2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks

[OBX Maverick]

Just cannot watch NBA media talking heads. Everyone and their mother picking Minnesota. Vegas favoring Minnesota. But if the Mavs lose the series Luka is a career loser that couldn't take his team to the finals.

If you recall in 2011, the media picked Dallas to lose every round. Watch those knuckleheads to get a laugh more than anything else!

[Winter]

I don't know if this was said elsewhere....

But the best thing about not playing Denver is not playing IN Denver.

[Jakeospikez]

Not really liking the Mavs chances if Kleber is out for most of the series. No backup for PJ and they'll always be real big. PJ in early foul trouble is way worse in this matchup than OKC. Can't run the Kleber/PJ lineup to mess with Rudy like in the past on the Jazz either. Wonder if they'll consider giving OMax some limited bench minutes cause there is no backup 4 at all otherwise. Maybe they got some small ball strat in mind.

[raf]

Mavs win in 6. wolves arent that good, nuggets were tired after a tough battle in the first round and their bench wasnt as good as last season.

[Smitty]

MIN 3P%
Conley 44% - 5 3PA
KAT 41% - 5 3PA
Reid 41% - 5 3PA
NAW 39% - 4 3PA
ANT 35% - 7 3PA
McDaniels 33% - 3 3PA

Looks like Mavs will build their rotations to play off McDaniels and to an extent ANT.

Like they did for Giddey/Dort and Westbrook/Mann.

Kyle Anderson and Gobert the only non-shooters from deep out of their 8-man rotation.

I wonder if the Mavs elect to put Luka on KAT and PJ on McDaniels so that PJ can play help defense. It won’t be an every possession type move but something they can go to if need be?

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Just cannot watch NBA media talking heads. Everyone and their mother picking Minnesota. Vegas favoring Minnesota. But if the Mavs lose the series Luka is a career loser that couldn't take his team to the finals.

They should be favored after dismantling Denver, and finishing a game back of the best record in the West with the top ranked defense. Doesn't mean they automatically win the series either. That's why they play the games. I disagree with Luka being labeled a career loser if he doesn't win a title. Think of all the great players in league history who haven't won one. Jordan denied plenty of them by himself. Sometimes, things aren't meant to be.

[dirkfansince1998]

They should be favored after dismantling Denver, and finishing a game back of the best record in the West with the top ranked defense. Doesn't mean they automatically win the series either. That's why they play the games. I disagree with Luka being labeled a career loser if he doesn't win a title. Think of all the great players in league history who haven't won one. Jordan denied plenty of them by himself. Sometimes, things aren't meant to be.

I don't have a problem with people favoring the Wolves. I think they are the favorites. What I don't get is how Luka is a career loser if they themself think that he is the underdog in the series. It's one or the other. If the Wolves are supposed to win the series they cannot act as if Luka is a failure because he couldn't defeat the heavy favorite.
I don't think the Mavs were the Vegas favorite in a single series of Luka's career but for some reason he is supposed to do the impossible and win against all odds every single time.

[ThisIStheYear]

Out of the three playoff matchups so far, I’m most confident about this one, though I do wish Maxi were available. A Celtics matchup in the finals would be very difficult. I’d be least confident about that series. But that’s a problem for the future. The Mavs should beat the Wolves. Luka and Kyrie are a bad matchup for them and the Mavs now have enough size to neutralize the Wolves advantage in that area.

Oh, and also, Luka does need a title to validate his career. It just doesn’t have to be this year. This is the easiest era to win one. No one wins back to back anymore.

[BolsDamols]

Whether we like it or not, the narrative of Luka's career has changed. A lot of focus is now on his complaining/barking at the refs, which was actually not that bad (by his standards) in Game 6. Every talking head was talking about SGA and OKC potential after the Mavs just eliminated them, not what the Mavs have accomplished. And of course, Ant is the hottest thing right now even with the 6/24 Game 7 after they eliminated the champs.

Shai (who is actually older) and ANT are the shiny new toys now. Win the title and put the narrative on its head. This is the only way.

[fifteenth]

"The mob is fickle."

Haven't we all been doing this long enough to know the drill? Some of the media doesn't talk actual basketball. They create storylines to entertain, and not all the storylines can be positive. Since they don't actually talk basketball, they have to say something.

The nice thing about the internet these days is that you can find people who actually talk basketball for reals. Go find those people. Links to actual, real life basketball talk gets posted around here every once in a while.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Out of the three playoff matchups so far, I’m most confident about this one, though I do wish Maxi were available.  A Celtics matchup in the finals would be very difficult. I’d be least confident about that series. But that’s a problem for the future. The Mavs should beat the Wolves. Luka and Kyrie are a bad matchup for them and the Mavs now have enough size to neutralize the Wolves advantage in that area.

Oh, and also, Luka does need a title to validate his career. It just doesn’t have to be this year. This is the easiest era to win one.  No one wins back to back anymore.

