Might not mean anything, but some interesting facts related to Boston's deal for Horford:
1. Boston has $11,050,000 of the TPE left from the Hayward deal. If JRich opts in soon enough, he can be traded into that TPE. Powell also fits into that TPE now and in the new season using the $100,000 spread on the TPE.
2. Jamahl Mosley doesn't have too many ties left from his coaching stints prior to Dallas. But he did coach Tristan Thompson in Cleveland.
3. Boston and Dallas both have some locker room issues and new coaches and GM's looking for a fresh start.
4. KP's timeline fits much better with Boston than Horford. Boston could use a PG, but not someone who will take the ball out of Tatum's hands. Both G and R Williams are Duffy guys and Nesmith played for Stackhouse at Vandy and is a Schwartz guy (I know, that may not be a thing any more). Marcus Smart is with Happy Walters, who used to be with Excel.
So, let's say Dallas already knows it is trading KP no matter what. Jake Fisher recently said on a podcast that Dallas absolutely did make outgoing calls on KP before the TDL. There will soon be a new sheriff in town and one of the greatest gifts Mark could give him is flexibility.
So, let's say Boston is offering Kemba and #16 for KP. They'd like to get rid of Thompson...who has to go because he was a huge problem in their locker room (OK, but you have to take Powell). Dallas is like...No, we aren't taking Kemba. Pair the pick with him and go get us someone cheaper. So, Boston does the Horford trade super early. I'm too lazy to look up whether aggregation carries into the new season, but even if it does, the trade can be announced 8/1 and executed on 8/18.
Now, I'm not saying this is only KP/Powell for Horford/Thompson. But, it is a start. We've saved $6mm in 2021 cap space and moved Powell off the books in 22. In fact, if you want to create room in 22, Horford can be S/W for $4.8mm next summer. That saves $21.7mm plus another $11mm for Powell as Thompson is only a one year deal. You've also created a TPE for Powell's salary and Horford is a grown up and Thompson will play nice for his buddy Mosley.
There are all sorts of ways to change this up. JRich can be added. Maybe Brunson/JRich for Smart (expiring). Boston isn't going to pay Smart a year from now and they need a cost controlled PG. BTW, can we also get Nesmith in such a deal? So far, we are operating over the cap and have the TPE and the MLE to add players.
One of the more interesting things about this is the new GM has a ton of flexibility. Brunson, Smart (or JRich), DFS, Maxi (non-G), Thompson, Burke and Willie are all free next summer. I've already mentioned we made KP and Powell disappear for $4.8mm in dead salary. Heck, because you are over the cap you can overpay THJ on a big one year deal if you'd like. The MLE guy could also be a one year guarantee and/or you could find a TPE trade for a guy with one year left (Satoransky fits in a Powell TPE and might be helpful if you trade Brunson). You could literally field a team with almost no returning salary besides Luka.
Luka/Satoransky/Terry
Smart/THJ/Green/Burke
DFS/THJ/Green
Batum (MLE)/Maxi/Bey
Horford/Thompson/Willie
Thanks! I always enjoy these thought exercises!
@"DanSchwartzgan", you're the best around at connecting the dots on the "human side" of the business.
Question, and I hope I word this in a way to give the thought justice:
You have very quickly adjusted your thinking to suggest that we should let go of some connections that we've lived with for years, basically since both Nelsons came to Dallas. That's astute. However, is it possible that we should adjust our thinking even more, lowering the import of any human connections, at least temporarily, or do you think those dots get connected for every team, and it's just a matter of figuring out what the new ones will be? Or, will a lot of this not change at all because Cuban remains?
I hope the question makes sense.
@"DanSchwartzgan" if the Mavs clear the books for 2022, who do you see as main targets? Lavine? Who else?
(06-19-2021, 06:00 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]So, let's say Boston is offering Kemba and #16 for KP. They'd like to get rid of Thompson...who has to go because he was a huge problem in their locker room (OK, but you have to take Powell). Dallas is like...No, we aren't taking Kemba. Pair the pick with him and go get us someone cheaper. So, Boston does the Horford trade super early.
I hear what you're saying, and it's a great idea. I just have a hard time believing Dallas is at all involved in the Kemba deal considering Boston made it after Dallas lost both their coach and GM and has no idea who will be leading them in a few weeks. It's not exactly the best time to work a delayed trade heavily dependent on mutual trust between two front offices.
