Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[dirkfansince1998]

I personally think Gafford is going to be a backup soon.  May not happen next year if this is working, but I think he is an elite backup center.  What is their price tag for a backup good center.  12-13 million?  I hope the mavs are proactive with resigning him before he gets to free agency.  At the very least, he has a reasonable contract that can be moved down the road.  Having two guys who are elite attacking the rim is one of the reasons why this has worked and clearly something Kidd wants.  I am in no hurry to break it up.

The main reason why I would hold onto Gafford is Lively's durability. Gafford seems like the kind of player that can give you 80 games. Lively's rookie season was almost Kleber-esque when it comes to minor injuries and him missing games. He only played 55 games.
Not the worst idea to have a backup that can also start 20 games per season.

[fifteenth]

I think we need Lively, Gafford and Kleber

[Mavs2021]

The main reason why I would hold onto Gafford is Lively's durability. Gafford seems like the kind of player that can give you 80 games. Lively's rookie season was almost Kleber-esque when it comes to minor injuries and him missing games. He only played 55 games.
Not the worst idea to have a backup that can also start 20 games per season.

Preach.

I still think they´ll trade Powell for a very minor asset. Stretch-waive THJ, if they can´t find a bigger deal involving Green or Kleber and just re-sign DJJ. Add a couple 2nd round picks and a young veteran and we are good to go. That should be do-able, while getting DJJ something like a 36-40/4-ish deal. 

Hard to tell what he´ll get offered. If somebody comes with a 60/4+ offer, the whole discussion is over anyway. Unless they think DJJ is so hard to replace that they spend a big asset (1st round pick) to flat out dump a THJ/Powell package.

[Chicagojk]

Preach.

I still think they´ll trade Powell for a very minor asset. Stretch-waive THJ, if they can´t find a bigger deal involving Green or Kleber and just re-sign DJJ. Add a couple 2nd round picks and a young veteran and we are good to go. That should be do-able, while getting DJJ something like a 36-40/4-ish deal. 

Hard to tell what he´ll get offered. If somebody comes with a 60/4+ offer, the whole discussion is over anyway. Unless they think DJJ is so hard to replace that they spend a big asset (1st round pick) to flat out dump a THJ/Powell package.

If the Mavs do the improbable and Jones continue to play well, there is a chance someone Bruce Brown’s him.  In that scenario, like Brown, jones needs to take the money.  I don’t know how many teams have money to burn this offseason at this point.  I don’t expect it to happen but if Jones continues to play well, it only takes one team

[Chicagojk]

The main reason why I would hold onto Gafford is Lively's durability. Gafford seems like the kind of player that can give you 80 games. Lively's rookie season was almost Kleber-esque when it comes to minor injuries and him missing games. He only played 55 games.
Not the worst idea to have a backup that can also start 20 games per season.

Yep, I wouldn’t even mind Gafford continuing to start next year.  At some point, Lively will be too good to come off the bench.  At this point they are a pretty equal pairing.  I sort of feel like Gafford has a little fragile psyche and tends to get down on himself.  lively doesn’t.  So maybe him starting may be a way to keep him out of a funk.  lively typically enters the game early anyway.

Gafford has not been as good as he was in the regular season but you also need to remember this is his first playoffs.  A lot of those 7-8 dunk games you get in the regular season disappear in the playoffs against good teams.  He has left some meat on the bone in some of these games and needs to hit his free throws.  His defensive rebounding needs to get better as well.  I know you mention his plus/minus but I don’t think that tells the full story.  I think he has played his role in both series.  Some bad, some pretty good.  Let’s see how he does against Minny.

[KillerLeft]

Gafford hasn't played well in the playoffs yet?  He averaged 11 pts, 7.5 rbds and 2 blocks on 61% shooting vs OKC. 

Good grief, I knew there was a reason I don't post here.  Just a bunch of nonsense.

Gafford’s +/- was the worst on the team. Lively’s (his direct replacement) was the best. I don’t have time to find it right now because I’m on the go, but cumulatively in this past series, Lively was something like +71 and Gafford was like -65…those aren’t the exact numbers, because it’s from memory, but it was something along those crazy lines. 

What is it you think I’m missing?

[DallasMaverick]

Gafford’s +/- was the worst on the team. Lively’s (his direct replacement) was the best. I don’t have time to find it right now because I’m on the go, but cumulatively in this past series, Lively was something like +71 and Gafford was like -65…those aren’t the exact numbers, because it’s from memory, but it was something along those crazy lines. 

What is it you think I’m missing?

The noise of a small sample size.

