Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[SleepingHero]

John Gambadoro (@Gambo987)
Suns GM James Jones tells @BurnsAndGambo that there is no scenario in which Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal would be traded this offseason.

[Mavs2021]

I'm actually pretty confused where this love for Anfernee Simons has come from. He's a small guard at 6'3. Defensively has always been one of the worst guards in the league. As the main guy on Portland this year he was one of the most inefficient volume scorers in the league.

Seems pretty accurate.

His TS numbers are virtually identical to guys like Maxey or Fox. You trade THJ + Powell + unprotected 1st for Maxey? You still haven´t learned your lesson about good players on bad teams. Guess Gafford and Washington was not enough. Do it again, Al Bundy.

What in the world do we need Tybulle for? We are already a top 5 defense in the league, arguably #1. We are also by far the worst FT shooting team in the league. Simmons hit 91.6% last season. He´s also made the 6th most threes per game at 38.5%. I really don´t see what is not to like.

[SleepingHero]

Seems pretty accurate.

His TS numbers are virtually identical to guys like Maxey or Fox. You trade THJ + Powell + unprotected 1st for Maxey? You still haven´t learned your lesson about good players on bad teams. Guess Gafford and Washington was not enough. Do it again, Al Bundy.

What in the world do we need Tybulle for? We are already a top 5 defense in the league, arguably #1. We are also by far the worst FT shooting team in the league. Simmons hit 91.6% last season. He´s also made the 6th most threes per game at 38.5%. I really don´t see what is not to like.

Simons TS% is propped up by his fantastic ability to knock down FTs. The league average TS% last year was 58%, Simons was below that (56.8). He's closer to D'Angelo Russell than Maxey or Fox. The latter two were both a step above offensively in both efficiency and volume. 

His defense is the main reason I don't like Simons. If he can't guard then he can't play in Kidds defensive scheme. We've seen as much with THJ basically being ousted out of the rotation since the trades (on top of horrible shooting). His size makes it incredible difficult to play him with Kyrie at any given moment which is kind of a big reason why we should stay away. 

His contract is 25.8 next year. I don't see how the Mavs can trade for him in a way that makes sense while still being able to offer DJJ a competitive contract. THJ+Powell cannot be done as a legal trade. THJ+Green still isn't enough (3mil savings). We'd have to add either Hardy or Powell and at that point we're trading 3 players AND picks for Anfernee Simons which is loony.

[RGP1981]

Trying to sign Anfernee Simons seems kind of daft to me... why? Because Kyrie-Anfernee-Luka cannot play together and win playoff games.

Anfernee is a direct Kyrie replacement, so to speak, off the bench.

- Kyrie/Anfernee, DJJ, Luka, PJW, Lively/Gafford.

For the Mavs to spend $66M on players in the same position (Kyrie is $40M, Anfernee is $26M), who cannot play together (unless Luka is injured)... that seems like really bad roster construction.

I think Collin Sexton @ $14m would be more suitable for this... i.e., to purely replace Kyrie, and not play as Kyrie-Sexton-Luka... because Sexton's salary is $14M and not $26m.

PS: I don't really want Sexton... but he makes a lot more sense than Anfernee, is all I'm saying.

[F Gump]

The only guard I'm interested on Portland is Thybulle. He fits the idea of THJ for "someone making 9-10mil"  so we can offer DJJ any competitive contract this summer.

Thybulle almost fits the 9-10M price range (11.025).

But THJ-for-____ in that 9-10M price range was never a guarantee of "any" competitive contract.

The fact is that ANY single trade with matching both ways will not open up huge money for DJJ, because the absolute biggest trade differential is $7.5M, and with the Mavs staring at being about $3M over the apron as is, plus needing some cushion (1M?) under the hard cap, that perfect 7.5M spread only adds maybe 3.5M, which means you're only bumping an offer to DJJ to a number under 9M.

THJ for MT at 11.025M is only a 5M spread, and almost all of that goes to cover the overage plus the cushion. It probably bumps the possible MLE up to about $6.25M.

