2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks- MAVS WIN 4-1!

[mvossman]

Another interesting thing that I've been reading in regard to media predictions. At least three online articles I've seen have discussed the need for Hardaway to have a good series. For those of us watching the Mavs regularly, I'm pretty sure we all know that seeing Hardaway more than 5 MPG is unlikely. That ship has sailed I think. It easily feels as if Hardy will see those minutes now.

I think you are underestimating Timmy minutes.  He has averaged over 14 a game in the playoffs.  He only had 6 in the last game, but its a little early to think that is a significant trend.

[Winter]

I think you are underestimating Timmy minutes.  He has averaged over 14 a game in the playoffs.  He only had 6 in the last game, but its a little early to think that is a significant trend.

Nothing would make me happier than to see Hardaway have efficient minutes. 

I think Hardy may have an inside path based on what Kidd has said recently about Hardy, but you may be right. If I'm Kidd, I would least test the THj water a little.

[Knutsen]

So it’s a 9-6 tilting of opinions towards Minny. 

Vegas also favors Minny right now.

So yes, Dallas is the underdog. But not by a huge margin.

Take a gander at the Boston-Indy odds!

To add to your point: nobody is predicting the series to go less than 6 games. And for the Mavs to lose in 6 they would have to lose an elimination game at home - which I don‘t think is the most probable outcome, I would predict it goes to a game 7 then. And that’s where everything’s possible.

[The Jom]

Fascinating thread. You all seem to think putting the 6-9, 185 lb guy on Luka is gonna be their plan of attack? Really? After Dort, that sounds like HalleLuka to me.

I get that the 23-yr old is long and can try to force Luka into the teeth of that super-long Minny interior D. But isn’t that exactly what our offense TRIES to achieve—Luka driving into the lane and drawing the double team?

I mean, I’m the one who claims to have lupophobia. But not because of the 185-pound twig. Methinks Minny’s gonna need a bigger boat.

[DallasMaverick]

I’ll go out on a limb and say Mavs in 5.

Kidd is better at game-to-game adjustments.

https://youtu.be/Lz7iFFoUOnw?feature=shared

[Knutsen]

Fascinating thread. You all seem to think putting the 6-9, 185 lb guy on Luka is gonna be their plan of attack? Really? After Dort, that sounds like HalleLuka to me.

I get that the 23-yr old is long and can try to force Luka into the teeth of that super-long Minny interior D. But isn’t that exactly what our offense TRIES to achieve—Luka driving into the lane and drawing the double team?

I mean, I’m the one who claims to have lupophobia. But not because of the 185-pound twig. Methinks Minny’s gonna need a bigger boat.

Weren’t they playing Towns on Durant in the first round for extended minutes? That series was over so quickly I can‘t really remember. But first checking Durant and then Jokic would at least qualify him to try against Doncic. Same with Edwards, but Luka should be able to owerpower him.

If they don’t have anyone who can at least somehow guard Luka one on one it will all depend on us exploiting the double teams much better than the Nuggets where able to.

[KillerLeft]

Here’s something I find fascinating: two of the three teams who made significant changes at or just before the trade deadline are still playing.

I have long observed that deadline additions almost never amount to a significantly moved team-ceiling for the rest of that season. The really good ones seem to help much more the FOLLOWING season, after a training camp and much more comfort and continuity for the newly formed team. You can think about all the Mavs’ deadline additions to verify this: Van Exel, Butler/Hayward, Kyrie Irving…etc. And, it’s the same with other teams usually, too.

But THIS YEAR, the Washington addition for the Mavs worked basically from the jump, raising the team’s ceiling IMMEDIATELY, and the Siakim addition for Indiana might have been an even easier/better fit. Both of those teams are in the final four because they made those deals.

Is this just coincidence that both players fit like gloves so easily? Should we glean something about how similarly all teams play these days, as in there’s just less of a learning curve when going to a new team? Is the top level of the league just easier to break into these days than it used to be because of the increased roster turnover?

