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Full Version: Long-term predictions? (Special Thanks-Thread)
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Dear forum,

this thread has two objectives:

First and foremost, I have to give a BIG shoutout to all of you guys in the last couple of days. I have been only lurking while all this drama unfolded but anything NBA and especially Mavs-related, I come here for my news. Obviously, mavsluvr is a big part of this with his summaries of podcasts and articles and, as Marc Followill, obvious knowledge about how the media perceives everything. I would also like to mention Killer, kammrath, fif, IGT, hakeem and a couple of guys more which I just can't seem to remember the nicknames. I am sure I will not do every one justice here, but a forum like this is a community effort and I love all of you for your ongoing contributions. It's a real good thing we've got going here right now.

I think I made my point: Thank you, sincerely.

Btw I LOVE that we all write like THIS now.

Getting to my second point: Since the Mavs are in turmoil right now and nobody really knows what's next, I thought it was interesting to give some long term predictions. Meaning how will the next 1/2 seasons look for us? I am aware that this is just a guessing game but I mean we all have our own individual FEELING towards the Mavs, towards the decision ma®kers (haha), players, etc.

I tend to be optimistic in such situations because our championship showed me, that thinks CAN work out fairly in the end. It is not a given, but the potential is there. The world does NOT conspire against me and my Mavericks. So like, I think, hakeem said in another thread: Everything after '11 is just the icing on the cake for every Mavs' fan alive right now so we should just keep that in mind whilst going forward.

So, my predictions and thoughts for now and the next couple of months:

1) I believe Mark to be really full of himself but I can't imagine, this has not shaken him up. I hope it has woken him up. I also hope, Dirk "advising" him, is really just not a PR stunt but after a couple of fruitful interactions, Mark finally realizing that he was to change HIS ways in order for the Mavs to change as an organisation. We have failed miserably the last decade.

Obviously this is the first premise for real change being able to happen. If Mark does not change, we are not doomed but it is very likely that we don't maximize Luka's time here and maybe not even get anything out of it (we did not maximize Dirk but we at laast got a ring, two finales, an MVP-title and 10+ years of relevance to show for) unless we get REALLY lucky.

2) I believed in RC as our coach but after everything I heard in the last couple of days, it's time for a new start with a new coach. I am okay with it. I am NOT okay, however, with the way it went down. Mark effectively undermining his coaches authority via this Bob-person. This CAN'T happen. So again, we need 1) to happen, otherwise it is going to be difficult moving in the right direction.

I really don't know who we get as a coach but I bet it is going to be a fresh face, like Mosley or someone else who is young, new and inspiring.

3) This Bob-guy has to go. I don't care if he is good at analytics - too much has happened surrounding him and it is time to make a cut. This dude is obviously kind of inter-personally disabled and we should NOT have him near the players. Also getting back to 1). I unfortunately predict he will not be gone but that still does not mean a big part of 1) also will not happen. But at the very least, Bob has to be less involded in the roster-building-process and overall decision-making.

4) I want somebody proven as GM. Give me a young coach and a fresh start, an improved Mark and a clearer sense of hierarchical structure in the organisation (1+2+3) but we need some experienced, badass as GM. I think Donnie is a nice guy and had his strengths but he never struck me as a great GM and after 24 years... come on. Everybody was way too comfortable and that does just not work for 2+ decades.

There had to be changes in the staff. However, I fear Mark will also go with somebody young and unproven on the big stage, which I think would be a mistake. Mark likes to be the cool guy whom the kids love, so I think he will take the change to revitalize himself by going barely legal. I don't think it is going to be Chandler Parsons, but something like that would NOT surprise me at all.

5) I hope everything Mark and/or the Mavs do this upcoming (off-)season is angled towards making Luka happy. Which means he HAS to be consulted in those matters. There's where you have to use Dirk - Luka needs to be involved but have someone like Dirk, who has been in his shoes, to teach him how not to think he has all the power now. This is about making Luka happy, but not at all cost. I would rather not have Luka at all than a spoiled-brat MVP candidate. This might be too much to ask, since we lucked out with Dirk once, but I still hope and think that Luka can be this kind of guy (with the right influence, hence Dirk).

If Luka does not sign his extension with us because of this dumpster fire, I will shoot myself. If Luka does not sign the extension or leave us early because he did not get to dictate everything within the organisation, I am okay with that. Huge difference.