[Luka77]

I'm actually pretty confused where this love for Anfernee Simons has come from. He's a small guard at 6'3. Defensively has always been one of the worst guards in the league. As the main guy on Portland this year he was one of the most inefficient volume scorers in the league.

I also severely doubt he'd be happy to come to Dallas to resume a 6th man role when he had to deal with that the first 4 years of his career behind McCollum and Lillard.

We also wouldn't really be able to play Simons next to Luka and Kyrie at the same time, mostly due to defensive issues. And that's before even bringing up his contract. Simons as an idea is DOA.

The only guard I'm interested on Portland is Thybulle. He fits the idea of THJ for "someone making 9-10mil"  so we can offer DJJ any competitive contract this summer. He's also one of the best defensive guards in the league that won't cost an arm and a leg.

I like the Isaiah Joe idea, but I really doubt the Thunder are going to let him go for peanuts. Especially when he's uber cheap next year.

I don't blame Simons for being a bit inefficient in a losing situation much like I don't blame PJW of playing little to no defense in CHO.  Someone on that team had to take shots. I mean I think it's telling that Ayton of all people became a primary option on that offense.

Also, The Mavs often play stretches of basketball with only Luka or Kyrie on the court.  Having Simons on the court assures you have at least two scores on the court at all times.  I think that's valuable esp. during playoff basketball.

Simons would essentially take over Harways role and minutes.  Think about it like Mavs with Jason Terry.  Sure he may have to talked into that role but I don't see him being opposed to it bc he already has a nice contract.

Moreover if the Mavs can play Brunson, Luka, and Dinwiddie on the floor at the same time and reach a WCF, Iam pretty sure they can play Kyrie, Simons and Luka on the floor for stretches when behind in a game and offense is needed.

Thybulle and Josh are redundant and play the same role. I doubt the Mavs need both on this team

[KillerLeft]

Dinwiddie is an interesting idea. He could be a bargain at the minimum. Is somebody gonna throw money at him? Or is he perhaps a bandwagoneer rest of his career? If the latter, seems like potentially a nice addition.

I'd take Dinwiddie back, but it would have to be the minimum, at this point. Like with DFS (whom I will always love), the team has moved on significantly since their time here. I don't know that I can reconcile myself with overpriced veterans (south of a certain quality) getting in the way of the young guys, and I hope the Mavs don't get so enamored by being "close" that they do anything foolish. 

Vets on value contracts, for leadership and insurance, you betcha.

[Mavs2021]

I´m confused. Simons argument aside.

Thybulle has played 17 MPG over 25 career play-offs games. His career averages are 4/1/1/1/1. What exactly does Thybulle do, that Exum can´t? Has anyone watched these last 11 play-off games and thought: We need better defense? Does anyone worry about our defense tonight? No you worry where the offensive support will come from.

[KillerLeft]

I´m confused. Simons argument aside.

Thybulle has played 17 MPG over 25 career play-offs games. His career averages are 4/1/1/1/1. What exactly does Thybulle do, that Exum can´t? Has anyone watched these last 11 play-off games and thought: We need better defense? Does anyone worry about our defense tonight? No you worry where the offensive support will come from.

Plus, Thybulle sucks. So there’s that, too.

[Luka77]

I´m confused. Simons argument aside.

Thybulle has played 17 MPG over 25 career play-offs games. His career averages are 4/1/1/1/1. What exactly does Thybulle do, that Exum can´t? Has anyone watched these last 11 play-off games and thought: We need better defense? Does anyone worry about our defense tonight? No you worry where the offensive support will come from.

I'm confused by this as well.  Why does everyone think more defense is need and the Mavs can ignore the other side of the floor.  The Mavs offense has been putrid this post season.   

NBA defenses have figured out that you have more success when you double Kyrie and Luka every possession and let the other players try to beat you.

[HAguiar95]

I'm wondering where the assets to get such expensive players (both in terms of trade price and contract) are coming from. Certainly not from anything the Mavs have available to trade. The teams possessing such players most certainly aren't getting Luka, Kyrie, PJ, or Lively back (our goal isn't to make our team worse or more ill-fitting), and the rest of what we have to offer won't get you McCollum, Herro, Brogdon, or comparable players.

