A few tidbits from the latest pod by Brian Dameris and Mark Followill.
Kidd. They discuss the adverse comments about Kidd in the new Giannis book. The comments are concerning. However, Dameris has the impression that the Mavs are not very worried about them. Mark says he has personally heard Nellie, Avery, and Rick come down very hard on players every now and then, in ways that would appear concerning if they were written down and published. Most coaches have that in their toolkit, but recognize that it can only be used sparingly, if it is to be effective.
Kidd may well have learned his lesson on that issue in LA. Frank Vogel is a mild-mannered coach, and may have shown Kidd that you don’t have to be a fire-and-brimstone coach all the time to succeed, and that such a manner may even be counterproductive. Kidd also learned about dealing with superstars, who have to be handled a little differently.
The podcasters note that none of the bad comments came from Giannis, and that the potential impact of some of the reports may be overblown. They are still hopeful that Kidd has learned his lessons and will be a good coach here.
Markkanen. Mavs are interested in Lauri, but at least for now, the Bulls’ asking price is way too high for what the market will bear. Markkanen is not interested in signing for the trade exception for three years. They don’t think anything will necessarily happen on that front any time soon, but you never know.
The podders think that it would be worth signing Markkanen as an asset, if nothing else, if the Mavs don’t have to give up a first-round pick or players who are pencilled in as part of the team's long-term future. If there are players who have already been slated to be phased out, it might be worth offering them to attain a young asset with some possible upside.
Maxi. In that regard, Dameris questioned whether Maxi is in the Mavs’ long-term plans. Kleber is almost 30, has only one fully guaranteed year left on his contract, has a history of injury problems, and has had two poor showings in the playoffs. Dameris questioned whether the team is really likely to re-sign him for multiple years, should he make it to free agency. He presented these comments as his own observations, rather than something anyone in the front office told him.
Roster-building. They note that the Mavs’ primary route to improving the team from now until 2024 will necessarily be through trades.
Brunson and DFS. No news on extension talks. The question here from the team’s point of view is whether they want to get these guys locked up at current prices and secure them as assets, or whether they want to wait until next summer and re-sign them with Bird rights if they still need them. They will not want to repeat the Powell mistake of overpaying them too early. Of course, the player has something to say about extensions, too.
From that standpoint, they have a gut feeling that Brunson will want to test the market and see if he can find a starting role somewhere else. Doe-Doe loves it here, but has ramped up his value since his last signing, and the money will probably be important to him, as his next contract may be his last chance at a sizable payday. So, it may not be realistic for the Mavs to expect a significant home-town discount for him.
Summer league. They suspect that the job of putting together a summer-league roster more or less got lost in the shuffle this season, with all the personnel changes at the Mavs, and the team wasn’t very good. The guy who got the two-way is still very raw, and likely a project headed for the Legends.
Other. The podcasters note a few remaining free agents available (along the lines of DSJ and Ntlikina). They also analyze the new schedule. They are looking forward to the season.
(08-21-2021, 10:18 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Dameris questioned whether Maxi is in the Mavs’ long-term plans. Kleber is almost 30, has only one fully guaranteed year left on his contract, has a history of injury problems, and has had two poor showings in the playoffs. Dameris questioned whether the team is really likely to re-sign him for multiple years, should he make it to free agency. He presented these comments as his own observations, rather than something anyone in the front office told him.
100% with Dameris here.
(08-21-2021, 01:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]100% with Dameris here.
Do you have a thought on what all players the Mavs may have designated as probable exits when it comes time for a new contract? I tend to agree that Maxi might well be on the list at this point.
FWIW, Dameris and MF thought that DFS and Brunson would be good buys if they would re-sign for something in the single digits, but if they get much beyond that, the Mavs might be willing to just let them go.
(08-21-2021, 02:20 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Do you have a thought on what all players the Mavs may have designated as probable exits when it comes time for a new contract? I tend to agree that Maxi might well be on the list at this point.
FWIW, Dameris and MF thought that DFS and Brunson would be good buys if they would re-sign for something in the single digits, but if they get much beyond that, the Mavs might be willing to just let them go.
I still need more evidence about how Nico will function as a GM, but here are some thoughts and guesses:
1) I think Nico will sign all contracts and extensions moving forward with a two pronged focus, a) to help the team now but ultimately b) to be a future trade asset.
2) I fully expect all the contracts on this team to be used (or readily available) for some massive trade to try to get Luka a second star. I do not think the Mavs are truly attached to DFS, JB, Maxi, or anyone else not named Luka.
