental toughness next to Luka and Lively, and you can start planning the parade if he stays healthy.
5) Jeremi Grant. He definitely benches GW.
6) Avdija. Has the size and defense, good 3p% this year, fits the timeline. Rebounding is lamentable.
7) Lauri. A little lame on the defense, but an excellent scoring/rebounding complement.
8) John Collins. Still don't believe in his defense, but fits otherwise.
9) Siakam. Much lower on my list after seeing his 3p%.
10) PJ Washington. Makes a lot of sense on a certain level, but oof, those advanced stats. Would have to keep him locked in on defense.
11) Kuzma. He's a douche with lots of empty stats, but at least he has some size and scoring ability.
12) Kawhi. Yes, he's a douche, and no, he doesn't fit the timeline, but he's a winner when available. Hmmm.
13) Paul George. I hate this guy, and he doesn't have many useful miles left on him, but he defends better than many.
Notwithstanding KL's protestations that Brooklyn wants two firsts for him, I would still maintain they wouldn't even get one - maybe a pick-swap - for DFS. He's probable cheaper than anyone else on this list, and although he doesn't fit the timeline, we know he fits otherwise. My dream to finish our roster by the end of next summer would be DFS for a package with no FRPs, a backup center on a sneaky-cheap trade, and then OG next summer via sign-and-trade.
Ill take DFS...but not if the plan is to run him into the ground 40 minutes a night.
I would load manage him so much. I want him healthy and rested for playoffs. If we are doing well in games in the playoffs...rest him unless we need him in the 4th quarter to win.
DFS is a load managed player to me. Its all about preserving his energy at this point in his career.
(12-05-2023, 06:16 PM)youzigizag Wrote: [ -> ]Ill take DFS...but not if the plan is to run him into the ground 40 minutes a night.
I would load manage him so much. I want him healthy and rested for playoffs. If we are doing well in games in the playoffs...rest him unless we need him in the 4th quarter to win.
DFS is a load managed player to me. Its all about preserving his energy at this point in his career.
Meet GW and DJJ.
(12-05-2023, 06:18 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Meet GW and DJJ.
Those guys are 25 and 26 though
(12-05-2023, 06:19 PM)youzigizag Wrote: [ -> ]Those guys are 25 and 26 though
Huh? My point was not that they play a lot of minutes, but rather that if we traded for DFS, they wouldn't be outgoing, and you could divide the SF/PF minutes between those two, Green, and DFS.
(12-05-2023, 06:23 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Huh? My point was not that they play a lot of minutes, but rather that if we traded for DFS, they wouldn't be outgoing, and you could divide the SF/PF minutes between those two, Green, and DFS.
I guess I was replying based on your dream scenario of acquiring DFS, back up center and OG by next summer.
If DFS is an issue with those others...which of GW and DJJ are you parting with?
I guess you feell out DJJ and see if his shot and defense are consistent. He has the length we need. I like Williams...I was reading on a Celtics forum that he started out hot for us but should equalize shooting wise. Ive already made a post of that...not making it up.
So...tough nosed Williams who is Luka's friend? Or DJJ? Seems like even though I think I have read that Williams was benched late in Playoff games...he still had somewhat of an impact on games. That sounds contradictory, Im aware. Almost seems like you just avoid DFS even though he has size, maybe some left in the tank for defense, has a 3 shot and knows our system. But Im not in the know enough to know if that would be smart or not.
I have trouble seeing a move for Dallas right now. If a attractive player hits the market, there will be a lot of competition. I think being patient but ready is the best strategy. Although, you have to believe Nico and Mark have itchy trigger fingers. I just have trouble seeing them having the winning assets for an attractive player at this time.
So I think the Mavs may need to look for a fringe type move or a guy who is waived (Is Hayward waived by Charlotte??). I was thinking of Patrick Williams. He has been a disappointment. He has showed some flashes, but just hasn't put it together. I have no idea what his market is or what Chicago would want. Would you trade Josh Green and a second for him? Or could you trade the asset Hardaway back plus Hardy for him? He fits better as a bigger wing, but may not be better than Josh. Is he someone you can get before he makes a jump? Or will he always be a tease?
(12-05-2023, 06:55 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I have trouble seeing a move for Dallas right now. If a attractive player hits the market, there will be a lot of competition. I think being patient but ready is the best strategy. Although, you have to believe Nico and Mark have itchy trigger fingers. I just have trouble seeing them having the winning assets for an attractive player at this time.
