Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[Dundalis]

I think you're sleeping on Exum. There's a lot of recency bias on him in these discussions (not just you), and I am in the opposite camp. It wasn't so long ago that he was seen here as the IDEAL 3rd guard to rotate with Luka and Kyrie, because of his skills, his improved shooting, and his defense.

He got injured. While he's healed enough to play, I am guessing he's still a bit hobbled, impacting his effectiveness and shooting in the moment. And now he's seen as yesterdays news, readily discardable.

But I'm guessing the Mavs see him through a different lens than right now, and rightly so. In addition, I suspect that he will at some point again look like the guy we thought was the ideal 3rd guard.

If the Mavs trade THJ for Caruso (which is far from a given, of course, but sticking with the scenario), I find the DS concept valueless. Won't miss THJ. Won't wish we had someone like him. Will be comfortable if the shots are spread around, with multiple players who can hit a 3. Thinking PJW might be even better next year, and need to shoot more, making it all moot (as there's only 1 ball). Will be glad to have plenty of defenders and both-end players at all times, rather than adding matadors.

One other note in general - because of the hard cap issue re Mavs overall payroll, if they are working on a path to more salary for DJJ, those final minimum salary slots will have to either go to players on pure one-year deals, or to players who are rookie, or entering 2nd or 3rd year. Otherwise the minimum salary uses up more of the room under the hard cap, of which they might be needing every bit they can get. The point being, players who are outside those limits probably won't end up on their radar because of the payroll impact. Gotta keep their eye on the target -- DJJ.

The big factor to take away around Exum, is that he cannot be relied upon to play starter minutes, even if one of our two stars is out injured. That's what got him hurt in the first place. He's a guy you pencil in for around 20 mins per game and when healthy he will give you everything you want in a 3rd guard IMO. But you need to limit him to those mins no matter the circumstances because it's pretty clear his body can't handle that load, which is what primarily took him out of the league in the first place.

I might have been right there with you two months ago, but I actually think DJJ is a better POA defender. I think he’s good enough at it to where you’d be giving up some of your defensive versatility with Caruso. 

Before this season, I wouldn’t have thought DJJ could handle that role consistently, but with so many big ball handlers in the league right now, he ends up there more often than not, and he can even keep up with some of the smaller guys, which is great, because he smothers them with his length. But, he gives you the option of moving him off of the ball where he can still wreck havoc in situations wherein Luka is able to handle one of the guards.

If you switch him out for Caruso, you are stuck with Caruso on a backcourt player whether they are good enough to justify using your best defender on them or not. This leaves Dončić stuck guarding threes and fours all the time, even when they are Paul George types. Trust me, I get that there’s an argument to be made about the offensive benefits of Caruso. A couple of months ago, I would have thought exactly as you are, wanting to get quicker and thinking of Luka more overtly as a forward. 

Idk… watching this defensive length that Dallas has working is winning me over. I am very close to just accepting and believing, finally, that Jones Jr is a special defensive player and the perfect fit on this team. I just think he gives you options that Caruso wouldn’t, matchup wise.

I would be thrilled to have Caruso as the third guard behind Dončić and Kyrie Irving, but again, I think his britches are a little bigger than that.

The way Gafford and PJ have not just played, but also allowed other players like DJJ to lock into place has been something to see. DJJ was a solid but not particularly elite defender when he's your primary do it all wing defensive piece, but when you lock him into a role next to essentially a bigger version of himself and consistent rim protection throughout the game, all of a sudden his defensive performance takes a big leap. He couldn't make a mistake before, now he can and someone else erases it. All his strengths as a defender are amplified. Same with PJ locking into this lineup when you look at his defense vs his defense with the Hornets. Yeah he might be more motivation playing for us, but it's more than that, his defensive strengths are significantly amplified playing with DJJ and Lively/Gafford vs playing with less ideal defensive fits. Obviously when players play with better fits offensively or defensively, their performance increases, but it's just almost unbelievable the size of the improvement. I'd be interested to know how often a team goes from a near bottom 5 defense to a top 5 defense within the confines of the same season over as significant a sample size. It's got to be a pretty rare occurrence.