2 teams? 10-ish games?

It’s sort of like the bias against Timmy right now.  Look at his entire body of work, and it’s pretty decent.

[KillerLeft]

Yep, I wouldn’t even mind Gafford continuing to start next year.  At some point, Lively will be too good to come off the bench. 

I’m with you on the hope that Gifford fits better against Minnesota than he did against LAC or OKC, but I’m not hopeful, exactly. Does anyone actually believe the Mavs’ best way forward is to try to fight Minnesota’s size with their own? Minnesota’s size is the DPOY, a borderline all-star who’s featured, offensively, and the 6MOTY. Dallas is throwing Lively (who I’d rather have than any of them, moving forward, but he’s a rookie) and Gafford, who has literally (quite literally) been the Mavs’ worst big minute player in these playoffs. 

Would anyone here not jump at the chance to switch Kleber out for Gafford, assuming you couldn’t have both? Pulling the Minnesota bigs out of the paint was to be the most likely path to Mavs victory in this series (just as it was against Gobert two years ago) and he’d also be infinitely better defensively than Gafford. I just don’t understand what people are watching, sometimes. 

As to the statement quoted above, Lively has been too good to come off the bench since he became the starter like a week or two into the season. I can only conclude that Jason kid believes Gafford would be even less effective if you were coming off the beach, because the way they are playing down the stretch makes it clear that he understands how how much better Lively is right now.

[KillerLeft]

The noise of a small sample size.

2 teams? 10-ish games?

It’s sort of like the bias against Timmy right now.  Look at his entire body of work, and it’s pretty decent.

I mean… Except WATCHING the games, it was clear that Gafford was getting killed on defense even before I knew about those numbers. Sure, it was two series against two teams, that’s a decent point, but what’s not debatable is that he was BAD in those two series. The numbers aren’t telling me that, they are backing it up.

[dirkfansince1998]

The noise of a small sample size.

2 teams? 10-ish games?

It’s sort of like the bias against Timmy right now.  Look at his entire body of work, and it’s pretty decent.

Also the prediction of some posters (including Killerleft). It doesn't take away from his regular season performance (just like in Exum's case) but him struggling in playoff scenarios that are all about mismatch hunting isn't a suprise.
Just like it wasn't suprising that Kleber (prior to his injury) looked way better compared to the regular season. All of a sudden switchability and shooting are more valuable than a big body in the paint.

Once again. This isn't about Gafford hate. This is about ways to create space to bring back DJJ.

[mvossman]

If the Mavs do the improbable and Jones continue to play well, there is a chance someone Bruce Brown’s him.  In that scenario, like Brown, jones needs to take the money.  I don’t know how many teams have money to burn this offseason at this point.  I don’t expect it to happen but if Jones continues to play well, it only takes one team

I'm not sure a Bruce Brown contract is better than what he could get from Mavs (or someone else).  That was essentially a 1 year contract for 22 mil and a guarantee to be traded.  What is Bruce Brown's value now?  I don't know that money has to be the only factor in these kind of decisions.

[Jakeospikez]

Nah def don't trade Gafford. This team deserves the chance to mostly run it back with another year of development from the young players. Gafford doesn't have to invade on Lively's minutes, Lively starts next season. He's barely above MLE and if he's bad for whatever reason he just doesn't get played a lot that game. Lively had almost 30 mins in game 6. I wouldn't overreact to Gafford's playoff +/-, I'd rather say he's not playing optimally because of all of his injuries he's been dealing with. He almost broke Wilt's record and a ton of those fgs weren't dunks. His close range touch and scoring is elite. He has been missing a lot of those in the playoffs and based on what I saw I wouldn't say it's just the big matchup. If he comes off the bench he should be the one feasting on the other team's backup big as well. He can spot start or play heavier mins if the other bigs are out. Maxi doesn't have much tread on the tires left and he can't even play a ton in the regular season without breaking down so what are you gonna do? OMax would need to grow up quick or you trade for another Maxi type player. Also don't forget Gafford is young and still has room for growth. I'd look elsewhere to make room for DJJ.

[mvossman]

Two thoughts on this.

First, we could also try to dump Kleber to a team with cap space. I know, we love him and he‘s holding up the well-established German guy from Wurzburg tradition - which is a beautiful city about an hour away from me by the way - but in reality he doesn’t fit Luka‘s timeline and is far too unreliable from an injury perspective for the 11 million he costs us, for example compared to DJJ. That way we keep Hardaway‘s contract until the deadline, where it will reach it‘s highest trade value and could get us a nice asset from a team that changes from trying to win the championship to trying to win the lottery midseason.