3) My guess is that especially DP, Maxi, JB, and KP will all be gone within the next year. I think DFS will be in that group too, but am less confident on him.
(08-21-2021, 03:07 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]3) My guess is that especially DP, Maxi, JB, and KP will all be gone within the next year. I think DFS will be in that group too, but am less confident on him.
I don´t say it´s not possible or a bad thing in every case. But I have a hard time seeing how giving away 3 starters and our 6th and 7th man will improve our roster.
Especially as this players have all more value to us than in a trade.
Is there anyone special you could see to be available for this package?
Makes sense that the "holdup" on the LM deal is that none of the three sides are happy with what is being offered. I seriously doubt it has anything to do with Moses Brown becoming trade eligible.
(08-21-2021, 03:44 PM)Mapka Wrote: [ -> ]I don´t say it´s not possible or a bad thing in every case. But I have a hard time seeing how giving away 3 starters and our 6th and 7th man will improve our roster.
Especially as this players have all more value to us than in a trade.
Is there anyone special you could see to be available for this package?
We still are looking and talking like this team is coached by RC and GM’d by Donnie. We really need to stop thinking in those terms until we see what Kidd and Nico has in store for them.
When we look at this in terms of what NYK did (tear it all down and rebuild, some in trades others in FA, and others in draft) the players being set pieces don’t look as set as they once did.
I’m fine with any player movement as long as the result is a better team, and I’m patient enough to see that through
fully. Not as soon as something happens (although I will have my own immediate thoughts as to whether or not the transaction is good or not, but they will not be worded in absolute terms), but after the vision of the transaction is realized or not.
I wonder what the ProfitX projection is for DFS and Brunson? 4/50 seems like a fair price for either
(08-22-2021, 06:21 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder what the ProfitX projection is for DFS and Brunson? 4/50 seems like a fair price for either
I would guess something like ...
DFS: 4 yrs/$40M
JB: 4 yrs/$55M
(08-21-2021, 03:07 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I still need more evidence about how Nico will function as a GM, but here are some thoughts and guesses:
Agree that we don't have a lot of evidence on that. I would have to say that, judging by his performance so far, I don't know that we have much objective evidence for the likelihood of major changes. (Of course, we always have the unobjective emotional optimism of being fans.)
Why do I say this? He may not have made any observable mistakes, depending on how his moves work out, but nothing impressive has happened either. We still don't have our second star, our second playmaker, or our rim-protecting, rebounding big. He was sold as a guy who had the contacts to help us in free agency, but if free agency is no longer going to be a primary avenue of acquiring talent, then I don't know.
Not saying at all that Nico won't eventually move to improve the team, just that he's still a question mark at this point. Which I think agrees with your take that we need more evidence.
1) I think Nico will sign all contracts and extensions moving forward with a two pronged focus, a) to help the team now but ultimately b) to be a future trade asset.
I am reading this as a statement that, at a minimum, players have the potential to be one or the other.
2) I fully expect all the contracts on this team to be used (or readily available) for some massive trade to try to get Luka a second star. I do not think the Mavs are truly attached to DFS, JB, Maxi, or anyone else not named Luka.
Agree that no one is untouchable if a second star is available. As to whether that second star will materialize, who knows? I do think they are still hoping that KP will get back on track and be that second star.
3) My guess is that especially DP, Maxi, JB, and KP will all be gone within the next year. I think DFS will be in that group too, but am less confident on him.
The next year? Wow. That would be a MAJOR overhaul of the roster, as opposed to the tinkering around the edges that we have seen so far. You think Nico is going to blow it up next summer if the second star doesn't arrive?
Thanks for the thoughts. Specific observations above.
https://twitter.com/SloHoopsFan/status/1...55936?s=20
Do you disagree with the above take from ESPN?
Having said all the above, I think the question still exists as to whom the Mavs view as probably too expensive to re-sign, even if a second star doesn't appear (similar to Brandan Wright, Aminu, and Crowder -- players we later learned that the Mavs were not planning to re-sign, once their contracts were up).
I could easily see JB and DFS on that list. They might well lose their luster if you're having to pay them, for example, in the mid-teens. While the Mavs may feel they didn't have an avenue to do better at their current salaries, they might well upgrade them for whatever leap in salary requirement occurs.
(08-21-2021, 03:07 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I still need more evidence about how Nico will function as a GM, but here are some thoughts and guesses:
1) I think Nico will sign all contracts and extensions moving forward with a two pronged focus, a) to help the team now but ultimately b) to be a future trade asset.
