2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks- MAVS WIN 4-1!

[vfromlmf]

The more I look at the matchups the more I see in favor of Dallas. Dallas is the deeper team and they're playing strong defense with far more offensive versatility than Denver.

This has the feeling of Mavs Lakers 2011

Mavs in 5

[Winter]

This is the only game during the season that the Mavs won. It's also the only regular season game where Doncic and Irving both played (and Powell was the starting center).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf0Nv9B2CaI

[SleepingHero]

IF Luka is starting to feel better (big if) then McDaniels won’t be able to stand up to his size and strength. Edwards, however, has a chance to give him the Dort treatment, and I expect MIN to try that some. But, that will come at the expense of the Wolves’ best and only truly consistent offensive creator having less energy on offense.

When Minnesota doubles, they will be BIG doubles, and I imagine that makes life untenable for most ball-handlers, but Luka has the size to see over the top and get the ball out effectively (again, if he’s healthy enough).

If Dallas can force MIN into some switches, nobody on their roster outside of Edwards and McDaniels has any chance of bothering Luka in the slightest (once again, if he’s feeling good and playing well).

On the other end, I feel really good about DJJ, PJ, the Mavs’ team defense slowing down Edwards and especially KAT.

There are definitely ways this could play out other than what I’m describing above, but that’s how I HOPE it will go down.

Mavs in 6.

I don't really think MIN will take the chance of putting Edwards on Luka. If he's overly rambunctious (and he can be at times), him picking up 2 or 3 quick fouls can change an entire game.

Kyrie for whatever reason doesn't get the same calls (even if the contact is there). If anything I think the Mavs will invite an Edwards switch and let Luka work him in the post.

[SleepingHero]

This is the only game during the season that the Mavs won. It's also the only regular season game where Doncic and Irving both played (and Powell was the starting center).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf0Nv9B2CaI

Powell played 28 minutes.

THJ 31 minutes

Grant Williams played 20 minutes.

Seth Curry played 15 minutes

Mavs closing lineup was Luka/Kyrie/THJ/DJJ/Powell

[Chicagojk]

There will be so many keys to this series. Where I fall currently (and this may change) is can Dallas' PJ and Jones Jr stay in the ball park with McDaniels and Towns. Towns is the best player of the group, so I think this is why Minny should be favored. Can PJ and Jones make this not a easy, clear advantage for Minny. If they can, I think Dallas can match up pretty well elsewhere. They will need a good Luka and Kyrie series though.

I just think Towns brings a lot of problems to our team. If we can compete well there, I think we have a solid chance. In years past, I would say be physical and patient and wait for KAT to not come through. He has played well in these playoffs this year though.

[dirkfansince1998]

Compared to Jokic it should be more difficult to double Luka because he isn't getting the ball on the ellbow. But I also remember a few games against the 76ers (Simmons/Embiid) and Nuggets (Gordon/Jokic) were he really struggled with traps that involve two big defenders.
Wolves defense was super quick to get back into position after the double team and rarely messed up rotations in the Nuggets series. If they double Luka whoever gets the ball needs to make quick decisions and cannot be passive. Cannot reset the offense 2-3 times per possession because role players hesitated. That's what cost Denver the series.

[KillerLeft]

All good points. But you realize Luka and Kyrie have to guard them too. As well as DJJ and PJ. McDaniels, Reid, Anderson, and Kat are far bigger than the Clippers and Thunder front courts. It works both ways for either team.

Totally, and like others have said, this is a hard one to predict. 

Where I'm at today, right now:

I trust Luka/Kyrie more than I trust Edwards (at this stage) and especially KAT, who has been one of the most inconsistent guys in the postseason. 

AND, I'm sorry, win or lose (because this will be a damn hard series), I'm grateful the Mavs don't have to play Denver. It might be that they were never going to beat EITHER of them, but at least in this series the Mavs are the more experienced team.

[dirkfansince1998]

Powell played 28 minutes.

THJ 31 minutes

Grant Williams played 20 minutes.

Seth Curry played 15 minutes

Mavs closing lineup was Luka/Kyrie/THJ/DJJ/Powell

Minnesota matchups were easily Powell's best games of the season. And I think that was the main reason the Mavs won/nearly won the other game. He probably won't play in the series but the Mavs need similar or better production from Gafford/Lively to have a chance. Cannot get completly destroyed in the center matchup. Best case scenario is obviously what Powell did in the win against the T'Wolves. Draw fouls on Gobert and Towns and limit their time on the floor.

[KillerLeft]

I don't really think MIN will take the chance of putting Edwards on Luka. If he's overly rambunctious (and he can be at times), him picking up 2 or 3 quick fouls can change an entire game.

Kyrie for whatever reason doesn't get the same calls (even if the contact is there). If anything I think the Mavs will invite an Edwards switch and let Luka work him in the post.

I agree it will be something they'll try to avoid. A 7-game series is a lot of games, however. We have to believe the Mavs will find a way to make Minnesota's "plan A" ineffective, at some point, and that Minnesota will do the same to the Mavs' plan A, for that matter.

[DallasMaverick]

I don't really think MIN will take the chance of putting Edwards on Luka. If he's overly rambunctious (and he can be at times), him picking up 2 or 3 quick fouls can change an entire game.

Kyrie for whatever reason doesn't get the same calls (even if the contact is there). If anything I think the Mavs will invite an Edwards switch and let Luka work him in the post.

If Dallas’ strategy is to force Ant to switch onto Luka, i suspect that Minny’s counter will be to double and force the ball out of his hands.

Wondering what the chess match will look like as the series progresses.