Are you telling me they have higher value then THJ/Green/1st? I can see maybe Herro, but the other two should be gettable for this package (maybe add 2nds).

Im not including O-max/Hardy. Gafford could be available for the right piece (i want way more of lively).

[Scott41theMavs]

Trying to sign Anfernee Simons seems kind of daft to me... why? Because Kyrie-Anfernee-Luka cannot play together and win playoff games.

Anfernee is a direct Kyrie replacement, so to speak, off the bench.

- Kyrie/Anfernee, DJJ, Luka, PJW, Lively/Gafford.

For the Mavs to spend $66M on players in the same position (Kyrie is $40M, Anfernee is $26M), who cannot play together (unless Luka is injured)... that seems like really bad roster construction.

I think Collin Sexton @ $14m would be more suitable for this... i.e., to purely replace Kyrie, and not play as Kyrie-Sexton-Luka... because Sexton's salary is $14M and not $26m. Right person, at the right time, and the right salary.

PS: I don't really want Sexton... but he makes a heck of a lot more sense than Anfernee, is all I'm saying.

I will say it again for anyone who missed it - Luka + Kyrie is the Mavs for the next two seasons, i.e. until the summer of 2026. Luka paired with Kyrie, plus the stuff we group around them, is the Dallas Mavericks for that time span, and it's a winning combination. It's the winning combination.  Anyone trying to jettison Kyrie for any reason prior to that isn't much of a Mavs fan, and isn't much of a Luka fan. TBQH.

[Scott41theMavs]

Are you telling me they have higher value then THJ/Green/1st? I can see maybe Herro, but the other two should be gettable for this package (maybe add 2nds).

Im not including O-max/Hardy. Gafford could be available for the right piece (i want way more of lively).

OK, my post was a little muddled. It's not just the cost in trade for those guys. It's a ton of other factors as well: 1) in the new CBA era, and with Luka soon to be the highest paid player in league history, you cannot let guys like those three stooges take up as much of your cap as they do on their current contracts. At all. Moreover, as we have seen with THJ, when you have guys who are paid like that we aren't expiring, you feel an obligation to give them minutes. If they hurt your defense and otherwise make your team worse, then no, you don't want someone like that on your team. 

I will address the wider issue in responding to another argument going on here in the thread.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm confused by this as well.  Why does everyone think more defense is need and the Mavs can ignore the other side of the floor.  The Mavs offense has been putrid this post season.   

NBA defenses have figured out that you have more success when you double Kyrie and Luka every possession and let the other players try to beat you.

The solution to the offensive problem is not to go get someone who is 1) inefficient, 2) not great at team play, and especially 3) a problem for their own team on defense. Hell, if that's the goal, just re-sign THJ at a ridiculous rate.

I'm not sure I understand this trend right now of having created nearly the perfect defensive team around Luka and Kyrie and wanting to torpedo that. Landlord and Lively manning the middle. PJail. DJJ. Exum and/or Green to help with defensive effort (if not results) off the bench. Maxi when healthy. With those guys next to them, Luka and Kyrie are playing the best defense of their lives, because they have those other guys to shore them up as they sell out their defensive approaches. When THJ plays, it hurts the team right now. When Hardy plays, it hurts the team right now. 

Should the Mavs work on getting one or two strong offensive players this summer? Sure! But guys who are below average or worse on defense are unwelcome in the most absolute of terms. Personae non gratae, period. And guys who are capable of creating their shot who are also average or better on defense tend to be quite a bit more expensive. Given how crowded the Mavs' cap is, I just don't see how you're going to get a guy like that, and especially not without losing DJJ as well, which could make any such acquisition close to being a wash. 

I think the only real solution for the Mavs moving forward is to have phenomenally great, no-worse-than-top-five-in-the-league scouting. Get the guys we need on rookie scale. I think there's a nearly airtight argument to be made that, given what's coming with Luka's supermax, the only way they're ever going to replace Kyrie's roles on the team is by finding the league's next Brunson in the next couple of drafts or undrafted free agent groups (and not losing him via screwing up his rookie deal).

