Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[dirkfansince1998]

Only six teams have enough projected capspace to absorb THJs salary. Pistons, 76ers, Jazz, OKC, Magic and Spurs. Won't be cheap to get out of his contract.

[RGP1981]

One point about DJJ - in the right setting, I think he can become more and more impactful and valuable. There's a sweet spot for a defensive player, where he does his thing on one end, and on the other doesn't have to force the offense, but can still get some shots and score, and has others who know how to set him up and utilize what he does. I think of a guy like Bruce Bowen in SA.

I do not think that there is a better situation for DJJ to be or become more impactful than playing next to Luka. Next to Kyrie too.

In case I am misunderstood, I'm not saying that the Mavericks should low-ball him because of it. Just saying that it probably doesn't get better for DJJ than playing next to Luka... because next to almost everybody else, his offensive shortcomings will be a lot more apparent.

[Jym]

Best case where matching money is coming back.  Dumping THJ easily gets us the full MLE but making a trade where we shave 5 mil off the cap does not get us to the full MLE.  Probably because we have to stay under the tax line in order to get the full MLE (and apparently we want a 1 mil window under it as well).

yeah Kyrie's incentives complicate things 
Helps out some if space needed under the apron to account for them is just $1 million and not the full $2 million 

I wonder how much it'd help if we do a trade where we get back 2 players for THJ
Waiving AJ probably doesn't help a ton unless we get a 2 rounder to fill that spot

[SleepingHero]

@TheDunkCentral
Clint Capela is a name to watch on the trade market, per
@TheSteinLine


“Capela, who turned 30 on Saturday, will have an expiring contract next season at $22.3 million after averaging 11.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots this season. The presence of Onyeka Okongwu and potential arrival of another big man through the draft, with Atlanta holding the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since 1975, is expected to make Capela available.”

[Scott41theMavs]

@TheDunkCentral
Clint Capela is a name to watch on the trade market, per
@TheSteinLine


“Capela, who turned 30 on Saturday, will have an expiring contract next season at $22.3 million after averaging 11.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots this season. The presence of Onyeka Okongwu and potential arrival of another big man through the draft, with Atlanta holding the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since 1975, is expected to make Capela available.”

Remember when we would have cared about that? Yawn.

[KillerLeft]

Remember when we would have cared about that? Yawn.

I'd take Capella over Gafford right now. He's still a top screen setter and one of the better defenders in the league when his team doesn't suck. I'm certainly happy the asking price was so high and that the Mavs opted for Lively, instead, but if/when Capella falls to "off the bench" level I'd be the first in line.

[F Gump]

HARD CAP MATH - To use the bigger MLE at all, you can't go over $179M Apron 1, no matter what, so a team has to leave a cushion. Let's pencil in a limit of $178M.

Without counting Lawson, the Mavs already have 12 players at $173.537M. That includes Kyrie's incentives, all of which count on Hard Cap Math. They have to have at least 14 players (and likely prefer 15). DJJ fills one of those empty slots. Hard cap math says each minimum salary will cost AT LEAST $2.094M this year (there are minor exceptions to that number, but Mavs are extremely unlikely to be able to do one like that.). So that leaves 2 empty slots (Lawson can fill one of those slots if you wish) and 2 minimum salary players will cost at least $4.188M.

That puts the Mavs right now at $177.724M. At that number, you can either spend the taxpayer MLE of $5.2M (and go past Apron 1 with no barrier), or spend NT MLE but you only have spending room under the Hard Cap of about $0.276M right now.

If you trade THJ (either alone, or in a package), and the other team needs to salary match to do the deal, the biggest spread allowed is $7.5M, which then offers room for an increased NT MLE of $7.776M.

If you SW THJ, there's the cost of the dead salary and the cost of refilling that salary slot, so you gain $8.702M and now have the ability to spend a NT MLE of about $9M.

To get a bigger NT MLE via a trade of THJ (or anyone else), you have to find a team with cap room who won't have to salary match, and who will use some of their cap room to take THJ.

Everything gets easier if DJJ would take the $5.2M TxMLE, because then there's no hard cap until you get up to Apron 2 (about $190M).

[SleepingHero]

@TheDunkCentral
Gordon Hayward admits he was frustrated with his role in OKC

“Disappointing with how it all kind of worked out. Certainly frustrating…I feel as a player, I have a lot to offer. Just wasn’t really given much of an opportunity to do that. I thought I would be given that opportunity.”

[Mavs2021]

HARD CAP MATH - To use the bigger MLE at all, you can't go over $179M Apron 1, no matter what, so a team has to leave a cushion. Let's pencil in a limit of $178M.

Without counting Lawson, the Mavs already have 12 players at $173.537M. That includes Kyrie's incentives, all of which count on Hard Cap Math. They have to have at least 14 players (and likely prefer 15). DJJ fills one of those empty slots. Hard cap math says each minimum salary will cost AT LEAST $2.094M this year (there are minor exceptions to that number, but Mavs are extremely unlikely to be able to do one like that.). So that leaves 2 empty slots (Lawson can fill one of those slots if you wish) and 2 minimum salary players will cost at least $4.188M.

