Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[SleepingHero]

Thybulle almost fits the 9-10M price range (11.025).

But THJ-for-____ in that 9-10M price range was never a guarantee of "any" competitive contract.

The fact is that ANY single trade with matching both ways will not open up huge money for DJJ, because the absolute biggest trade differential is $7.5M, and with the Mavs staring at being about $3M over the apron as is, plus needing some cushion (1M?) under the hard cap, that perfect 7.5M spread only adds maybe 3.5M, which means you're only bumping an offer to DJJ to a number under 9M.

THJ for MT at 11.025M is only a 5M spread, and almost all of that goes to cover the overage plus the cushion. It probably bumps the possible MLE up to about $6.25M.

Ah just like that my Thybulle dreams are crushed...


To be fair, are we really expecting DJJ to be offered anywhere north of 9 mil a year? Don't get me wrong he's playing out of his mind right now on the biggest stage, but how many teams could DJJ play for and be this effective?

Who knows? He's said he wants to be back in the athletic article. I can't see a team offering more than the MLE at the absolute most in today's restricted NBA.

[SleepingHero]

I´m confused. Simons argument aside.

Thybulle has played 17 MPG over 25 career play-offs games. His career averages are 4/1/1/1/1. What exactly does Thybulle do, that Exum can´t? Has anyone watched these last 11 play-off games and thought: We need better defense? Does anyone worry about our defense tonight? No you worry where the offensive support will come from.

Box score watching one of the most impactful perimeter defenders in the league is a pretty big mistake and might add to your confusion. He's the only guard since Jordan to average over 2 blocks a game adjusted for possessions more than once. Top 5 in steals per game for the league in 3 out of 5 years for his career (top 20 in his rookie year. tied for 21st last year where he got no minutes). All defensive twice in 5 years. 

His issue has always been his 3pt shot and scoring generally, but he's a highly athletic 6'5 forward with a streaky shot. Sound familiar? 

Contract wise, getability, and just general playstyle, Thybulle checks A LOT of boxes. And you should watch him sometime! Watching him lockdown players is very entertaining.

[Mavs2021]

Box score watching one of the most impactful perimeter defenders in the league is a pretty big mistake and might add to your confusion. He's the only guard since Jordan to average over 2 blocks a game adjusted for possessions more than once. Top 5 in steals per game for the league in 3 out of 5 years for his career (top 20 in his rookie year. tied for 21st last year where he got no minutes). All defensive twice in 5 years. 

His issue has always been his 3pt shot and scoring generally, but he's a highly athletic 6'5 forward with a streaky shot. Sound familiar? 

Contract wise, getability, and just general playstyle, Thybulle checks A LOT of boxes. And you should watch him sometime! Watching him lockdown players is very entertaining.

 Well he must have forgotten to lock them down in the play-offs, cause his on/off

defensive /offensive / overall

2022: -8.7 / -6.7 / -15.4
2021: -0.3 / -17.6 / -17.9
2020: -7.8 / -15.3 / - 23.1

The guy is one of the worst play-off performers in the league. Sometimes 4/1/1/1/1 is just that. He´s averaging 1.3 RPG in 17 MPG for his play-off career.

[F Gump]

To be fair, are we really expecting DJJ to be offered anywhere north of 9 mil a year? Don't get me wrong he's playing out of his mind right now on the biggest stage, but how many teams could DJJ play for and be this effective?

Who knows? He's said he wants to be back in the athletic article. I can't see a team offering more than the MLE at the absolute most in today's restricted NBA.

I truly have no clue how much it will take to keep DJJ. His expectation is the key.

What I know (and both Mavs and DJJ know as well) is that the Mavs can certainly offer the following --
TxP MLE (5.2M) on a 1+1, which also gives him a full no trade
in 2025 offer up to NT MLE (maybe 13.5M or so?), perhaps another 1+1 and he again has full no-trade control
in 2026 he has full bird rights, to land at whatever is the right number for him to continue to complement Luka-Kyrie.

Would he do that? He's a great fit here.

On the other end, there's no scenario in which they can offer more than NT MLE of 12.9M this summer.

Also, getting the ability to do even increase the 5.2M this summer some of the way is possible, but uncertain, and most moves might not get the amount raised real far.

To get to the big MLE will be hard. To get part of the way will be more practical (like to the 8-9M area) but also perhaps costly).

On the flip side, he can very easily end up a player who gets paid so much that he's expected to do more than he can, and his team can't wait to get rid of him. He's been there before, and knows how that works.

So I suspect that if he really wants to be here, they have to work together on this - ie a cooperative venture to make sure he's okay and willing to sign the end result. Then the Mavs figure out how to do that.

[F Gump]

One point about DJJ - in the right setting, I think he can become more and more impactful and valuable. There's a sweet spot for a defensive player, where he does his thing on one end, and on the other doesn't have to force the offense, but can still get some shots and score, and has others who know how to set him up and utilize what he does. I think of a guy like Bruce Bowen in SA.

[Scott41theMavs]

I truly have no clue how much it will take to keep DJJ. His expectation is the key.

