Brian and Mark take a look at who the Mavs are, after 11 games, and discuss some of the lineups.
How good are the Mavs?
As an initial measuring stick, the Mavs are beating the teams they’re supposed to beat. They’re not laying eggs against “bad” teams. Their losses are not hard to understand — there has been nothing that leaves us shaking our heads and asking how that happened. So we are getting a pretty good measure of how they fit into the hierarchy. Need a few more games under their belts to make an assessment.
Lineups
Some fans are very exercised about the starting lineup. In truth, the starting lineup is not that important. The closing lineup is much more critical. But there are items about the most-used lineups that merit discussion and explanation.
Bigs
There is a lot of anti-DP feeling among certain fans, and, in fact, those lineups are not working all that well. However, they’re likely the best solution at this point in time. Why?
The Mavs’ number one objective with respect to the bigs at this point is to conservatively load-manage KP, both in terms of minutes and in terms of what he is asked to do on the court. They specifically want to avoid making him play center full-time. If they want to go with two-big lineups for this purpose, then DP is their choice, by process of elimination. Maxi is injured. Boban is a situational option. Willie is not really in his bag. Moses does not yet have the trust of the coaches. DP is the best of several unideal choices.
Short of playing one-big lineups, which the Mavs are reluctant to do a lot of with KP in that role, there doesn’t seem to be a more viable solution at this point.
Maxi is not likely to be available for some time. Kidd promised that he would give an update on his condition after 7-8 days, but there is nothing to indicate that he will be back on any kind of imminent basis. Even when he is back, we are all familiar with the down side of ramping up Maxi’s minutes too high.
The Mavs are not ready to declare the Powell lineups a failure. There is a past history indicating that they can work, although the league now clearly recognizes Powell’s lob threat and teams now devote effort to stopping it. Nico says he thinks the plans they had for the offense this season should be given a minimum of twenty games to work, and Kidd agrees. They can’t expect Powell to be something he’s not, so they need to build the best combos they can, in light of that.
Non-bigs
The most obvious offensive fly in the ointment in the most commonly used lineups is DFS. His terrible shooting is affecting the spacing and bringing the rest of the offense down. But he is needed defensively. As far as the performance of these units, DP and Luka can’t be blamed for Dorian’s collapse on the offensive end.
Luka is not shooting as well or getting as good looks as he used to. The podders think a lot of this is due to the team’s experimentation with the offensive system. As bad as it may look now, the Mavs' view is that they have to diversify their offense if they want to maintain any hope of avoiding a first-round exit. They don’t think they have a big enough sample size yet to judge it, and so far, the experimentation is not costing them games. If it does start resulting in avoidable losses, they may have to change their tune.
Brunson is benefitting greatly from KP’s improvement, especially in the JB-KP PNR. JB acknowledges that, saying that he knows he won’t be collapsed on because KP’s defenders are usually reluctant to leave him. It remains to be seen whether that will be sustainable in the playoffs.
We should know something more in a week, when the next podcast is due.
As long as Kidd is at the whelm, I have no idea, how I will enjoy watching this team anymore. They will go nowhere with this offensive approach. Very frustrating. I always thought the fear of Luka leaving at some point was overblown, but Kidd has changed the equation completely. This is atrocious to watch and Luka will be fed up rather sooner than later. Get the fossil of D´Antoni in asap. My god, unbelieveable how Kidd has messed up this offense.
(11-11-2021, 04:50 PM)Thukydides Wrote: [ -> ]As long as Kidd is at the whelm, I have no idea, how I will enjoy watching this team anymore. They will go nowhere with this offensive approach. Very frustrating. I always thought the fear of Luka leaving at some point was overblown, but Kidd has changed the equation completely. This is atrocious to watch and Luka will be fed up rather sooner than later. Get the fossil of D´Antoni in asap. My god, unbelieveable how Kidd has messed up this offense.
In this regard, Haralalob Voulgaris, controversial former Mavs analytics chief, weighed in on the Mavs last night. People may or may not think highly of Bob, but I don't think the criticism of him was ever that he gave bad advice, but more in the nature of his self-admittedly abrasive personality.