[michaeltex]

Fascinating thread. You all seem to think putting the 6-9, 185 lb guy on Luka is gonna be their plan of attack? Really? After Dort, that sounds like HalleLuka to me.

I get that the 23-yr old is long and can try to force Luka into the teeth of that super-long Minny interior D. But isn’t that exactly what our offense TRIES to achieve—Luka driving into the lane and drawing the double team?

I mean, I’m the one who claims to have lupophobia. But not because of the 185-pound twig. Methinks Minny’s gonna need a bigger boat.

Due to injuries and WWE-style defense by OKC, we've lost sight of how nuclear Luka can go in a playoff series. I predict he re-introduces himself during this series. I'm trying to understand, given the current high self-confidence of DAL, just who MIN leaves open to double Luka. That plan didn't work so well for OKC. OTOH, I don't see MIN withstanding the pain if they let Luka "get his" while covering everybody else.

But I haven't stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in a while, so what do I know.

[michaeltex]

But THIS YEAR, the Washington addition for the Mavs worked basically from the jump, raising the team’s ceiling IMMEDIATELY, and the Siakim addition for Indiana might have been an even easier/better fit. Both of those teams are in the final four because they made those deals.

Is this just coincidence that both players fit like gloves so easily? Should we glean something about how similarly all teams play these days, as in there’s just less of a learning curve when going to a new team? Is the top level of the league just easier to break into these days than it used to be because of the increased roster turnover?

That's a great observation!

I think the key to PJ's success was that there was such a glaring need for improved defense that he only had to focus on one thing initially. For the most part, any scoring was a bonus and mostly valuable to keep defenses hones. But he prides himself as a complete player and he's upped his offense as the stakes have gotten higher.

Gaff came into a similar situation, but once Luke realized he had a reliable lob-buddy, that aspect really took off. But that was more about Luka/Kyrie setting him up than integrating a shooting skill. The dunkathon is a real threat for both 5's and helps freeze the defense whenever a Mav drives into the paint.

[mvossman]

Here’s something I find fascinating: two of the three teams who made significant changes at or just before the trade deadline are still playing.

I have long observed that deadline additions almost never amount to a significantly moved team-ceiling for the rest of that season. The really good ones seem to help much more the FOLLOWING season, after a training camp and much more comfort and continuity for the newly formed team.  You can think about all the Mavs’ deadline additions to verify this: Van Exel, Butler/Hayward, Kyrie Irving…etc. And, it’s the same with other teams usually, too.

But THIS YEAR, the Washington addition for the Mavs worked basically from the jump, raising the team’s ceiling IMMEDIATELY, and the Siakim addition for Indiana might have been an even easier/better fit. Both of those teams are in the final four because they made those deals.

Is this just coincidence that both players fit like gloves so easily? Should we glean something about how similarly all teams play these days, as in there’s just less of a learning curve when going to a new team? Is the top level of the league just easier to break into these days than it used to be because of the increased roster turnover?

I think its a fairly small sample and mostly circumstances.  The KP trade was another one that fit immediately.  That was a case where the incoming player (Din) fit better on the new team than old, and same can be said for PJ.  The Kyrie trade left the Mavs without a starting power forward and also coincided with a lot of Luka injury.  

The Siakam trade was another great fit trade, but to be honest the biggest reason Indy is still in the playoffs is NY completely disintegrated before their eyes.

[KillerLeft]

The Siakam trade was another great fit trade, but to be honest the biggest reason Indy is still in the playoffs is NY completely disintegrated before their eyes.

I agree, kind of, but you're only looking at the one series. I don't think many people had IND getting past the FIRST round.  I'm not really thinking about how these teams got past their specific opponents, comparatively, my thought is more about adding someone at the deadline and that actually resulting in a real, live improved team down the stretch of that season. This is so rare (according to my anecdotal observations) that I had almost become conditioned to expect disappointment in the playoffs every time the Mavs make a deadline deal. 