What I know (and both Mavs and DJJ know as well) is that the Mavs can certainly offer the following --
TxP MLE (5.2M) on a 1+1, which also gives him a full no trade
in 2025 offer up to NT MLE (maybe 13.5M or so?), perhaps another 1+1 and he again has full no-trade control
in 2026 he has full bird rights, to land at whatever is the right number for him to continue to complement Luka-Kyrie.

Would he do that? He's a great fit here.

On the other end, there's no scenario in which they can offer more than NT MLE of 12.9M this summer.

Also, getting the ability to do even increase the 5.2M this summer some of the way is possible, but uncertain, and most moves might not get the amount raised real far.

To get to the big MLE will be hard. To get part of the way will be more practical (like to the 8-9M area) but also perhaps costly).

On the flip side, he can very easily end up a player who gets paid so much that he's expected to do more than he can, and his team can't wait to get rid of him. He's been there before, and knows how that works.

So I suspect that if he really wants to be here, they have to work together on this - ie a cooperative venture to make sure he's okay and willing to sign the end result. Then the Mavs figure out how to do that.

In this playoff run, just four Mavericks average more than 30 mpg. Luka and Kyrie average over 40 - duh. The other two who average more than 30 are PJ, and DJJ.

I would simply say that Nico's orders for the offseason are to hold onto DJJ at all costs. By any means necessary. And of course my orders as a Mavs fan to the owners prior to that are, hold onto Lindsay at all costs. By any means necessary.

[Mavs2021]

1. DJJ will not command more than the MLE.
2. Given his career earnings he cannot accept any deals that are less than 24/3 either. 
3. In his position his total matters more than his annual salary!
4. Whether such a trade is easily accomplished largely depends on the possibly heightened value of (semi) expiring contracts under the new CBA.
5. For example Bertans for THJ+Powell creates 15M in capspace after Bertans is waived. Question is how much do you have to pay for that: a couple 2nds, Hardy, O-Max, a protected 1st, an unprotected 1st?
6. Simons for THJ + Green + Powell opens an additional $6.9M, which might get you in range of DJJ 24/3. The good thing is that you can work with DJJ on these things before any trade.

My guess is that they´d like to keep most of the team together, but a deal involving Green might be easier to pull off. So this might partially come down to how much they value DJJ vs. Green.

[DallasMaverick]

1. DJJ will not command more than the MLE.
2. Given his career earnings he cannot accept any deals that are less than 24/3 either. 
3. In his position his total matters more than his annual salary!
4. Whether such a trade is easily accomplished largely depends on the possibly heightened value of (semi) expiring contracts under the new CBA.
5. For example Bertans for THJ+Powell creates 15M in capspace after Bertans is waived. Question is how much do you have to pay for that: a couple 2nds, Hardy, O-Max, a protected 1st, an unprotected 1st?
6. Simons for THJ + Green + Powell opens an additional $6.9M, which might get you in range of DJJ 24/3. The good thing is that you can work with DJJ on these things before any trade.

My guess is that they´d like to keep most of the team together, but a deal involving Green might be easier to pull off. So this might partially come down to how much they value DJJ vs. Green.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/...k-jones-jr

Here’s all his career salaries. Had one two-year period where he made $9.5m/yr. Everything else has been less than $3.3m/yr.

Would he take $5.3m for a one-year deal, knowing he could opt out of year two, and sign for more??

After bouncing around for awhile, I’d think that being in a place where he’s productive and appreciated would count for a lot. He doesn’t strike me as a guy with a big ego. Not Latrell Sprewell.

[BigDirk41]

I think DJJ will absolutely want to stay, but it may take 4/40 to 4/50 to keep him, but I think they have to do it. Him and PJ are so versatile and important to the defense and they are even knocking down 3s now. We need to create the space somehow to keep him. He seems to have some of the clutch gene in him too. You can't teach that.

[Scott41theMavs]

He doesn’t strike me as a guy with a big ego. Not Latrell Sprewell.

Ego? Don't you realize Latrell had a family to feed?

[Scott41theMavs]

I think DJJ will absolutely want to stay, but it may take 4/40 to 4/50 to keep him, but I think they have to do it. Him and PJ are so versatile and important to the defense and they are even knocking down 3s now. We need to create the space somehow to keep him. He seems to have some of the clutch gene in him too. You can't teach that.

Nowhere near possible for the Mavs under the CBA, which is the real topic of conversation here.

[mvossman]

Nowhere near possible for the Mavs under the CBA, which is the real topic of conversation here.

This is not true.  That is less than the full MLE.  We have multiple ways to dump salary to make room.  Pay a reasonably small asset to send out Timmy's expiring contract would make the most sense.  If it takes that much to keep him it is within the CBA to do so.

[Jym]

Going to take some maneuvering but we're not THAT far from making the numbers work right? Is there something I'm missing? I don't get why people act like we have to dump THJ fully into space.