If I remember correctly, he was scornful of the new offensive system, and without naming Kidd, indicated that he thought the team's coaching had taken a tumble. He was dismissive of extreme concerns about Powell, who often holds up pretty well analytically. Added that the Mavs' defensive weakness isn't really against big bruisers, and even if it were, there are only a handful of those guys in the league. Said the most significant defensive weakness was their ineptitude at defending a small spread offense.
Bob doesn't mind calling it like he sees it, lol.
(11-11-2021, 05:03 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]If I remember correctly, he was scornful of the new offensive system
They've moved away from his spread pnr
He might end up being right, but the Mavs are pretty honest about why they're diversifying.
(11-11-2021, 05:03 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]In this regard, Haralalob Voulgaris, controversial former Mavs analytics chief, weighed in on the Mavs last night. People may or may not think highly of Bob, but I don't think the criticism of him was ever that he gave bad advice, but more in the nature of his self-admittedly abrasive personality.
If I remember correctly, he was scornful of the new offensive system, and without naming Kidd, indicated that he thought the team's coaching had taken a tumble. He was dismissive of extreme concerns about Powell, who often holds up pretty well analytically. Added that the Mavs' defensive weakness isn't really against big bruisers, and even if it were, there are only a handful of those guys in the league. Said the most significant defensive weakness was their ineptitude at defending a small spread offense.
Bob doesn't mind calling it like he sees it, lol.
You can look through my posts. I´ve always held Bob in high regards. He´s intelligent, but sadly not very diplomatic. Boy, he could tell Kidd a few things, I´m sure. But now we´re stuck with watching this mess until Cuban wakes up and gets rid of Kidd. How could he ever get another job in the NBA? How? Just how?
(11-11-2021, 05:08 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]They've moved away from his spread pnr
He might end up being right, but the Mavs are pretty honest about why they're diversifying.
I don't really report Bob's comments with the idea that they are right or wrong. More as a matter of general interest, and still shaking my head at his eyebrow-raising bluntness, lol.
If I recall, he did not have a problem with diversifying the offense, but thought that if the diversification had an objective of going away from Luka running his lineups, they were headed in the wrong direction.
Even besides all that, if the role players can't shoot, then the team is headed for disaster. The roster was built on the premise that Luka (and to a lesser extent, one or more other playmakers) will secure awesome shots for everyone, and that the role players would hit their shots at a good clip. They aren't built to feature big low post scoring, and to some extent, if they want to change the offense, they need to get players who are better suited to run their new system.
(11-11-2021, 05:23 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]if they want to change the offense, they need to get players who are better suited to run their new system.
It'll be interesting to see if that's where we're headed.
Does the "20 game" thing mean that if they don't see players that can play in a diversified system by game 20 or 25, that they don't have the players that fit their vision, and that the trade deadline tactic will be aggressive?
(11-11-2021, 05:28 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]It'll be interesting to see if that's where we're headed.
Does the "20 game" thing mean that if they don't see players that can play in a diversified system by game 20 or 25, that they don't have the players that fit their vision, and that the trade deadline tactic will be aggressive?
I don't remember that being suggested.
More like, they will assess where they are after 20-25 games, and see which of the new experiments they are trying they want to continue with, modify, or abandon. It is not expected that every experiment will survive the assessment.
Ultimately, they may change some personnel, but I don't think they tied that to any kind of 20-game fish-or-cut-bait deadline as far as keeping or offloading guys.
(11-11-2021, 05:08 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]They've moved away from his spread pnr
He might end up being right, but the Mavs are pretty honest about why they're diversifying.
The spread pnr was amazing, imo. The thing they were doing the best.
I wanted diversification as much as anyone, but what I meant was that more of those spread shooters should have the skills to attack rotations and closeouts, not that they should completely redesign the team's approach to spacing, which was PRIMO.
(11-11-2021, 05:12 PM)Thukydides Wrote: [ -> ]You can look through my posts.
I'm willing to take your word for it, Thukydides.
I´ve always held Bob in high regards. He´s intelligent, but sadly not very diplomatic. Boy, he could tell Kidd a few things, I´m sure. But now we´re stuck with watching this mess until Cuban wakes up and gets rid of Kidd. How could he ever get another job in the NBA? How? Just how?