(06-19-2021, 06:50 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]I hear what you're saying, and it's a great idea. I just have a hard time believing Dallas is at all involved in the Kemba deal considering Boston made it after Dallas lost both their coach and GM and has no idea who will be leading them in a few weeks. It's not exactly the best time to work a delayed trade heavily dependent on mutual trust between two front offices.
Yeah, I wonder whether the deal with OKC happened when it did specifically BECAUSE Nelson and Carlisle had just left Dallas. As in, because Boston was left with only one team offering a center for Walker.
WILD speculation, obviously, but the thought crossed my mind.
(06-19-2021, 06:00 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Luka/Satoransky/Terry
Smart/THJ/Green/Burke
DFS/THJ/Green
Batum (MLE)/Maxi/Bey
Horford/Thompson/Willie
That is jus a complete nothing line-up.
Luka 25.4 (caphold, what number counts if he signs the super-max extension this summer?)
THJ 17.0
Horford 14.5 (dead cap minimum/spotrac)
Batum 10.0 (MLE)
DFS 7.6 (caphold)
Green 3.1
You have 78M committed to these five players. In the process you have added no picks, no young players, no tradeable contracts/assets. Are you trying to get Luka to leave?
It was really really really time that Carlisle/Donnie left, cause you are all completely veteran damaged with all these trade ideas recently.
You trade Porzingis you either get your space back or you get a young player/s, ideally a combination of both like Harris/Bamba or Turner/Lamb.
The time to get Batum was his $27M expiring contract for a future 1st round pick, not now. The lazy as** didn´t try for two years on a max contract. Then he plays well on a contender, cause hey it´s a contract year. Now you want to reward him with another four year contract, so he can get back on the chess&wine diet?
Hi Dan,
Have you submitted your resume to the Mavs yet?
Sincerely...
(06-19-2021, 07:20 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]That is jus a complete nothing line-up.
Luka 25.4 (caphold, what number counts if he signs the super-max extension this summer?)
THJ 17.0
Horford 14.5 (dead cap minimum/spotrac)
Batum 10.0 (MLE)
DFS 7.6 (caphold)
Green 3.1
You have 78M committed to these five players. In the process you have added no picks, no young players, no tradeable contracts/assets. Are you trying to get Luka to leave?
It was really really really time that Carlisle/Donnie left, cause you are all completely veteran damaged with all these trade ideas recently.
You trade Porzingis you either get your space back or you get a young player/s, ideally a combination of both like Harris/Bamba or Turner/Lamb.
The time to get Batum was his $27M expiring contract for a future 1st round pick, not now. The lazy as** didn´t try for two years on a max contract. Then he plays well on a contender, cause hey it´s a contract year. Now you want to reward him with another four year contract, so he can get back on the chess&wine diet?
I think you need to re-read his post. He said sign THJ to a large one year deal and do a one year MLE deal. Also horford can be stretch waived for $4.8 million. So yeah the cap sheet would be clean.
I’ve seen you knock everyone’s ideas but you have failed to come up with a realistic off-season plan. KP has negative value. We’ll be lucky to get Wiggins back for him. Are you the one that keeps talking about getting Lavine? Lavine has said he’s willing to take less than max to extend with Chicago. What makes you think we have a realistic shot at him? Come up with a realistic off-season plan and then you can knock other people’s ideas.
This is a great idea. For '21, going under the cap we can even throw some 1y/2y (TO) overpays to guys like Dragic/Batum. Can't see many teams offering them 30M/2y (TO). Assuming J-Rich opts out, we'd go in '21 with:
Luka/Dragic
Smart/Green
DFS/rMLE (has to be ashooter like Bullock/Korkmaz/Bazemore)
Batum/Powell (I swapped Maxi because he has more value and I felt we were stealing a bit there)
Horford/Thompson
We could probably dump Powell+Burke attaching Green/Terry to them, going in '22 with only Luka and Horford's dump money on the books (very extreme).
Batum and Thompson? I'm going to be physically ill.
(06-19-2021, 06:00 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Luka/Satoransky/Terry
Smart/THJ/Green/Burke
DFS/THJ/Green
Batum (MLE)/Maxi/Bey
Horford/Thompson/Willie
Very interesting. I’m thinking of rosters and line ups in a whole new paradigm since watching the Clips in 2 playoff series. As a result, my new concern is how many guys we’ve got who can stay on the court no matter the opponent/line up thrown at them. Not who can star. Not who can play well. Who can even stay on the court. Zubac can’t. Neither can Beverly. Who can for the Mavs?
1. Luka
2. DFS
3. THJ
4. Healthy Maxi (I think)
5. Brunson? Maybe?
6. Probably not KP
7. Certainly no one else
What is that, 4.5 guys? Yikes.