[Luka77]

The solution to the offensive problem is not to go get someone who is 1) inefficient, 2) not great at team play, and especially 3) a problem for their own team on defense. Hell, if that's the goal, just re-sign THJ at a ridiculous rate.

I'm not sure I understand this trend right now of having created nearly the perfect defensive team around Luka and Kyrie and wanting to torpedo that. Landlord and Lively manning the middle. PJail. DJJ. Exum and/or Green to help with defensive effort (if not results) off the bench. Maxi when healthy. With those guys next to them, Luka and Kyrie are playing the best defense of their lives, because they have those other guys to shore them up as they sell out their defensive approaches. When THJ plays, it hurts the team right now. When Hardy plays, it hurts the team right now. 

Should the Mavs work on getting one or two strong offensive players this summer? Sure! But guys who are below average or worse on defense are unwelcome in the most absolute of terms. Personae non gratae, period. And guys who are capable of creating their shot who are also average or better on defense tend to be quite a bit more expensive. Given how crowded the Mavs' cap is, I just don't see how you're going to get a guy like that, and especially not without losing DJJ as well, which could make any such acquisition close to being a wash. 

I think the only real solution for the Mavs moving forward is to have phenomenally great, no-worse-than-top-five-in-the-league scouting. Get the guys we need on rookie scale. I think there's a nearly airtight argument to be made that, given what's coming with Luka's supermax, the only way they're ever going to replace Kyrie's roles on the team is by finding the league's next Brunson in the next couple of drafts or undrafted free agent groups (and not losing him via screwing up his rookie deal).

First Simons unlike THJ can create his own shoot for himself and for others.  He averages 5.5 assists which is more than Kyrie.  That is hardly someone that doesn't play team ball.  Also Simons is a .386 career three point shooter (43% catch and shoot) better than THJ .36 career shooting.  Simons can spread the floor and create/drive on close outs much better than THJ.  The Mavs could definitely use a floor spacer if nothing else.  Botttom line Simons is a much much better player than THJ.

Moreover losing THJ, Powell, Hardy and a draft pick do not take away from the current defense.  It's not like the Mavs are trading defenders for more offense so Iam not seeing how adding Simons would torpedo the defense.  

I agree with you on Mavs needing to always look to churn the bottom of the roster by scouting and player development.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Ya, not getting where the love for players like Sexton and Simons comes for, at least for this team. Our needs in priority:
1. starting SF/PF (DFF upgrade)
2. backup PG/SG (Exum upgrade)
3. backup PF/C (Maxi replacement)

Notice THJ replacement doesn't make the top 3? When you have Hardy on the roster, why would we spend capital to replace THJ?

[Luka77]

Ya, not getting where the love for players like Sexton and Simons comes for, at least for this team.  Our needs in priority:
1. starting SF/PF (DFF upgrade)
2. backup PG/SG (Exum upgrade)
3. backup PF/C (Maxi replacement)

Notice THJ replacement doesn't make the top 3?  When you have Hardy on the roster, why would we spend capital to replace THJ?

Where does finding Kyries eventual replacement fall?  I think Simons would fill the THJ/Hardy role until Kyrie starts showing signs of slippage which may be coming within the next few years. He would also take over Exums ball handling duties (#2).

[Scott41theMavs]

Ya, not getting where the love for players like Sexton and Simons comes for, at least for this team.  Our needs in priority:
1. starting SF/PF (DFF upgrade)
2. backup PG/SG (Exum upgrade)
3. backup PF/C (Maxi replacement)

Notice THJ replacement doesn't make the top 3?  When you have Hardy on the roster, why would we spend capital to replace THJ?

Who's DFF?

I know it's not DJJ.

[The Jom]

Who's DFF?

I know it's not DJJ.

Somebody’s report card

[RGP1981]

I'm sticking with Iso Joe on my wish list this summer, even though the chances may be slim (as some have correctly pointed out). It would be real good to have a shooter like that coming off the bench.

I think the Mavs FO should tamper away... get him to ask out of OKC, by extending him early on a higher deal (like the Pels did with Herb Jones last year) and then trade him to the Mavericks. #PlayaPowaa