Second, I feel exactly the same about Lively needing 30+ minutes to maximize his growth gradient. But what if he‘s coming back from the offseason ready to get 10 of those minutes at power forward next to Gafford in the role of Kleber? Similar to Wemby or Chet, who are sometimes playing the four, but without their ballhandling tasks and more in a stay in the corner and stretch the floor kind of role? Problem solved, you can play physical and athletic for 48 minutes at center with Gafford and Lively each getting 30 minutes per night.

Maxi would be more expensive to dump because he has two more years left and has no value to a rebuilding team.  He has more value to us than Timmy, while being more expensive to dump.  

I don't see Lively every playing power forward.  If he can legit hit open 3's, then he will be a great alternative to Maxi for 5 out offense.  I think adding a traditional center to the mix would take away the offensive value and not really add anything to defense.

[KillerLeft]

Nah def don't trade Gafford. This team deserves the chance to mostly run it back with another year of development from the young players. Gafford doesn't have to invade on Lively's minutes, Lively starts next season. He's barely above MLE and if he's bad for whatever reason he just doesn't get played a lot that game. Lively had almost 30 mins in game 6. I wouldn't overreact to Gafford's playoff +/-, I'd rather say he's not playing optimally because of all of his injuries he's been dealing with. He almost broke Wilt's record and a ton of those fgs weren't dunks. His close range touch and scoring is elite. He has been missing a lot of those in the playoffs and based on what I saw I wouldn't say it's just the big matchup. If he comes off the bench he should be the one feasting on the other team's backup big as well. He can spot start or play heavier mins if the other bigs are out. Maxi doesn't have much tread on the tires left and he can't even play a ton in the regular season without breaking down so what are you gonna do? OMax would need to grow up quick or you trade for another Maxi type player. Also don't forget Gafford is young and still has room for growth. I'd look elsewhere to make room for DJJ.

It's certainly possible that he's dealing with some injuries, I'm sure a great many players still in the playoffs are. Most, even. 

I certainly agree that might benefit from a training camp and increased familiarity with the team's defensive systems. 

I am all for keeping him around if the new MBT deems it the correct move. 

I just think he'll never be a great defender at the 5, especially in the context of the modern game, and that Lively is clearly the guy you want, moving forward. A $12 Million backup might be a luxury that can be forgone, if necessary.

[KillerLeft]

I don't see Lively every playing power forward.  If he can legit hit open 3's, then he will be a great alternative to Maxi for 5 out offense.  I think adding a traditional center to the mix would take away the offensive value and not really add anything to defense.

Yeah, Lively isn't a guy who can play with another center. He's fast/quick enough, right now, at 20, to be a plus at the 5 in most matchups, but he's going to slow down. My guess is that he ends up closer to dinosaur than 4 (though hopefully not too close).

[The Jom]

Maxi would be more expensive to dump because he has two more years left and has no value to a rebuilding team.  He has more value to us than Timmy, while being more expensive to dump.  

I don't see Lively every playing power forward.  If he can legit hit open 3's, then he will be a great alternative to Maxi for 5 out offense.  I think adding a traditional center to the mix would take away the offensive value and not really add anything to defense.

Wait, what??? When did we start talking about dumping Maxi? No!!! (And no way doing so would cost assets.)

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I’m fine keeping Gafford around as the physical “innings eater” to save wear and tear on D-Live. Two great roll men for Luka. And PJ at 5 should not be an every game thing. Keep them fresh for the deep playoff runs we are about to make annually. 

But I agree, from an asset management standpoint it probably makes sense to move Gafford, especially since he and his agent will want to get him paid. Maybe after next season? Gives us time to find a low cost replacement.

[RGP1981]

Trying to get rid of Gafford now has shades of Cuban getting rid of Tyson Chandler.

Lively can't play 40+ MPG in a game. He'll get fouled out and/or succumb to injuries.

Does Gafford have flaws? Sure. Lively does too, and he's still a rookie. So I'm totally fine with Gafford @ $13.4M in an equal rotation with Lively over the next two seasons, to have two great roll men for Luka at all times. An equal rotation between the two also means their price will be automatically kept lower, instead of giving one guy the bulk of the minutes and letting him think he's more important than he is, thus risking him asking for a bigger salary than he should get down the line.

And actually, I want to add a 3rd guy to this rotation, i.e., Jericho Sims, to cover for when or if one of Lively or Gafford get injured or in foul trouble... as well as to show them that they are replaceable by the 3rd guy.

Gafford + Lively total next season is just $18.4M... or a mere 13% of the $141M cap max... a small price to pay to have the Center position covered.