Dan’s proposal has us keeping the 4 top guys by this criteria. To them, we’d be adding playoff veterans Smart and Batum. That plus flexibility sure doesn’t sound awful.
(06-19-2021, 07:27 PM)Mavsfan7 Wrote: [ -> ]I think you need to re-read his post. He said sign THJ to a large one year deal and do a one year MLE deal. Also horford can be stretch waived for $4.8 million. So yeah the cap sheet would be clean.
So we sign a 29 year old THJ to a 30M dollar contract instead of overpaying three young players at 10M each?
We acquire Horford, when the same can be accomplished using Harris/Bamba and not add 14.5M in future capspace, cause I´ll use that spotrac number, until you provide a different source.
You can get this cap clean and actually try out players under 25 to see whether one of them can blossom in a different environment.
One year contracts for 30+ year old veterans like THJ, Satoransky, Thompson, Horford and Batum to maximize our 2021/2022 ceiling at another 1st round exit, block young players from opportunities and have absolutely no long-term plan except more Powder.
Wow, this shit could be straight out of the old Nelson/Donnie/Cuban playbook. No it is the PLAYBOOK.
(06-19-2021, 09:40 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Somebody needs to explain to me how this idea is ANY DIFFERENT to Plan Powder?
You can´t hate on the MBT and then praise this idea.
The idea (as I understand it) is that with a NEW coach and GM the Mavs might actually be able to attract top flight talent around Luka, so giving them a "clean slate" could be really appealing. This is different from the past in that HUGE components have changed.
Also, some of the beauty of what DanS offers is connecting dots and numbers that fit together really well, demonstrating HOW GMs might think. I find that to be a very fun exercise.
(06-19-2021, 09:44 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]The idea (as I understand it) is that with a NEW coach and GM the Mavs might actually be able to attract top flight talent around Luka, so giving them a "clean slate" could be really appealing. This is different from the past in that HUGE components have changed.
Also, some of the beauty of what DanS offers is connecting dots and numbers that fit together really well, demonstrating HOW GMs might think. I find that to be a very fun exercise.
So it´s Plan Powder with the hope that the new GM is a better salesman than the MBT.
That does not change the fact that Dan loaded up the whole roster with 30+ year old roleplayers on one year contracts to roll over/create capspace for 2021/2022, when the same could be accomplished with younger players that have significant upside/re-trade value.
Unless of course you think we´ll win the championship next year by replacing Porzingis, WCS, Powell, Richardson with Horford, Smart, Satoransky, Thompson and Batum. Then I approve the idea.
(06-19-2021, 09:44 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]The idea (as I understand it) is that with a NEW coach and GM the Mavs might actually be able to attract top flight talent around Luka, so giving them a "clean slate" could be really appealing. This is different from the past in that HUGE components have changed.
Also, some of the beauty of what DanS offers is connecting dots and numbers that fit together really well, demonstrating HOW GMs might think. I find that to be a very fun exercise.
To piggyback onto this, the change of direction and vision creates openings to players that might have thought previously that their role is unnecessary to our team. The new GM gets to sell his new vision to those players. It might be an attraction.
(06-19-2021, 09:56 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Unless of course you think we´ll win the championship next year by replacing Porzingis, WCS, Powell, Richardson with Horford, Smart, Satoransky, Thompson and Batum. Then I approve the idea.
It's a significant improvement to a 5th seeded team AND the only legit way I can see us adding a true #2 option (Beal, Lavine, etc.) next to Luka.
Any news on the DeAndre Liggins trade chip?
Sorry I had to.
(06-19-2021, 06:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I wonder whether the deal with OKC happened when it did specifically BECAUSE Nelson and Carlisle had just left Dallas. As in, because Boston was left with only one team offering a center for Walker.
WILD speculation, obviously, but the thought crossed my mind.
Yeah, that crossed my mind also and it probably makes more sense. If Boston only had two active paths for getting rid of Kemba...Dallas and OKC...and Dallas is a mess all of a sudden, then grab the other while you can. I get that. There is some reporting that the Hayward TPE will expire earlier than the full 365 days because the NBA is moving back to a more normalized calendar. Basketball Insider estimates the TPE may expire around 8/16 (their estimate) even though the Hayward trade was done on 11/29. It could just as easily expire on 8/18 or 8/19 since it is a made up date. Rushing the Kemba deal may have been an attempt to be able to aggregate Horford in a deal that is done before the TPE expires. It doesn't mean it has to be Dallas-centric. It doesn't prevent it from being Dallas-centric either.