6) I think if Bob at least gets a smaller role in the roster-building processes (because I plainly think he sucks, since everything that gets attributed to him turned out to be a failure), I am sure that we will have a BETTER roster next season. Better in the sense of better complimenting Luka. I think it is possible to work KP back into our team with a new structure and a new coach. That's where I did not understand RC. So even if we a re stuck with a mediocre KP, I think the next coach will make it work better and this alone will be enough to make us a better team. Also the new GM and the new coach are likely to have new, and hopefully better, ideas to maximize Luka's and KP's potential. I know I have not made a good argument for this, but I geuss my best reasoning is that it can't get much worse, can it?

7) So I think half of what I said will happen in the positive sense, half of what I said will not happen or happen in a negative sense. I fear we will not have the HUGE turnaround and change that we need (because of Mark), but I think it will be enough of a turnaround to make us better instantly and also long-term. I am optimistic about that. I don't know if it's good enough to make us serious contenders but Luka alone will keep us relevant.

TLDR:

1. Thank you this forum, you are awesome.
2. Things need to change and they will do a degree. We will improve as a whole.
3. Mavs will finish 4th in the West next year and go to the second round with Luka reaping MVP-honors.
(06-22-2021, 04:29 AM)meistermatze Wrote: [ -> ]Btw I LOVE that we all write like THIS now.

It's easy to overdo, but quite satisfying.
Thanks for the kind words MM. Really appreciate it!

I’m with you on 1. Mark needed to be shook. His ego is just too big. Hopefully after roughly 20 or so years of doing what he wants (he needed at least some time to learn and ramp up to where he is at now), he sees the results speaking for themselves and steps back at least a little bit to let another persons vision come to the forefront of this team’s process.

I’m with you on #2 as well, unless Mark isn’t shook and he lets happen what happened to RC continue to happen to the next guy. Guys who are just happy to have a shot at being a HC in the NBA would possibly be even more susceptible to that kind of treatment, and this becomes even more of a MC signature team…like the Cowboys.

I’m with you on 3, 4 and 6.

I can’t fully get with you on 5 except for the sentence “I would rather not have Luka at all than a spoiled-brat MVP candidate.” It doesn’t sound like Luka wants to even be consulted on FO decisions, which is a good thing. If he doesn’t want it, don’t do it. If he does want it, don’t do it. Either way, don’t do it, IMO.

(06-22-2021, 07:55 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]It's easy to overdo, but quite satisfying.
Ya, I try to mix in bolds and some underlines here and there. Need to work on my italics game though!
Also, I don’t know how to not overdo the exclamation point!!! Please slap me for that!!!!!
1.  I hope Mark Cuban is shook up now.  I never have been very high on Cuban as a man, or as an NBA owner.  Yes...he does have flashes where he does something good and/or right.  But there are also times his narcissism gets in the way of making good decisions.  So...maybe this will be a wake up call for him--but...

2.  I guess we will agree to disagree on Carlisle.  I do agree that Cuban has undermined his coach and GM in several ways...not the least being with this Bob guy.

3.  I agree with this except that this Bob guy has to go.

4.  Yes!  A proven, badass GM and a young, progressive, intelligent coach.

5.  Keep Luka at all costs.  If he is a immature, spoiled brat then put people around him who will teach and help guide him to a better personal, and team, culture.  This man is a generational talent.  Handled the right way he may become a top 5 of all times.  That's pretty good...

6.  I don't want this Bob guy around the team.  I don't understand how Cuban, Donnie, Carlisle, and any other management allowed the kind of culture we're learning about to happen.  This is a wake up call.  It has to change.

7.  Unfortunately I sort of agree with you on this.  I remain optimistic...

Thanks for your analysis.  I agree...this is a great forum.  Yeah...4th is the West...
Oh, hopefully next year this team adds protecting home court to it’s away win profile too!!!!
My prediction for next year:

We make pretty much no moves in the offseason, bring back THJ, Mosley is coach, and Finley or whatever is GM.  I think the team bonds over Rick quitting on them and we benefit from continuity and are #1 in the west going into the allstar break, and then KP sprains his knee trying to climb on the platform at a Latavian transvestite strip joint while he's on vacation and the whole season falls apart.