Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[Mavs2021]

HARD CAP MATH - To use the bigger MLE at all, you can't go over $179M Apron 1, no matter what, so a team has to leave a cushion. Let's pencil in a limit of $178M.

Without counting Lawson, the Mavs already have 12 players at $173.537M. That includes Kyrie's incentives, all of which count on Hard Cap Math. They have to have at least 14 players (and likely prefer 15). DJJ fills one of those empty slots. Hard cap math says each minimum salary will cost AT LEAST $2.094M this year (there are minor exceptions to that number, but Mavs are extremely unlikely to be able to do one like that.). So that leaves 2 empty slots (Lawson can fill one of those slots if you wish) and 2 minimum salary players will cost at least $4.188M.

That puts the Mavs right now at $177.724M. At that number, you can either spend the taxpayer MLE of $5.2M (and go past Apron 1 with no barrier), or spend NT MLE but you only have spending room under the Hard Cap of about $0.276M right now.

If you trade THJ (either alone, or in a package), and the other team needs to salary match to do the deal, the biggest spread allowed is $7.5M, which then offers room for an increased NT MLE of $7.776M.

If you SW THJ, there's the cost of the dead salary and the cost of refilling that salary slot, so you gain $8.702M and now have the ability to spend a NT MLE of about $9M.

To get a bigger NT MLE via a trade of THJ (or anyone else), you have to find a team with cap room who won't have to salary match, and who will use some of their cap room to take THJ.

Everything gets easier if DJJ would take the $5.2M TxMLE, because then there's no hard cap until you get up to Apron 2 (about $190M).

We have the 56th pick. Spotrac says the minimum salary with no experience is $1.16M. 

Wouldn´t that be the 2nd round pick salary? 
Can you still trade $6m in cash?
How about Dwight Powell* + two 2028 2nd round picks + cash for the Pistons TPE + 2025 2nd round pick.

That should take us to $173M for 12 players including Lawson + two 2nd round picks. 

$178.6M is the projected apron. So we are $5.6M below it. 

So a reasonable THJ trade could get us to $10M-12M?

Shamet has an $11M non guaranteed contract for next season.
Bertans has an $16M ($5M guaranteed) for next season.
Schroeder has a $13M guaranteed contract for next two season.
Thybulle has a $11M guaranteed contract for next two season.

How much that costs us is a good guess. Maybe stretch-waiving THJ is the easier solution.

That should get us to at least $10M as a starting salary for DJJ. I think he would accept something like 44/4 to stay. Unless of course some dumba** tanking team Bruce Browns him.

Doncic/Hardy/Exum
Irving/Green/Lawson
DJJ/Thybulle/2nd round pick
Washington/Kleber/Omax
Gafford/Lively/2nd round pick

I definitely think it´s doable and I´m sure Nico/Lindsay have people working on this right now.

Then you seriously know more about this stuff, so maybe I´m completely off somewhere in my math/legality.

*Maybe this is where we find out who is truly in charge. I´d hope the new bosses don´t have an unhealthy attachment to towel-waiver Dwight Powell.