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Brian and Mark comment on the last week’s developments. 

Generally, a COVID mess, but let’s get down to specifics. 


HEAD-SCRATCHERS IN LAST 28 SECONDS OF SAC GAME

28 Seconds

Timeout. Kidd may have been thinking that Sac was likely to play the foul game in that circumstance. Gentry elected the gutsier strategy, and it obviously paid off for him. 

Holding the Ball for 22 Seconds. No problem with running the clock down some, but they waited too long to run their play. Should have started the play with 8-9 seconds left, giving themselves time for a decent shot, resulting in a made bucket, offensive rebound, or, at worst, time running off the clock before Sac could call their last timeout. A poor shot attempt and a dead ball turnover was the worst possible outcome for the Mavs.  

Confusion on the Play. DFS and FN appeared confused about who was supposed to set the screen. Frank tried to do it, but Fox ended up blocking off Brunson from getting to his spot. Once that had happened, KP smartly moved to the post to salvage something, but didn’t get a clean catch, and had to take a whirlwind turnaround fadeaway 18 feet from the basket. Surprising to have that much confusion after a timeout. It is possible that the players were well coached and couldn’t execute, so we don’t know for sure that the confusion was on the coaches. However, having FN set the screen, if that really was the designed play, seems questionable.

4.3 Seconds

DFS Taking the Foul to Give. They understand why Kidd might have wanted to keep DFS out there, just in case they weren’t able to take the foul, but why was he guarding the guy who was going to have to be fouled? A puzzle. 

Taking the Foul Immediately. Having the best perimeter defender foul out to run off half a second with 3.8 left, was not ideal. In retrospect, Haliburton was not in a position to rise up and hit a shot from where he was, and they probably could/should have waited a beat longer. However, the podders understand the panic philosophy, and not wanting to take the chance that one of the Mavs would be baited into a shooting foul. 

3.8 Seconds

Brunson Guarding the Inbounds Pass. Really? Why even try to guard it, if you’re using Brunson? Why not a bigger defender? For that matter, why was Brunson even in the game on that possession? He’s not a good defender. A conundrum. 

Green Face-guarding Haliburton. Gentry chose to put an extra player in the back court on both this play and the previous one. Why were the Mavs guarding that player so closely? Even if he had caught a pass that far from the basket, not a great chance he would be able to do something with it. At any rate, Fox easily catches the inbounds. 

Ntilikina Closes Out on Fox Aggressively and at the Wrong Angle. FN takes an odd angle and Fox blows by him on the first step. Frank’s positioning gave him no chance. 

Powell Leaves Metu. Kidd implied after the game that he wanted guys staying home on shooters. That should have been specifically stated in the huddle, if that was the object. Was it? We’ll never know. At any rate, if nothing was said one way or another,  the pro-Powell argument is that they were about to allow an open layup that would tie the game, and any basketball player’s instinct would be to try to contest. Anti-Powell argument is that he exhibited a lack of awareness of time and place in allowing a game-winning wide-open three. 

Brunson Doesn’t Rotate Over. Brunson was on Barnes, and didn’t see Powell rotate because he had his back to the play. Poor execution.


GENERAL CLUTCH ISSUES

This kind of comedy of errors is the sort of thing that happens when your team is in a funk. They started 5-0 in clutch games, but have now lost 9 in a row. They have lost two leads in the last two weeks on the last play. It’s fair to say that a characteristic of the late run is that the Mavs consistently can’t close due to poor late-game execution.  

This is where the team badly misses Luka. The ball moves more now, but partly because it HAS to move more, as no one else can go to work and create shots for the other guys like Luka can. Likewise, no one else draws the defensive attention that he does, and he is a better rebounder than most of the guys on the court. He probably wouldn’t have run a last offensive possession that resulted in a shot clock violation. He has missed a lot of these lost clutch games, and it shows. The good news is, he'll be back at some point. 


EMERGENCY PLAYERS

The hardship players had a brief blaze across the sky, but it didn’t take long for the shine to wear off, and now Kidd has shortened the rotation to stick with his skeleton crew of regular players as much as he can. 

It is possible that the Mavs will consider one or more of the ten-days for a spot on the roster. They could consider waiving Trey Burke and signing either Knight or Thomas. Or they might think about waiving Willie and signing Pinson and/or Chriss. There is also a two-way spot available, and another could be created by waiving McLaughlin. However, none of Knight, Thomas, or Chriss is eligible for that, and at time of the podcast, MF had not received consistent answers on whether Pinson is. Chriss was a DNP in Sac, and only received garbage time against Portland, if anything can be read into that. 


COVID UPDATES

Bullock is back, probably getting his conditioning up to snuff, and will hopefully play in the second Sac contest on Friday. Tim might be back for the following game. The ten-days of Pinson and Chriss have expired, and some of the others will expire after the Friday game. Unless more players develop COVID, the emergency rosters should be evaporating soon, short of the Mavs deciding to pick any of the hardship guys up.