If we pick up Exum's 3 mil, then we'll have 12 players under contract at 171 mil

Tax line will be 172 mil and that first apron will be at 179 mil

Need to figure out a good way for us to have 13 players under contract with a payroll around $168 mil to $171 mil

[mvossman]

THJ, Powell, Hardy, 25' first

For 

Anthony Simons

I don't think there is any chance that gets it done.  He will likely cost significantly more than that.  I am also skeptical he would be very happy to come off the bench after he has started and played 35 minutes a game the last couple of years.  He is also legit bad on defense.  His first couple of years in Portland they were at least competitive, and he was still terrible.  I don't really think he should be our target for a Kyrie replacement, and therefor don't think he is worth the assets it will take to get him.

[Jym]

Going to take some maneuvering but we're not THAT far from making the numbers work right? Is there something I'm missing? I don't get why people act like we have to dump THJ fully into space. 

If we pick up Exum's 3 mil, then we'll have 12 players under contract at 171 mil

Tax line will be 172 mil and that first apron will be at 179 mil

Need to figure out a good way for us to have 13 players under contract with a payroll around $168 mil to $171 mil

What's stopping us from sending out Timmy's $16.2 mil and getting back 2 players who make around $11 mil combined?
That would let us give DJJ up to the full mle and give us space to maybe do a 15th guy if he takes less


Edit
I forgot about AJ Lawson.
On the books for 2.1 mil next season but his contract isn't guaranteed

Edit #2
I also was not considering Kyrie's $2 million potential bonuses. Looks that would cut into the apron room also

[mvossman]

What's stopping us from sending out Timmy's $16.2 mil and getting back 2 players who make around $11 mil combined?
That would let us give DJJ up to the full mle and give us space to maybe do a 15th guy if he takes less


Edit
I forgot about AJ Lawson.
On the books for 2.1 mil next season but his contract isn't guaranteed

I think Gump did the math and a best case Timmy trade only gets us to about 8 mil.  He could probably show the details.  He is rarely wrong on this kind of stuff.

[KillerLeft]

What's stopping us from sending out Timmy's $16.2 mil and getting back 2 players who make around $11 mil combined?
That would let us give DJJ up to the full mle and give us space to maybe do a 15th guy if he takes less


Edit
I forgot about AJ Lawson.
On the books for 2.1 mil next season but his contract isn't guaranteed

Easy in theory, because I assume what you mean by “what’s stopping us“ is that you are willing to take back a very low level of player to accomplish the financial goal. That kind of thing has been fairly easy in the past.

The issue now is that many, many teams will hit the off-season with the same goal of reducing payroll in order to accomplish what they are trying to accomplish without incurring excessive cap penalties. So, many of the would-be trade partners will also be insisting that THEY take back less salary than they send out. There are teams with cap space and not all of them will find free agents on which they are willing to spend it, but the teams who are in position to absorb someone like Hardaway as a favor for the Mavericks, even in just in a lopsided, still sending some money out kind of deal, will expect value for doing so. 

The reality is none of us really know what to expect over the next couple of summers, including most of the dudes who work in these front offices.

I will be satisfied with the off-season if the Mavericks are able to maneuver enough to retain DJJ and MAYBE add one minimum who can hopefully contribute, similar to Exum/DJJ last summer. I feel like we have arrived at a place where that amount of work constitutes a successful off-season. Anything past that is gravy, and it might be more difficult to accomplish those things then we understand sitting here now.

[Jym]

I think Gump did the math and a best case Timmy trade only gets us to about 8 mil.  He could probably show the details.  He is rarely wrong on this kind of stuff.

Best case here would be completely dumping THJ? 
Maybe he was wanting to stay completely under the tax to avoid repeater tax stuff

[Jym]

Easy in theory, because I assume what you mean by “what’s stopping us“ is that you are willing to take back a very low level of player to accomplish the financial goal. That kind of thing has been fairly easy in the past.

The issue now is that many, many teams will hit the off-season with the same goal of reducing payroll in order to accomplish what they are trying to accomplish without incurring excessive cap penalties. So, many of the would-be trade partners will also be insisting that THEY take back less salary than they send out. There are teams with cap space and not all of them will find free agents on which they are willing to spend it, but the teams who are in position to absorb someone like Hardaway as a favor for the Mavericks, even in just in a lopsided, still sending some money out kind of deal, will expect value for doing so. 

The reality is none of us really know what to expect over the next couple of summers, including most of the dudes who work in these front offices.

I will be satisfied with the off-season if the Mavericks are able to maneuver enough to retain DJJ and MAYBE add one minimum who can hopefully contribute, similar to Exum/DJJ last summer. I feel like we have arrived at a place where that amount of work constitutes a successful off-season. Anything past that is gravy, and it might be more difficult to accomplish those things then we understand sitting here now.

Yeah wouldn't be anyone great. Some combo of unplayable and a long term contract unless we wanted to use more assets

[mvossman]

Best case here would be completely dumping THJ? 
Maybe he was wanting to stay completely under the tax to avoid repeater tax stuff

Best case where matching money is coming back.  Dumping THJ easily gets us the full MLE but making a trade where we shave 5 mil off the cap does not get us to the full MLE.  Probably because we have to stay under the tax line in order to get the full MLE (and apparently we want a 1 mil window under it as well).