That puts the Mavs right now at $177.724M. At that number, you can either spend the taxpayer MLE of $5.2M (and go past Apron 1 with no barrier), or spend NT MLE but you only have spending room under the Hard Cap of about $0.276M right now.

If you trade THJ (either alone, or in a package), and the other team needs to salary match to do the deal, the biggest spread allowed is $7.5M, which then offers room for an increased NT MLE of $7.776M.

If you SW THJ, there's the cost of the dead salary and the cost of refilling that salary slot, so you gain $8.702M and now have the ability to spend a NT MLE of about $9M.

To get a bigger NT MLE via a trade of THJ (or anyone else), you have to find a team with cap room who won't have to salary match, and who will use some of their cap room to take THJ.

Everything gets easier if DJJ would take the $5.2M TxMLE, because then there's no hard cap until you get up to Apron 2 (about $190M).

We have the 56th pick. Spotrac says the minimum salary with no experience is $1.16M. 

Wouldn´t that be the 2nd round pick salary? 
Can you still trade $6m in cash?
How about Dwight Powell* + two 2028 2nd round picks + cash for the Pistons TPE + 2025 2nd round pick.

That should take us to $173M for 12 players including Lawson + two 2nd round picks. 

$178.6M is the projected apron. So we are $5.6M below it. 

So a reasonable THJ trade could get us to $10M-12M?

Shamet has an $11M non guaranteed contract for next season.
Bertans has an $16M ($5M guaranteed) for next season.
Schroeder has a $13M guaranteed contract for next two season.
Thybulle has a $11M guaranteed contract for next two season.

How much that costs us is a good guess. Maybe stretch-waiving THJ is the easier solution.

That should get us to at least $10M as a starting salary for DJJ. I think he would accept something like 44/4 to stay. Unless of course some dumba** tanking team Bruce Browns him.

Doncic/Hardy/Exum
Irving/Green/Lawson
DJJ/Thybulle/2nd round pick
Washington/Kleber/Omax
Gafford/Lively/2nd round pick

I definitely think it´s doable and I´m sure Nico/Lindsay have people working on this right now.

Then you seriously know more about this stuff, so maybe I´m completely off somewhere in my math/legality.

*Maybe this is where we find out who is truly in charge. I´d hope the new bosses don´t have an unhealthy attachment to towel-waiver Dwight Powell.

[Mavs32]

could you offer THJ and a second to Detroit for Fournier and then just decline Fourniers deal next year? that would clear all of THJ's deal and then could you offer 4/45 to DJJ?

[HoosierDaddyKid]

@TheDunkCentral
Gordon Hayward admits he was frustrated with his role in OKC

“Disappointing with how it all kind of worked out. Certainly frustrating…I feel as a player, I have a lot to offer. Just wasn’t really given much of an opportunity to do that. I thought I would be given that opportunity.”

Yeah. I was shocked by how little he played in the playoffs. This was the 1st move I've seen by Presti that didn't work out. He gave up 3 players and 2 2nd rounders to acquire him to sit on the bench.

[DallasMaverick]

Yeah. I was shocked by how little he played in the playoffs. This was the 1st move I've seen by Presti that didn't work out. He gave up 3 players and 2 2nd rounders to acquire him to sit on the bench.

Maybe he is really truly washed up at this point, but his ego won’t let him let go. I think of Carmelo at the end of his career.

[Smitty]

The simplest way to clear money for DJJ is trading THJ as people have pointed out. Connecting reports from the past 18 months, specifically last TDL. A trade of THJ for Grimes makes a lot of sense. DET is a cap space team and has been linked to Tim. Mavs had interest in Grimes. He’ll be extension eligible and due a raise 25-26 season on, but fits the roster age timeline and plays defense. Can shoot the 3.

Turned 24 years old last week. Career 37% 3PT shooter on 5 attempts per game. Vs Tim who’s 32 years old and a career 36% 3PT shooter on 6 attempts per game.

DEFRTG
23-24 Grimes 109.1 | THJ 115.8
22-23 Grimes 114.2 | THJ 114.5
21-22 Grimes 105.0 | THJ 107.7

[mvossman]

The simplest way to clear money for DJJ is trading THJ as people have pointed out. Connecting reports from the past 18 months, specifically last TDL. A trade of THJ for Grimes makes a lot of sense. DET is a cap space team and has been linked to Tim. Mavs had interest in Grimes. He’ll be extension eligible and due a raise 25-26 season on, but fits the roster age timeline and plays defense. Can shoot the 3.

Turned 24 years old last week. Career 37% 3PT shooter on 5 attempts per game. Vs Tim who’s 32 years old and a career 36% 3PT shooter on 6 attempts per game.