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There is 2 main points being discussed lately...ball movement is better without Luka but our clutch play has been horrific.. which one of them is the bigger problem I have no clue yet for an opinion but would love to hear from others on this ..

Also thanks once again ML ..
Un/clutchness

Am I miss-remembering things in thinking that the Mavs lost a disproportionate amount of close games last year (regular season)?

Can I ask what are you using as a definition of a 'clutch' game? Decided by fewer than a particular certain number of points? It would be interesting to look at those collections of games (maybe over recent years as well) a little more, imo.
(12-30-2021, 04:02 PM)BackToSquareOne Wrote: [ -> ]Un/clutchness

Am I miss-remembering things in thinking that the Mavs lost a disproportionate amount of close games last year (regular season)?

Can I ask what are you using as a definition of a 'clutch' game? Decided by fewer than a particular certain number of points? It would be interesting to look at those collections of games (maybe over recent years as well) a little more, imo.

Mavs were tied for 11th last season in clutch games, going 18-15. Iirc, this got better as the season wore on, and the Mavs were considered good clutch performers when the playoffs rolled around. 

"Clutch time" is defined as the last five minutes of a game when a team is leading or trailing by five points or fewer

In overtime games, the last five minutes of regulation count, as well as all overtime periods.

This is an NBA definition. If you would like to examine them a little further, separate stats are kept on these periods. For example, you could find them under Clutch Stats on nba.com.
(12-30-2021, 03:49 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]There is 2 main points being discussed lately...ball movement is better without Luka but our clutch play has been horrific.. which one of them is the bigger problem I have no clue yet for an opinion but would love to hear from others on this ..

Also thanks once again ML ..

I think there is a difference between more ball movement and better ball movement. I think this team currently has the former without Luka.
(12-30-2021, 03:49 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]There is 2 main points being discussed lately...ball movement is better without Luka but our clutch play has been horrific.. which one of them is the bigger problem I have no clue yet for an opinion but would love to hear from others on this ..

Also thanks once again ML ..

I actually think the statistics say that there is MORE ball movement without Luka, not that there is BETTER ball movement without Luka. I don't think this is anything new. Without Luka out there to create, the players have to rely more on passing to create good shots. However, the stats reflect that the shot quality generated by those passes is generally worse than the shots created for other important players when Luka is on the floor. 

I don't think the factual predicate that the ball moves more with Luka off the court is a good or bad thing in and of itself. It's more a matter of how the team generates shots with a top creator on the court and without. It seems that the Mavs are operating under the assumption that the best shots when Luka is on the court are created at least partly by Luka, and the best shots when he is off are created by ball movement. Generally speaking, of course.
(12-30-2021, 02:55 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Holding the Ball for 22 Seconds. No problem with running the clock down some, but they waited too long to run their play. Should have started the play with 8-9 seconds left, giving themselves time for a decent shot, resulting in a made bucket, offensive rebound, or, at worst, time running off the clock before Sac could call their last timeout. A poor shot attempt and a dead ball turnover was the worst possible outcome for the Mavs. 

Feels like there is was no advantage to run the clock down, because there was too much time left anyway. If its 2 seconds or less, i would totally be fine with a short clock violation. Even if you miss the early shot. Kings have the ball back with 15 seconds to go. Down 2.

It puts the Kings in the same situation as the Mavs. They don't want to score too early, and leave time on the clock to give the Mavs the ball back. You think its easier to score with 15 seconds than with 4, but the reality is probably the same. The offense might even be more stagnant, because Fox would hold the ball in similar fashion to kill the clock.
(12-30-2021, 04:20 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs were tied for 11th last season in clutch games, going 18-15. Iirc, this got better as the season wore on, and the Mavs were considered good clutch performers when the playoffs rolled around. 

"Clutch time" is defined as the last five minutes of a game when a team is leading or trailing by five points or fewer

In overtime games, the last five minutes of regulation count, as well as all overtime periods.

This is an NBA definition. If you would like to examine them a little further, separate stats are kept on these periods. For example, you could find them under Clutch Stats on nba.com.

Thanks for the answer. I didn't find the Clutch stats pages too useful as I couldn't figure out how to extract a list of a single team's clutch games from that page ... but that's almost undoubtedly a lolBTSO thing. Smile


I did, however, hack through the Mavs game pages and that was quite interesting. It certainly is true that the Mavs have recently lost to the Nets, Lakers and, latterly, Kings in extremely close late-game situations in the last couple of week.

Moreover, to have any serious thoughts I think one would have to do some scripting and really look across the whole league and several seasons. Nevertheless, just looking at the 'clutch' games the Mavs have been involved in this year the main determinant of who wins the game appears to be who was leading with 5 minutes to go. (Which really shouldn't be a surprise, I suppose.) 

Admittedly, I didn't get much feel for creation/lack-of-creation (for Mavs and opponents) so far, so this could well be an important factor, particularly in "really" close games. (I don't have a definition of that. Maybe something to do with lead changes in the the last 5 minutes - or one possession games??? fwiw, nba.com let's one sort the 'clutch' stats with 5 replaced by any number from 0-4.)