You can flip the script and say Minnesota is a bad matchup for Luka and Kyrie as well. It's not all inclusive. Mavs added size, but how Gafford and rookie Lively perform vs KAT, Gobert, and Reid will be key. It will be intriguing to see how it plays out.

[Winter]

In the game the Mavs won during the regular season, Dwight Powell was our biggest player. We only lost the rebounding battle 51-44.

There are a lot of ways help negate the size disadvantage.

[DallasMaverick]

In the game the Mavs won during the regular season, Dwight Powell was our biggest player. We only lost the rebounding battle 51-44.

There are a lot of ways help negate the size disadvantage.

It's possible that Dwight is the key player in the series.

MVP, anyone?

[Smitty]

It's possible that Dwight is the key player in the series.

MVP, anyone?

If Powell plays anything other than garbage time, this series didn't go well for the Mavs.

[michaeltex]

Gripes for the day, post-OKC.

Kind of tired of seeing all Minny chosen in the predictions, but then I don't think many gave DAL much chance in the last round either. Hope it's motivation.

Lot of talk about how fantastic it was for MIN to overcome 20 point deficit to win. Nobody references DAL overcoming 17 point deficit in their elimination game.

Lots of analysis using seasonal rankings for offense, defense, point differential, etc. Haven't seen any recognition that the current DAL team is NOT a reflection of last season's averages. Maybe post-TDL would be more valid, but I haven't seen any "expert" using that data. IMO, very little of the national coverage recognizes the magnitude of the change after the trades.

For some reason, the consensus is that MIN length will bother Luka, but I think he averaged 36/6/10 in the two games he played against MIN this year. Give him multiple games against the same team and you will see him explode in a way that will remind everyone just how good he really is.

That said, I really belive this team, although centered on Luka, is more than just Luka. The team play they have built over the last few months is something that doesn't really show in the stats. At least, other than the one that really counts, wins. MIN will find out that over committing to stopping Luka will cost them in other ways.

Thanks for listening. I feel better now.

[Winter]

Gripes for the day, post-OKC.

Kind of tired of seeing all Minny chosen in the predictions, but then I don't think many gave DAL much chance in the last round either. Hope it's motivation.

Lot of talk about how fantastic it was for MIN to overcome 20 point deficit to win. Nobody references DAL overcoming 17 point deficit in their elimination game.

Lots of analysis using seasonal rankings for offense, defense, point differential, etc. Haven't seen any recognition that the current DAL team is NOT a reflection of last season's averages. Maybe post-TDL would be more valid, but I haven't seen any "expert" using that data. IMO, very little of the national coverage recognizes the magnitude of the change after the trades.

For some reason, the consensus is that MIN length will bother Luka, but I think he averaged 36/6/10 in the two games he played against MIN this year. Give him multiple games against the same team and you will see him explode in a way that will remind everyone just how good he really is.

That said, I really belive this team, although centered on Luka, is more than just Luka. The team play they have built over the last few months is something that doesn't really show in the stats. At least, other than the one that really counts, wins. MIN will find out that over committing to stopping Luka will cost them in other ways.

Thanks for listening. I feel better now.

It really does appear that Minnesota is the new media darling. 

It's a little understandable as all the talking heads just watched Minnie beat the defending champs. ANT is the new wow factor, and the Minnie defense is all the rage. That said, I have watched the regular season games between us and Minnie, and the size issue just wasn't all that much of a thing. It's very likely PJ Washington will have as much impact as any one player on the Mavs since he works on both offense and defense. 

Kleber would be helpful, but if he remains out the bench advantage goes to Minnesota. Still, winning a few games is certainly not out of the question - and probably not as lopsided as the media makes it.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/4018...series-mvp


ESPN talking heads Conference Finals predictions.

[DallasMaverick]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/4018...series-mvp


ESPN talking heads Conference Finals predictions.

So it’s a 9-6 tilting of opinions towards Minny. 

Vegas also favors Minny right now.

So yes, Dallas is the underdog. But not by a huge margin.

Take a gander at the Boston-Indy odds!

[SleepingHero]

Luka's first 7 playoff games: 28.3/8.4/9.4 on 39/22/83 Mavs 4-3

Luka's last 5 playoff games: 26/11/9 on 47/44/79 Mavs 4-1

Maybe Luka is starting to feel a bit better. If he is feeling back to his regular self then the Mavs have a really good chance. If he's still hobbled and playing like he was to start the playoffs, this is going to be a very very very hard series and most likely a loss.

[Winter]

Another interesting thing that I've been reading in regard to media predictions. At least three online articles I've seen have discussed the need for Hardaway to have a good series. For those of us watching the Mavs regularly, I'm pretty sure we all know that seeing Hardaway more than 5 MPG is unlikely. That ship has sailed I think. It easily feels as if Hardy will see those minutes now.