It is far easier to believe Boston was simply acting in its best interest (Horford is easier to move than Kemba + 16 and fits better if you have to keep him), than to believe some convoluted two-stage arrangement that occurs over a two month period. But, that doesn't mean the two teams don't already know there might be some synergies here. If Dallas has already decided to move on from KP because the relationship with Luka is worse than we know, they don't have to wait for a new GM to do that. Especially if it can be done while adding flexibility to the roster. If I were coming in fresh and could grab total flexibility while also adding Smart, Horford, Satoransky, Batum and Thompson to Luka, THJ, DFS and Maxi, I'd probably do that. The point isn't the specific names. The point of the thread (my 4th in 19 months on this board) is the clean slate, though I would contend Smart, Horford, Satoransky, Batum and Thompson > KP, Powell, JRich and Brunson...No? And as I said in the OP, I think KP is a good fit in Boston.
I thought the Thompson/Mosley relationship and the Powell and JRich fit with the TPE to be interesting. There are smaller deals to be had here that don't have to revolve around KP. Is there anyone who wouldn't turn Powell into expiring Thompson (emphasis on expiring)? Would Chicago pay us something to move Satoransky into the Powell TPE? Is one year of JRich better for Boston than multi-year for Fournier? And all of that is before getting into agent relationships that might bring in Robert Williams or Nesmith.
Speaking of which, I completely understood your other question. You can't presume the relationships will remain the same...especially if the Forde firm gives us a strong outsider for the top spot. That person will bring a whole new set of relationships to the table. But, it is a trust business and relationships are very important. Cuban still has relationships (good and bad). It isn't/wasn't 100% Donnie. I don't think you can assume the Schwartz thing died with Donnie's departure. Tyler made a really good point the other night that I intended to respond to regarding Duffy. I believe the formula is Cuban/Duffy = Bad (at least historically) It can certainly change with time, but I suspect there will always be some strain there. Donnie/Duffy = Good. Carlisle/Duffy = Bad. Tyler theorized that removing Carlisle from the equation might be more valuable than losing Donnie. My theory is the one remaining relationship...Cuban may still be Bad. I don't know for sure.
Duffy's first job is to get the extension done. If Luka fires Duffy tomorrow, Duffy doesn't get a piece of the extension...only what Luka earns on contracts signed while Duffy was the agent. His second job is to make Luka a global icon...the next Lebron. It is in his interest to help Dallas get better...at least for now. If it doesn't happen within a reasonable time, his job will be to get Luka somewhere it can happen. Dallas is well positioned globally. There is no NEED to go to the coast for Luka to be the most famous player on the planet. The 24-25 season is the critical one. Once we get to the summer of 25, Luka will be a year away from possibly walking for nothing (I'm assuming he gets the PO in the fifth year). Dallas has to be humming before then. The point of this thread was really about a path to flexibility sooner than would be possible if we trade for Kemba or Bertans or Wiggins or Hayward. Something with Boston gives us a great opportunity to clean the slate and let Cuban and Duffy and whoever the new GM is get to work. The clock is ticking.
Finally, thanks to Clutch and others for the kind words.
I don't think there is anything behind Kemba trade and Mavs involvement for several reasons.
1. Most importantly, making moves before new GM is signed is not a gift of giving him a clean slate to work with imho. It is a bad sign he will be a puppet while others will decide direction. New GM can always do the cleaning up by himself if he thinks this is the best way. But it is not the only possible way and GM should decide which one is. If you want him to be strong and independent. Absolutely nothing should be done before GM is selected, imho.
2. If we forget number 1 and think Mavs still want to do it, it would be a much easier thing to simply do a three team trade. Why separating this into several trades limiting options what you are allowed to do or not (like aggregating contracts).
3. Thompson is reportedly a locker room cancer. Do you want to give this gift to the new GM? Even if Mavs have locker room issues new GM would be dealing with known facts and could act accordingly. This way he might just get a time bomb.
As for the rest I think Boston is still looking to reduce the payroll. They dumped their best center last season to get below tax line. If they want to resign Fournier and stay below tax they still need to reduce salaries. I just don't see them adding players through TPE. I would expect sooner from them tey are willing to pay someone to take Tristan in cap space or for minimum salary back.
Smart is an interesting option. I have a hunch there is a leadership clash in their lockerroom between Brown and Smart dating since last year bubble. However, Stevens reportedly loves Smart. Brunson for Smart remains an interesting option. Brunson for Boston youngsters like Williams brothers could also made some sense, although I doubt it.