DEFRTG
23-24 Grimes 109.1 | THJ 115.8
22-23 Grimes 114.2 | THJ 114.5
21-22 Grimes 105.0 | THJ 107.7

I wouldn't use DFFRTG to compare players on different teams, but Grimes is clearly a much better defender than Timmy.  He is also a distressed asset as he had a really down year.  I like this idea a lot.  I would throw in a couple of seconds and maybe even Hardy.  Another thought would be Grimes for Green straight up.  I think that would generate enough room for DJJ and Grimes is a better defender than Green and more willing shooter.

[Smitty]

I wouldn't use DFFRTG to compare players on different teams, but Grimes is clearly a much better defender than Timmy.  He is also a distressed asset as he had a really down year.  I like this idea a lot.  I would throw in a couple of seconds and maybe even Hardy.  Another thought would be Grimes for Green straight up.  I think that would generate enough room for DJJ and Grimes is a better defender than Green and more willing shooter.

Yeah it will "cost" something from the Mavs. My thought was the '25 SRP (TOR) which will likely be a high pick. Hardy is another option I'd be willing to send. Green I would not.

[F Gump]

We have the 56th pick. Spotrac says the minimum salary with no experience is $1.16M. 

Wouldn´t that be the 2nd round pick salary? 
Can you still trade $6m in cash?
How about Dwight Powell* + two 2028 2nd round picks + cash for the Pistons TPE + 2025 2nd round pick.

That should take us to $173M for 12 players including Lawson + two 2nd round picks. 

$178.6M is the projected apron. So we are $5.6M below it. 

So a reasonable THJ trade could get us to $10M-12M?

Shamet has an $11M non guaranteed contract for next season.
Bertans has an $16M ($5M guaranteed) for next season.
Schroeder has a $13M guaranteed contract for next two season.
Thybulle has a $11M guaranteed contract for next two season.

How much that costs us is a good guess. Maybe stretch-waiving THJ is the easier solution.

That should get us to at least $10M as a starting salary for DJJ. I think he would accept something like 44/4 to stay. Unless of course some dumba** tanking team Bruce Browns him.

Doncic/Hardy/Exum
Irving/Green/Lawson
DJJ/Thybulle/2nd round pick
Washington/Kleber/Omax
Gafford/Lively/2nd round pick

I definitely think it´s doable and I´m sure Nico/Lindsay have people working on this right now.

Then you seriously know more about this stuff, so maybe I´m completely off somewhere in my math/legality.

*Maybe this is where we find out who is truly in charge. I´d hope the new bosses don´t have an unhealthy attachment to towel-waiver Dwight Powell.

For easy math, just figure they are at the hard cap limit (allowing for a reasonable cushion) as they sit, with one empty roster slot. That's really close to the situation.

1 Pick 56 is no answer.The odds of pick 56 (in a crappy draft) being good enough to make the roster is less than a million-to-one imo. No point in wasting payroll on a useless player.
2 They won't waste the few assets they have on giving away smaller salary players like Powell, which gains very little, because you then have to refill the salary slot with a 2.1M player they don't have minutes for. 
3 You can't trade THJ for a player whose contract isn't guaranteed because it's not a salary match. Only guaranteed salary counts.

From where they are, they have to increase their situation by the same dollars as they will pay DJJ. THJ matching trade only offers 7.5M or less. All the options you suggest yield a result that's less money for DJJ than just using the TxMLE of 5.2M.

[F Gump]

could you offer THJ and a second to Detroit for Fournier and then just decline Fourniers deal next year?  that would clear all of THJ's deal and then could you offer 4/45 to DJJ?

No. Not a legal trade.

[F Gump]

The simplest way to clear money for DJJ is trading THJ as people have pointed out. Connecting reports from the past 18 months, specifically last TDL. A trade of THJ for Grimes makes a lot of sense. DET is a cap space team and has been linked to Tim. Mavs had interest in Grimes. He’ll be extension eligible and due a raise 25-26 season on, but fits the roster age timeline and plays defense. Can shoot the 3.

Turned 24 years old last week. Career 37% 3PT shooter on 5 attempts per game. Vs Tim who’s 32 years old and a career 36% 3PT shooter on 6 attempts per game.

DEFRTG
23-24 Grimes 109.1 | THJ 115.8
22-23 Grimes 114.2 | THJ 114.5
21-22 Grimes 105.0 | THJ 107.7

IMO DET would have no interest.

[mvossman]

Yeah it will "cost" something from the Mavs. My thought was the '25 SRP (TOR) which will likely be a high pick. Hardy is another option I'd be willing to send. Green I would not.

That pick might be enough to get off THJ contract (the primary goal) but I doubt its enough to get Grimes.  We will have to add some real asset to it.  Hardy is probably not enough either.  Green might be.

[mvossman]

I think somebody already posted this, but here is a good article on how to retain DJJ:

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2024/5/20/...k-jones-jr

The interesting point in this is that we can negotiate with him before anyone else. If we manage to make a draft day trade that opens up salary close to the MLE, we can agree to a contract with him before he can talk to anyone else. That would be ideal.