That's more or less what I thought when he got this one, lol. REAL-LY??!!
But since he's here, I hope for his success.
(11-11-2021, 05:34 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I don't remember that being suggested.
More like, they will assess where they are after 20-25 games, and see which of the new experiments they are trying they want to continue with, modify, or abandon. It is not expected that every experiment will survive the assessment.
Ultimately, they may change some personnel, but I don't think they tied that to any kind of 20-game fish-or-cut-bait deadline as far as keeping or offloading guys.
I haven't heard that suggested. That's just me musing over what they're fishing for out of the first 20-25 games. Seems pretty clear that the 20-25 games has to do with finding out what the players can do so that they can make system and lineup decisions. The idea that they also may be making determinations about which players fit their vision is a guess. Most likely wrong, but it's something I'm curious about.
(11-11-2021, 05:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I wanted diversification as much as anyone, but what I meant was that more of those spread shooters should have the skills to attack rotations and closeouts, not that they should completely redesign the team's approach to spacing, which was PRIMO.
that sounds good to me
I apolgize ahead of time for what I'm about to ask....
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/tPdYQaW6oCIOA/giphy.gif)
Is KP mostly the reason why we're moving away from the spread pnr?
(11-11-2021, 05:43 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I haven't heard that suggested. That's just me musing over what they're fishing for out of the first 20-25 games. Seems pretty clear that the 20-25 games has to do with finding out what the players can do so that they can make system and lineup decisions. The idea that they also may be making determinations about which players fit their vision is a guess. Most likely wrong, but it's something I'm curious about.
I would guess that all of that is involved. Short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term analysis.
I don't think the 20-25 game estimate was a hard-and-fast, this-is-your-last-chance kind of thing. More an estimate as to when they would have enough additional data to base an update of their plans on.
(11-11-2021, 05:47 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Is KP mostly the reason why we're moving away from the spread pnr?
No idea.
I would venture a guess that Kidd was brought in with the mandate of making it work with KP, and that it's possible they're trying to design an offense that KP likes, sure.
But, it's also likely that Kidd just doesn't have as much experience designing an offensive system as Carlisle. I mean, it's Carlisle. The Lakers' recent success wasn't exactly due to them being at the state of the art in offensive design, so I guess it's possible that Kidd's ideal system is a little bit antiquated, even. Plus, we don't really know how much input Kokoskov has. Maybe he's the one not getting the needed results?
I don't know.
(11-11-2021, 05:49 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think the 20-25 game estimate was a hard-and-fast, this-is-your-last-chance kind of thing.
Oh, gosh, I didn't mean to suggest that. Just a check point. But a check point that could have some impact on how they start preparing for the trade deadline.
(11-11-2021, 06:09 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Hopefully this isn't what "I want them to be basketball players" is supposed to mean
I have very frequently had this exact thought since he said that.
Sometimes, those to whom excellence comes so naturally (speaking of Kidd the player here) have trouble identifying what it is that enables them to achieve and teach it to others.
(11-11-2021, 06:14 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Sometimes, those to whom excellence comes so naturally (speaking of Kidd the player here) have trouble identifying what it is that enables them to achieve and teach it to others.
Completely agree with this and can attest to it from experience.
Ability to teach is not a skill that automatically accompanies brilliance. And in fact, in my experience, brilliance can (but doesn't always) hinder teaching ability.
To add to some of the concerns. Prior to the season Kidd mentioned that he wanted to change some things. And we actually saw a different approach in the preseason. Higher pace. Less 3s. More midrange. More inside scoring.
That´s all gone.
Mavs rank 5th in the league in 3PAr. 29th in points in the paint. Only thing that remains is an increased midrange volume.
Mavs rank 25th in pace. The defense is looking better but they aren´t forcing a lot of turnovers (rank 20th) and are even worse when it comes to transition offense. 28th in fastbreak points. 30th in points of turnovers.
Summary of this. The Mavs aren´t getting anything easy and as @"KillerLeft" mentioned they are struggling in the half court.