2) I fully expect all the contracts on this team to be used (or readily available) for some massive trade to try to get Luka a second star. I do not think the Mavs are truly attached to DFS, JB, Maxi, or anyone else not named Luka.
3) My guess is that especially DP, Maxi, JB, and KP will all be gone within the next year. I think DFS will be in that group too, but am less confident on him.
I will be disappointed if there is not an extension for Brunson. This is where win/win negotiating should prevail. Should there is a chance he gets a bigger deal next offseason, but that is not guaranteed. If he gets hurt, he is not Kevin Durant. 12/13 millionish per year is life changing money and for a 3 year contract with a player or team option on the 4th, still allows another big payday if he continues to play well. Maybe he wants to start, but there are not many places who have a clear opportunity to start currently. Get him signed. He is good and if you get him on a team friendly contract he will still be a good asset. And Brunson will be in a good spot here as well.
I do agree that I think in a year (maybe less) either Maxi or DFS will not be here. Most days I think it is probably Maxi who is not here. DFS as a 4 million expiring salary is very valuable but the team who trades for him would not get that 4 million price tag for long. The signing of Bulluck and Brown plus the development of Green, makes it tough to play both Maxi and DFS. Especially since neither of any of these players can create offense by themselves.
Am I the only one that doesn't feel good about these numbers for Brunson being thrown around? He was so limited in the playoffs, and you can say that the Clippers may have been one of the worst possible matchups for him, but having a number of athletic/lengthy wings on the court at a time is the way things are trending.
You could argue that 1) it was his first playoffs and he's still young so he has time to adapt (though he'll have to do that within the confines of his own size and athleticism) and 2) that even if the league is trending toward the way of the Clippers, it is unlikely for a large number of teams to get that combo of players that could reproduce the perfect anti-JB storm.
I like Brunson, so I want him to either stay with us or find a nice fitting home (through trade) that will bring us back something valuable. I just don't know if over-MLE money is right, I really do think more along the lines of $7 per year.
(08-22-2021, 08:17 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]The next year? Wow. That would be a MAJOR overhaul of the roster, as opposed to the tinkering around the edges that we have seen so far. You think Nico is going to blow it up next summer if the second star doesn't arrive?
Yeah, I was shocked that Nico stood pat for the most part.
But Chad Ford absolutely nailed that prediction and warned us fans right after Nico was hired that it was the most likely scenario for DAL. He also said he thought the coming trade deadline and next offseason would be times of big overhaul for the roster. I have no reason to start doubting Chad Ford now, so that is a big part of where my prediction comes from. So yeah, I expect MAJOR overhaul in the next 12 months.
(08-22-2021, 12:05 PM)DrMav Wrote: [ -> ]Am I the only one that doesn't feel good about these numbers for Brunson being thrown around?
I am 100% in the "trade him and cash him in" camp. I am fine if the extension comes before that, but I would hope the Mavs are lining up potential trades for him.
(08-22-2021, 12:05 PM)DrMav Wrote: [ -> ]I like Brunson, so I want him to either stay with us or find a nice fitting home (through trade) that will bring us back something valuable. I just don't know if over-MLE money is right, I really do think more along the lines of $7 per year.
Tough to tell what players are worth right now because there are signs of the market sort of slowing down from the spending that we've observed over the past few years. And, I'm not meaning to weigh in on your "should they or shouldn't they" question, but my gut tells me $7 million per is way low for Brunson. If that's the number you like for him, you should probably be hoping for a trade.
I suppose there's a chance they could get him for a good number by extending now, but that's just a guess.
(08-22-2021, 01:31 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Tough to tell what players are worth right now because there are signs of the market sort of slowing down from the spending that we've observed over the past few years. And, I'm not meaning to weigh in on your "should they or shouldn't they" question, but my gut tells me $7 million per is way low for Brunson. If that's the number you like for him, you should probably be hoping for a trade.
I suppose there's a chance they could get him for a good number by extending now, but that's just a guess.
It's tough. Are "what players are worth" and "what players get paid" two different things, or are they the same things because the market dictates that the two are equal? The huge cap increase and COVID economics have thrown additional wrenches into how we think about that.
Just for me, I guess I still look at them differently, and I think that on an open market Jalen would have a good shot of getting MLE or slightly higher money based on his resume thus far. But I think that unless the playoffs provided a very valuable lessen that allows him to take his limitations in size/athleticism and become even more crafty, he's been exposed as a bench guard that can be a 6MOY contender in the regular season but can easily be slowed down by focused attention from a team with lengthy athletes. Maybe he can, maybe he can't.