Have you looked at the kind of post season Siakam is having? They are featuring him, and he's delivering. I almost can't remember a fit happening so seamlessly, even in a trade over the summer, let alone the deadline. 

Washington is helping already probably because (to your point) there was a gaping DFS hole left on this team from the Kyrie trade and I suppose it makes sense that they have PJ trying to fill it. Thank goodness he was up to it! But, I think he has more to offer than what we're seeing now, and I think he'll be even better here next season. I hope Gafford is better next year, too.

The Dinwiddie point is a good one, as is your point about circumstances.

[mvossman]

Washington is helping already probably because (to your point) there was a gaping DFS hole left on this team from the Kyrie trade and I suppose it makes sense that they have PJ trying to fill it. Thank goodness he was up to it! But, I think he has more to offer than what we're seeing now, and I think he'll be even better here next season. I hope Gafford is better next year, too.

If we can get the playoff version of PJ next season I will be ecstatic!

[KillerLeft]

If we can get the playoff version of PJ next season I will be ecstatic!

I think we should expect that he'll be more involved in the offense, not just a shooter. I think you're referring to the timely shooting, and I hope he can become more consistent with that, too, but I think (from watching him with Charlotte) that there's a lot of offensive skill being left on the bone with his current role. 

Think about how good he's looked on basically 100% of his post touches this post season (all 7-8 of them, lol). Need more of that. Also, imagine Washington being the outlet on those short roles when Luka/Kyrie get trapped, rather than Gafford/Lively! 

I have a very good feeling about PJ's fit here moving forward. VERY GOOD.

[Winter]

Jason from Hoops Tonight.

Playoff Prediction: Wolves - Mavs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0Ay0rHEaOc

[KillerLeft]

Jason from Hoops Tonight.

Playoff Prediction: Wolves - Mavs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0Ay0rHEaOc

Really great analysis, particularly the back third, where he details what to expect from each team regarding pick and roll coverages.

[fifteenth]

Jason from Hoops Tonight.

Playoff Prediction: Wolves - Mavs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0Ay0rHEaOc

That's one of those "people who actually talk basketball!"

[HoosierDaddyKid]

To add to your point: nobody is predicting the series to go less than 6 games. And for the Mavs to lose in 6 they would have to lose an elimination game at home - which I don‘t think is the most probable outcome, I would predict it goes to a game 7 then. And that’s where everything’s possible.

Nobody predicted that Denver would lose game 7 at home either. So, in the playoffs, anything can happen.

[BigDirk41]

I think Luka averages a 35 point triple double against Minnesota. He looked healthy to me in the last 2 games and moved well. When Luka can move well, nobody in the world can guard him. Dort couldn't even guard him the last 2 games and was getting called a lot more often for fouls.

[DallasMaverick]

I think Luka averages a 35 point triple double against Minnesota. He looked healthy to me in the last 2 games and moved well. When Luka can move well, nobody in the world can guard him. Dort couldn't even guard him the last 2 games and was getting called a lot more often for fouls.

The style of officiating will make a difference, also. And how each team and player adapt.

[myconsumerclub]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hutC02Veh38 Final 4:37 WILD ENDING Timberwolves vs Mavericks | January 7, 2023
This team beat MINN with Powell at center so with Lively and Gafford we are sitting nicely and should spank them. Did not even have Washington in this game also so three key pieces are there to add to the teams capabilities. I am starting to wonder what we might do with Boston now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9AERohvwuM the magic of this season displayed so all who need to can know what we get to enjoy here in Dallas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBA5xwX_1go Stephen A. & Chris Paul rave on Kyrie Irving's importance to the Mavericks ? | NBA Countdown

Game one in Min we need to show them who they are playing now. They are playing a better team than they played earlier in the season.