So I think the Mavs may need to look for a fringe type move or a guy who is waived (Is Hayward waived by Charlotte??). I was thinking of Patrick Williams. He has been a disappointment. He has showed some flashes, but just hasn't put it together. I have no idea what his market is or what Chicago would want. Would you trade Josh Green and a second for him? Or could you trade the asset Hardaway back plus Hardy for him? He fits better as a bigger wing, but may not be better than Josh. Is he someone you can get before he makes a jump? Or will he always be a tease?
Ill take the bait if you are setting me up...
Dont know if it is true or not....
But I read a RealGM post(I know I keep referring to RealGM lately...but thats where I get my NBA info and also letting you know its not my original thought...if even true)....someone posted that if you pay attention to games...when the two main ballhandlers arent in...Williams will put up 20points and good defense. I HAVE NO CLUE IF THIS IS TRUE. But if it was...why would be be considered tradable or trash?
If the internet played me and I didnt do my own due diligence....whatever. Just relaying info from an NBA board.
(12-05-2023, 06:55 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I was thinking of Patrick Williams. He has been a disappointment. He has showed some flashes, but just hasn't put it together. I have no idea what his market is or what Chicago would want. Would you trade Josh Green and a second for him? Or could you trade the asset Hardaway back plus Hardy for him? He fits better as a bigger wing, but may not be better than Josh. Is he someone you can get before he makes a jump? Or will he always be a tease?
I see similarities in Green and Patrick Williams.
They both think of themselves as "team players" - unselfish guys who moves the ball around and happy to do the dirty work. Neither are true scoring options, but has the talent to get buckets when they need to. But somehow wouldn't. Not sure if PW has the same confidence issues Green has, but Green has the better motor.
It was reported that PW is asking too much, the Mavs better stay with Green at his salary. The Mavs may not be getting what they paid for with Green's recent performances, but having another guy who's a bigger gamble is a no go.
I wouldn't trade JG+a second for PW, but I'd consider Hardy+Holmes+2nd for PW+Drummond.
I'm guessing PW wouldn't be re-signed by Chicago anyway, so Hardy is favorable to them. Hardy has potential while PW would be nothing more than a backup if he remains in Chicago. While PW as is doesn't excite people -- playing with Luka and Kyrie might still elevate his game. He could be another DJJr in the making.
(12-05-2023, 06:54 PM)youzigizag Wrote: [ -> ]I guess I was replying based on your dream scenario of acquiring DFS, back up center and OG by next summer.
If DFS is an issue with those others...which of GW and DJJ are you parting with?
I guess you feell out DJJ and see if his shot and defense are consistent. He has the length we need. I like Williams...I was reading on a Celtics forum that he started out hot for us but should equalize shooting wise. Ive already made a post of that...not making it up.
So...tough nosed Williams who is Luka's friend? Or DJJ? Seems like even though I think I have read that Williams was benched late in Playoff games...he still had somewhat of an impact on games. That sounds contradictory, Im aware. Almost seems like you just avoid DFS even though he has size, maybe some left in the tank for defense, has a 3 shot and knows our system. But Im not in the know enough to know if that would be smart or not.
I don't think DFS is an issue with those two. Green is going to get minutes at the two as well as the three. The stated goal of some knowledgeable posters here is to get someone good enough to bench GW. DFS is that man in size and fit. DJJ should be bench anyway. If they keep starting him, he's going to price out on us, in which case the supposed problem you brought up is "solved" when DJJ walks, but then you have to replace his minutes with someone not as good.
In my scenario, for this year, post trade the regular season minutes would be something like
Kyrie 30 - Exum 15
Luka 30 - Hardy 8 - Green 10
Green 10 - GW 30 - DJJ 8
DFS 30 - DJJ 18
Lively 25 - new backup center 23
(12-05-2023, 10:46 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think DFS is an issue with those two. Green is going to get minutes at the two as well as the three. The stated goal of some knowledgeable posters here is to get someone good enough to bench GW. DFS is that man in size and fit. DJJ should be bench anyway. If they keep starting him, he's going to price out on us, in which case the supposed problem you brought up is "solved" when DJJ walks, but then you have to replace his minutes with someone not as good.
In my scenario, for this year, post trade the regular season minutes would be something like
Kyrie 30 - Exum 15
Luka 30 - Hardy 8 - Green 10
Green 10 - GW 30 - DJJ 8
DFS 30 - DJJ 18
Lively 25 - new backup center 23
I reread your comment and you made total sense. You were saying GW and DJJ back up DFS minutes. I read too fast.
I like it if he is the cheapest to acquire, talent, fit.