What do you pay for that? For a team just looking to take the next step to get into the playoffs maybe that is super valuable. Maybe for a true contender adding someone like Brunson to help them manage through the regular season and contribute 10-15 mins/game in a playoff series against backups is definitely worth MLE value. For a team like the Mavs who are neither, but have aspirations of perennially entering that true contender tier in the next 1-3 seasons, at what value does Brunson do that, if at all.
I wouldn't be upset necessarily if Brunson got $10-12M per year from the Mavs, but until Cuban proves he's willing to go back into the luxury tax, I am definitely concerned with overpaying since it will come at the expense of someone else. I think if you can only keep one of the two due to price, DFS is the one to keep. I'm really looking forward to seeing DFS and Bullock on the court at the same time defending the perimeter.
(08-22-2021, 11:56 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I will be disappointed if there is not an extension for Brunson. This is where win/win negotiating should prevail. Should there is a chance he gets a bigger deal next offseason, but that is not guaranteed. If he gets hurt, he is not Kevin Durant. 12/13 millionish per year is life changing money and for a 3 year contract with a player or team option on the 4th, still allows another big payday if he continues to play well.
DFS as a 4 million expiring salary is very valuable but the team who trades for him would not get that 4 million price tag for long. The signing of Bulluck and Brown plus the development of Green, makes it tough to play both Maxi and DFS. Especially since neither of any of these players can create offense by themselves.
The good news/bad news on the “negotiating” front is there is a limit to the upper end number for both players (120% of the average salary). If either player thinks they are worth more than that, there is no negotiating to be done.
What do we think the comps are for Brunson. I think you can argue he’s at the upper end of backup PG’s in the league. Rose $13.4, Clarkson $12.4, Graham $11.0 and Morris $8.8 are probably the comps. The floor is probably the MLE (surely someone will pay that next summer). Typically, a player will leave a little on the table to get security a year early.
I don’t think Green, Bullock and Sterling are germane to any conversation about DFS. Finney-Smith gets a good deal of his minutes at PF (or has). Stop me when I get to the guy you would take over DFS…
12.0 Oubre
12.7 Warren
15.6 Marcus Morris
16,0 Bertans
16.1 OG Anunoby
16.4 A Gordon
Yeah, it was Anunoby for me also. If DFS is still starting, this could get expensive. But, if someone has pushed him to the bench, maybe Warren/Oubre money gets it done. There are some challenges to adding a “star” (besides the whole getting them to agree to come here thing).
1. What actually fits best next to Luka (I thought the Milwaukee article in another thread was insightful in saying Beal and Lillard are not fits. I’d probably add LaVine).
2. Who do you replace? It wouldn’t shock me to see any of DP, Maxi, DFS, WCS or Markkanen starting in the front court next to KP (what is the old saying about when you have two potential starting QB’s, you really have none). I also think we have five guys who could conceivably fill the two wing/guard spots alongside Luka (DFS, Bullock, THJ, Dragic or even Brunson). Instead of an embarrassment of riches, we have an embarrassment of average NBA players. Great for depth purposes. Not great for overwhelming teams with talent.
(08-22-2021, 03:20 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]12.0 Oubre
12.7 Warren
15.6 Marcus Morris
16,0 Bertans
16.1 OG Anunoby
16.4 A Gordon
I don't think any of these are a good comparison for DFS. They are all way bigger offensive threats and this has value. Anunoby is way younger. I think Royce O'Neale, Crowder, Tucker types are more relevant comparisons. Hard working defense first guys who are limited offensively.
If I had to judge Nico solely based on this off-season, I don´t think anything has changed, but the names on the cover. Didn´t do anything in the draft. Didn´t do any asset management/youth movement either.
BUT....
....the summer is not over yet....
AND
....you have to give him another 12 months. You can´t fix the sh*t he inherited in four weeks. But I think two summers and a TDL, plus lots of contracts expiring or entering the final year, he gains a ton of flexibility to move pieces around, so his actual long-term plans become clear. Assuming he has long-term strategies, which is never a sure thing with this franchise.
So there is still a chance that the roster looks completely different in 12 months. For example as long as Porzingis stays healthy for six months, you could most definitely dump him for expiring contracts to a rebuilding place like Orlando, Detroit or even Sacramento. That´s easier to do with two years left than three. With two you are more than half way through the tunnel and can see the light at the end already.