[surfpuckmd]

At first blush, my initial big questions:

- Can the Mavs front court of Gafford, Lively and PJ hold their own on the boards against Gobert, KAT and Naz?
- Can the Mavs find enough offense from the grab bag of THJ, Green, Exum and Hardy to combat what the Wolves get from Conley and NAW?
- What pair of "others" plays better, DJJ and PJ or McDaniels and Naz?
- Will Kai find a way to be aggressive for 4 quarters and make Ant work now that he likely gets to guard Conley instead of having to battle SGA and Williams?
- Will we see the healthier looking version of Luka we saw in Games 5 and 6 for a full series?  McDaniels is an elite defender but won't beat Luka up physically the way Dort tried to.
- Do the Mavs have an answer for the KAT, Naz minutes without Maxi?  Will Maxi make it back this series and if so, can he be effective against those lineups?


The obvious questions that are there in every series remain as well:

- Who shoots the 3 better?
- Who rebounds better?
- Who takes care of the ball better?

I think you covered almost everything here.  

I bet Luka is relieved to not have Dort guarding him anymore.  McDaniels is great but he's skinny and won't be able to push Luka around.  

I think we can stop worrying about officiating bias as well.  The NBA has no love for the Timberwolves and Ant doesn't get the same calls as SGA.  

This will be fun to watch.  It's been a great season regardless of what happens in the 3rd round.

[SleepingHero]

If Dallas’ strategy is to force Ant to switch onto Luka, i suspect that Minny’s counter will be to double and force the ball out of his hands.

Wondering what the chess match will look like as the series progresses.

If they do that, who are they sending if Ant is posted up? McDaniels? Then I assume Kyrie will be open. 

If KAT/Gobert then put the Wolves into rotation and attack whoever Conley is guarding. 

Obviously this is all easier said than done. Wolves might be the best defensive team of the least 5 years easily. Mavs have their work cut out for them. 

Like dfan said, the key to this series is having our role players be as decisive and quick as possible off the trap. That is what punishes double teams.

[surfpuckmd]

Minnesota matchups were easily Powell's best games of the season. And I think that was the main reason the Mavs won/nearly won the other game. He probably won't play in the series but the Mavs need similar or better production from Gafford/Lively to have a chance. Cannot get completly destroyed in the center matchup. Best case scenario is obviously what Powell did in the win against the T'Wolves. Draw fouls on Gobert and Towns and limit their time on the floor.

I agree that we should start Dwight Powell if that's what you're suggesting.  

Seriously, I don't think this will be a good series for Daniel Gafford and I'm a huge Gafford supporter.  

I think Lively needs to start and I would consider playing Powell over Gafford if Gafford struggles to cover Naz and KAT from deep.

[Scott41theMavs]

I agree that we should start Dwight Powell if that's what your suggesting.  

Seriously, I don't think this will be a good series for Daniel Gafford and I'm a huge Gafford supporter.  

I think Lively needs to start and I would consider playing Powell over Gafford if Gafford struggles to cover Naz and KAT from deep.

Will Powell be this year's Peja?

[Winter]

I agree that we should start Dwight Powell if that's what your suggesting.  

Seriously, I don't think this will be a good series for Daniel Gafford and I'm a huge Gafford supporter.  

I think Lively needs to start and I would consider playing Powell over Gafford if Gafford struggles to cover Naz and KAT from deep.

I rather liked how we played Lively against OKC - keeping him in the game for nearly all of the 4-th quarter in most games. His ability to get offensive rebounds was a real difference-maker.

[Chicagojk]

Who would have thought Keyshawn would fitneifht in with the rest of the gas bags?

https://x.com/kristenisbored/status/1792606688962334955

Shannon sharpe things McGee could be the answer

https://x.com/txzambrano/status/17926252...42553?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

[dirkfansince1998]

Just cannot watch NBA media talking heads. Everyone and their mother picking Minnesota. Vegas favoring Minnesota. But if the Mavs lose the series Luka is a career loser that couldn't take his team to the finals.

[audiosway]

Totally, and like others have said, this is a hard one to predict. 

Where I'm at today, right now:

I trust Luka/Kyrie more than I trust Edwards (at this stage) and especially KAT, who has been one of the most inconsistent guys in the postseason. 

AND, I'm sorry, win or lose (because this will be a damn hard season), I'm grateful the Mavs don't have to play Denver. It might be that they were never going to beat EITHER of them, but at least in this series the Mavs are the more experienced team.

I'm with you. I did NOT want to face Denver. I think Jokic would have gotten Dallas' young bigs in foul trouble and eaten them alive from that point. Gobert/Reid is a horrible matchup for Jokic being more experienced defensive bigs. Denver also had no one that could guard ANT.

Dallas doesn't have a big for a PG so it changes the dynamic for Minny. And they don't want ANT lining up on Kyrie or Luka and getting in foul trouble or having him too tired on offense being that he is their main scorer. Also, KAT doesn't play well when he gets bullied. I think Gafford, Lively, and PJ will have him frustrated the whole series. He gets mentally flustered easy. And like you said he's inconsistent so far in the playoffs.

[SleepingHero]

Who would have thought Keyshawn would fitneifht in with the rest of the gas bags?

https://x.com/kristenisbored/status/1792606688962334955

Shannon sharpe things McGee could be the answer

https://x.com/txzambrano/status/17926252...42553?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

WHAT THE ACTUAL IS THIS DUDE SMOKING OH MY LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORD




I actually laughed so hard watching that. He made Skip Bayless look normal and cogent.

[SleepingHero]

https://x.com/grantafseth/status/1792622...47306?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w

Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth)
Maxi Kleber was on the treadmill during the viewing portion of today’s practice. Still unclear when he may return.

Kidd said: “Still out. Looked good today, though.”

He was asked a follow up, “On the treadmill?” Kidd replied “yes” with a laugh.