While THJ costs $16.1M by himself, to cover nothing. 

And Kyrie is $40M, whereas Dejounte is $25.5M... a $14.5M difference.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Unpopular post incoming:

If you want to save money right away for DJJ without giving up the deadline asset of Hardaway's expiring, I think dealing Gafford could be the answer.

He hasn't played well in the playoffs (yet), but he's still getting mentioned by the talking heads as a reason for the Mavs' strong finish. It's so beyond clear that Lively is the real reason for that, and Lively needs to be a 30 minutes per guy next year. Gafford gets paid too much for the type of role that's left over, because some (maybe a lot) of those other 18 minutes need to go to a Kleber type in order to stretch defenses, guard with more switching, etc - all the things we talk about here all the time.  But, you do need a Gafford TYPE around for the games Lively misses or the odd night he gets in foul trouble. You know, just in case. But again, Gafford, while obviously not in the same class as Lively, is better than THAT role, and certainly gets paid more than a guy in that role should.

So, is there a way the Mavs can A) move Gafford for less money returning (for DJJ purposes) while also B) picking up a good replacement for him at 3rd center at minimum or maybe BAE salary level, and MAYBE even C) recoup some draft capital along the way?

I would be open to that type of thing, personally. It would obviously require identifying the right guy (better than McGee, for example).

You are right.  This is unpopular…at least with me.

Our center rotation just averaged 22 points and 22 boards a game to move us to the WCF and you want to break that up?  Our two headed monster at the center position is a strength and as currently constructed there is still opportunity to play the 5-out center’ that you seem to think is a ‘requirement’.  It is a choice and we have that choice (or at least we do when Maxi is healthy).  It doesn’t require moving Gafford to play it.  

But, pretty clearly, 48 minutes of Gafford/Lively is also a viable strategy (in the ‘modern’ NBA).  Two successful playoff rounds show us that much more than some small sample size +/-.  And where was this when Gafford was +17 in the closeout game against the Clippers.  We don’t even get to see Lively look good against OKC without that.  Between Lively, Gafford, PJ, Maxi and OMax eventually replacing Maxi, we have a fantastic situation at C/PF.  I see no logic in breaking that up.  

I also don’t want to trade Green or Maxi.  THJ is the obvious candidate.  My preference there is to wait till the TDL and combine him with the 2025 pick.  But, there are two issues with that.  THJ continues to block Hardy and it would require DJJ take the TP MLE.  If we trade THJ this summer, I’d rather it be for a less expensive player.  This idea of getting nothing (or worse, paying to move him) is a bad idea.  There are too many potential opportunities with THJ to waste the asset just to clear space.  The good news is Nico and Co have been much more creative than any of us dreamed the last two trade seasons.  Hopefully that will continue.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Our center rotation just averaged 22 points and 22 boards a game to move us to the WCF and you want to break that up?  Our two headed monster at the center position is a strength and as currently constructed 

But, pretty clearly, 48 minutes of Gafford/Lively is also a viable strategy (in the ‘modern’ NBA).  Two successful playoff rounds show us that much more than some small sample size +/-.  Between Lively, Gafford, PJ, Maxi and OMax eventually replacing Maxi, we have a fantastic situation at C/PF.  I see no logic in breaking that up.  

I also don’t want to trade Green or Maxi.  THJ is the obvious candidate.  My preference there is to wait till the TDL and combine him with the 2025 pick.  But, there are two issues with that.  THJ continues to block Hardy and it would require DJJ take the TP MLE.  If we trade THJ this summer, I’d rather it be for a less expensive player.  This idea of getting nothing (or worse, paying to move him) is a bad idea.  There are too many potential opportunities with THJ to waste the asset just to clear space.  

+1
I'd only trade Gafford if he grumbles for minutes, but he seems like a good guy and is happy to be a Mav. 
And why gamble for a replacement who -- "on paper could be better" but also could turn to be an ill fit? Are there really names out there we can trade Gaff for? Whoever the Mavs bring as a replacement will probably be inferior to Gafford in rebounding and interior D. For the first time in so many years, it doesn't feel like the Mavs would be man-handled on the boards by big teams. The Mavs can now challenge shots in the interior and score in the interior too.

On the subject of Maxi -- until the Mavs have someone of that skill, you retain him. A PF with Maxi-like skills are very hard to find.
As for Green, dude isn't bad, you also retain him unless there's a clear upgrade.

DJJ is a must sign because I don't think Paul George is going to be a Mav. This means the Mavs have to deal THJ away.